Recommendation: ACCUMULATE · Rating 7.2/10
HSLG11 is a technically premium logistics fund: 6 AAA last-mile warehouses, 100% occupancy since Nov/2024, R$ 1.389B NAV, and a 9.5% p.a. distribution yield on a unit price of R$ 84.54 (P/BV 0.76). The thesis is simple: stable monthly income with rent-revision upside (rents 25-30% below market in SP/MG), CRI leverage (R$ 408M, 91.6% IPCA, average rate 7.68%) that compresses DPU in a high Selic cycle but releases margin when interest rates fall. In 2025, it delivered R$ 8.05/unit (33.2% unitholder return vs IFIX 21.1%). The thesis's biggest risk materialized into a real event: on 08/16/2026, Casas Bahia (30.9% of revenue) filed for court-supervised reorganization and did not pay August rent. The manager maintains the distribution of R$ 0.75/unit on 08/31/2026 (using reserves if necessary), Casas Bahia itself listed the contracts as essential in its filing, and the multi-tenant conversion — underway since Apr/2025 — continues.
Our current reading of HSLG11 is ACCUMULATE, with a score of 7.2/10. This score comes neither from the manager nor the administrator: it is Rico aos Poucos' editorial assessment, built from the documents the fund files with the CVM. Below is what supports it — and what argues against it.
Six AAA warehouses 100% leased (Casas Bahia, Mercado Livre, Bemol) with a P/BV of 0.77, the most discounted among top-tier peers. Leverage via R$ 408M in CRIs (~R$ 4M/month) and a 58% revenue concentration in three names limit the rating, but below-market rents leave room for upward revisions.
Safety in a REIT is not yes or no — it is how much risk you accept. HSLG11 has a medio risk profile. What that means in practice:
| Component | Level |
|---|---|
| Concentração | 3.0 |
| Price volatility | 2.5 |
| Dividend volatility | 2.0 |
| Liquidez | 3.0 |
| Underlying asset risk | 1.5 |
| Financial/leverage risk | 3.0 |
Casas Bahia (30.9% of revenue) filed for court-supervised reorganization on 08/16/2026 — theoretical risk has become a real event. Mercado Livre (13.8%) and Bemol (13.5%) complete the 58% concentration. In 2024-2025, Casas Bahia had already undergone financial restructuring.
Contracts listed as essential in the reorganization filing itself; post-filing rents will be post-petition (priority); multi-tenant conversion underway since Apr/2025; Mercado Livre atypical BTS through 2035; Bemol linked to CRI through 2037.
Financial expenses in Mar/2026 reached R$ 4.0M (vs R$ 13.4M in real estate revenue), consuming 30% of gross revenue. Each -1pp in Selic frees up ~R$ 0.2M/month (~R$ 0.02/unit). Also sensitive to IPCA (43% of debt).
Expenses grow with inflation but so do revenues (91.6% IPCA), albeit with a quarterly lag. Net gain during falling Selic cycles.
Warehouses inaugurated in 2006 (Manaus, SJP), 2012 (Dutra, Contagem), and 2016 (Castelo). Despite AAA standards, assets aged 10-20 years may require substantial capex in 2030-2035 to maintain class status. No significant Contingency Reserve provision (~5% of NAV per bylaws).
Bemol and Casas Bahia (Contagem) have already undergone renovations as part of the acquisition. Brand-new Meli BTS (2025).
13.5% of revenue comes from the Bemol warehouse in Manaus, whose economic model depends on Free Trade Zone tax incentives (valid through 2073). Tax changes could compromise the attractiveness of Bemol's operation even within the atypical lease.
Atypical lease through 2037 + linked CRI provide 12-year contractual protection. 2024-2026 tax reform maintained the regime.
Contagem warehouse (R$ 30/sqm, 11.6% of revenue) has a standard lease expiring Jun/2028 — renewal will depend on BHIA3's financial health. If subleasing does not advance, pressure for renegotiation mounts.
Subleasing underway: target to dilute Casas Bahia concentration to ~20%. Contagem market vacancy at 8.17% (above average).
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Selic falling + IFIX rising | Each -1pp cut in the Selic rate releases ~R$ 0.02 per unit per month. The projected Selic rate of 13.25% by year-end 2026 and 11% over 12 months unlocks margin. P/BV is expected to close toward 1.0 if the thesis materializes. |
| 2026 lease review in SP/MG (Castelo, Dutra, Contagem highways) | Rents 25-30% below market: executing lease reviews on 1 of the 3 assets generates an additional +R$ 0.02-0.05 per unit per month. |
| Casas Bahia sublease advances | Leasing 38-44% of the GLA in Contagem and São José dos Pinhais to third parties dilutes concentration and potentially improves rent per square meter. The rent differential flows to the fund (without altering Casas Bahia's lease payment obligations). |
| Mercado Livre BTS expansion completed | The expansion exercised by Mercado Livre in August 2025 provides revenue growth upon delivery. CRI tranche 4 (R$ 50M) provides financing. |
| Selic rate remains at 14.75% for more than 12 months | A stagflationary environment pressures financial expenses (R$ 4M per month remains). DPU stagnates at R$ 0.72 with no growth. |
| Casas Bahia under court-supervised reorganization | BHIA3 has already undergone restructuring. The risk of a new legal proceeding could lead to compulsory renegotiation of the Contagem and São José dos Pinhais leases—representing a potential loss of up to R$ 0.10 per unit per month. |
| Tax reform affecting the Manaus Free Trade Zone | Tax changes compromising Manaus Free Trade Zone benefits before 2073 would impair the viability of the Bemol operation. The atypical lease running through 2037 provides partial protection. |
The HSLG11 is one of the market's best-structured AAA logistics funds: 6 Class AAA warehouses with 508k sqm of proprietary GLA, 100% occupancy since November 2024, all positioned as last-mile within 30 km of the nearest capital city. R$ 1.389B in net assets, 40,337 unitholders, and a current DPU of R$ 0.72/unit (9.0% dividend yield, P/BV 0.84).
The distinguishing factor between the fund and its peers is its CRI leverage: R$ 408M (net LTV of 20.9%) with 43% linked to IPCA + 7.68% (Bemol) and 57% to CDI + 2.10% (Mercado Livre BTS), generating ~R$ 4M/month in financial expenses. In a high Selic environment (currently 14.75%) this compresses DPU; a decline to 11% (Focus survey) releases ~R$ 0.02-0.03/unit/month.
HSI management has demonstrated rare discipline: proactively cutting DPU in January 2025 (R$ 0.74→0.65) to announce capital preservation, executing the Mercado Livre BTS acquisition (10-year atypical lease), and systematically delivering lease reviews. In 2025, it distributed R$ 8.05/unit and delivered a 33.2% unitholder return (vs. IFIX at 21.1%).
The base case for 2026-2027 is constructive: guidance of R$ 0.72-0.76 (potential floor increase), a declining Selic cycle, Castelo + Dutra lease reviews (rents 25% below market in São Paulo/Minas Gerais), and completed Mercado Livre BTS expansion. Risks are manageable: Casas Bahia represents 30.9% of revenue but features active subleasing; CRI leverage is present but backed by long-term maturities.
Current recommendation: ACCUMULATE. Rating 7.2/10. HSLG11 owns six AAA logistics warehouses in SP, MG, PR, and Manaus — all 100% occupied and leