Is BODB11 worth it? Analysis of Bocaina Infra FIC FI-Infra

Recommendation: ACCUMULATE · Rating 6.8/10

Analysis and recommendation

BODB11 lends money to infrastructure companies—sanitation, fiber-optic internet, toll roads, cell towers—by purchasing tax-exempt infrastructure debentures (debt securities issued by these companies), and passes the interest along every month free of income tax for individual investors. The securities are selected by Bocaina Capital, an infrastructure-specialized manager with a solid track record: since 2021, net assets have returned 56% compared to 50% for the benchmark government bond.

In 2026, the fund lagged (net assets +2.4% through September, compared to +9.8% for the government bond) as the market began demanding higher yields from all companies following difficulties at Aegea, Raízen, and others—representing mark-to-market losses rather than defaults in the portfolio. The dividend of R$ 0.09 to R$ 0.10 per month is real, derived from the interest paid by the companies and including inflation.

At R$ 7.94, you pay R$ 97 for R$ 100 of net assets and receive approximately 14.4% per year tax-exempt (roughly 16.9% on a taxed investment). The price of this risk: the largest borrower (Alares, internet) represents 13.6% of the fund, and most securities carry A/AA ratings rather than AAA. It suits investors seeking tax-exempt monthly income who accept unit price volatility driven by interest rates; it does not suit those who need quick access to their cash. ACCUMULATE in tranches as part of a tax-exempt fixed-income allocation—not as its sole component.

Investment thesis

BODB11 offers a vehicle to purchase, via an R$ 8 unit, a portfolio of 66 infrastructure debentures yielding a gross IPCA+10.7% that passes through all cash flows tax-exempt on a monthly basis. The thesis rests on three pillars: (1) high real yield—roughly IPCA+9.5% p.a. net of fees for buyers at R$ 7.94, compared to ~IPCA+5.1% for a Tesouro IPCA+ government bond post-tax; (2) a manager that originates proprietary credit and has proven its ability to enforce collections (RAHD11); (3) potential capital gains if credit spreads, which widened by over 1 percentage point in 2026, compress once again. The trade-off involves mid-sized corporate credit risk and concentration among top borrowers.

Points of attention and risks

Concentration in the largest borrower: Alares (13.6% of the fund)

Two debentures issued by Alares (a fiber-optic internet provider controlled by American private equity firm Grain) account for 13.6% of net assets (ALAR14 9.2% + CONX12 4.4%). Fitch reaffirmed its A(bra) rating with a stable outlook in July/2026, and leverage stands at roughly 3x debt/EBITDA, though the agency itself projects negative free cash flow in 2026 and 2027 due to network capital expenditures. A default would cost several months of distributions. The top 5 borrowers account for 43% of the fund.

Units fluctuate with interest rates and credit sentiment (mark-to-market)

Debentures are marked to market daily. In 2026, even as NTN-B benchmark bonds gained in price, the market began demanding a wider premium from all companies (the median spread on tax-exempt debentures moved from −0.68% in January to +0.39% in September), leaving BODB11's net assets 7.4 percentage points behind the benchmark NTN-B through September. This represents a paper loss, which is reversible if spreads tighten, but it may persist for months.

Average credit quality, with select names under stress

Only 16.5% of the portfolio is AAA; 92.9% is A- or higher. Roughly 5% is allocated to distressed securities: Ligga Telecom (1.4%, downgraded to CCC-.br by Moody's in March/2026, marked at IPCA+28%), Águas do Rio 1/Aegea (1.7%, under scrutiny since Aegea delayed its financial statements in April), Bevap (BBB+, 1.4%), and unrated securities (Coruripe and Órigo CRI, 2.6%). These securities are already marked at steep discounts, which limits further downside, but they represent where a default could materialize.

Leverage of ~8% via repurchase agreements

The fund held 108.4% of its net assets allocated to credit in September 2026, financing the difference through reverse repurchase agreements backed by its own debentures. This boosts the yield, but amplifies unit price volatility in both directions and creates rollover requirements during stress periods.

Distributions include inflation—the unit price does not grow on its own

Bocaina distributes the portfolio's entire yield (real interest + IPCA) every month. This maximizes income, but means net assets are not adjusted for inflation: in real terms, the unit value shrinks if you spend 100% of distributions. It also causes distributions to vary with that month's IPCA index (low or negative IPCA means lower distributions, such as the R$ 0.09 paid from Jul–Sep/26).

Modest liquidity and size

Average daily trading volume of roughly R$ 800k (12.9% generated by the market maker) and net assets of R$ 531M. Buy and sell orders exceeding R$ 50k–80k require split execution across multiple days. During sector stress, exchange-traded unit prices may fall further than net asset value (as seen in 2024, when the market dropped 12% while net assets rose 0.7%).

Regulatory risk regarding tax exemption (Law 12.431)

The individual tax exemption has previously faced legislative threats (Provisional Measure 1.303/2025, defeated in Congress in October 2025). Current rules apply to previously issued debentures; future changes would likely target new issuances, but would diminish the asset class's appeal and could pressure unit prices.

Is BODB11 trustworthy?

Our current reading of BODB11 is ACCUMULATE, with a score of 6.8/10. This score comes neither from the manager nor the administrator: it is Rico aos Poucos' editorial assessment, built from the documents the fund files with the CVM. Below is what supports it — and what argues against it.

Among the 23 FI-Infras, BODB11 features one of the highest yields (gross IPCA+10.7%) and a manager that has outperformed NTN-B bonds since inception, though it carries lower-rated credit (16.5% AAA), 8% leverage, a small net asset base (R$ 531M), and average daily trading volume of R$ 800k. Sector leaders (KDIF11, CDII11, CPTI11) deliver similar income with higher-rated portfolios and, in the case of CDII11 and CPTI11, discounts wider than BODB11's current 3%.

Scenarios for BODB11

ScenarioDescription
baseSpreads stabilize and the Selic continues to decline gradually. Distribution of R$ 0.09–0.10/month (~14% tax-exempt) and book value flat to slightly positive. Expected total return of ~IPCA+9% to IPCA+10% per year (14–15% nominal), tax-exempt.
otimistaSpreads close back to 2025 levels and NTN-B yields drop. Capital gains of 5–8% on book value (duration 5.7 × compression of ~1 point) plus the distribution; the exchange unit price returns to a P/BV of 1.0–1.05. Return of 20–25% in 12 months.
pessimistaNew wave of redemptions in the sector or trouble at a major borrower (Alares, Highline, Rota dos Grãos). Book value drops 5–10%, exchange unit price returns to a P/BV of 0.85 (R$ 7.00), distribution may pull back to R$ 0.08. 12-month return close to zero, or negative if a default with loss occurs.

Conclusion

We re-analyzed BODB11 from scratch, security by security: the complete portfolio from the Sep/2026 report, the portfolio submitted to the CVM, the official distribution history since 2022, and daily book value through Oct 20, 2026. Two important corrections relative to the July version: the fund paid R$ 1.22 per unit in 2025 (not R$ 0.34) and 2026 distributions are stable, not growing at 70%; and the portfolio is not "granular" — the top five borrowers account for 43% of the fund, with Alares alone at 13.6%.

What the fund delivers: a portfolio of 66 infrastructure debentures, driven by sanitation (34%) and telecom (25%), with gross carry of IPCA+10.7% and a spread of 2.9 points over government bonds. Bocaina distributes this carry monthly — R$ 0.09 to R$ 0.10 per unit, or ~14.4% annualized tax-exempt at a price of R$ 7.94. For current buyers, the implied internal rate of return sits around IPCA+9.5% per year net of fees, compared to ~IPCA+5.1% for a Tesouro IPCA+ bond after income tax.

The manager has a solid, verifiable track record: net assets up +56% since Dec/2021 against +50% for the NTN-B, full recovery (with profit) of the portfolio's only material default (RAHD11, 2025), and an ongoing unit buyback program. The weak point in the track record is the starting point: the fund launched with real yields near 5% and has yet to outperform the net CDI on a cumulative basis.

2026 has been a tough year for the entire asset class, not just BODB11 in particular: following Aegea, Raízen, and others, FI-Infras suffered R$ 30.8B in redemptions and spreads widened by over 1 point. The fund's net assets rose only 2.4% through September, compared to 9.8% for the NTN-B. This exact movement is what currently offers buyers the highest credit premium since 2024 — and the manager views this as a good entry point, much like 2023 (IDA-IPCA Infra +14.9% over 12 months).

Risks you must accept: mid-market corporate credit (only 16.5% AAA, ~5% in stressed names), concentration in major borrowers, leverage of ~8%, and a unit price that does not track inflation because inflation is paid out as distributions. With a P/BV of 0.97, the price is fair, not a bargain — CDII11, CPTI11, and BDIF11 trade at deeper discounts.

How to position in your portfolio: BODB11 fits within the IPCA+/tax-exempt credit fixed-income allocation, not the real estate fund allocation. It makes sense as one of two or three FI-Infras, combined with a more conservative one (KDIF11) or Tesouro IPCA+, sized at up to ~1/3 of your tax-exempt credit allocation and up to ~5% of your total portfolio, bought in installments while reinvesting at least the inflation-equivalent portion of distributions. Reevaluate if: Alares suffers a downgrade or covenant breach; distributions fall below R$ 0.08 for two months without a low-IPCA explanation; leverage exceeds 15%; or P/BV exceeds 1.03 (becoming expensive) or drops below 0.90 without credit news (becoming cheap).

Frequently asked questions

Is BODB11 good? Is it worth investing?

Current recommendation: ACCUMULATE. Rating 6.8/10. BODB11 lends money to infrastructure companies—sanitation, fiber-optic internet, toll roads, cell towers—by purchasing tax-exempt infrastructure debentures (debt securities issued by these companies) , and passes the interest along every month free of income tax for individual…

BODB11: buy or sell?

Our current read on BODB11 is “ACCUMULATE”. Rating 6.8/10. Assess it against your risk profile and the points of attention listed above.

What are BODB11's risks?

The main points of attention for Bocaina Infra FIC FI-Infra include: Concentration in the largest borrower: Alares (13.6% of the fund); Units fluctuate with interest rates and credit sentiment (mark-to-market); Average credit quality, with select names under stress; Leverage of ~8% via repurchase agreements.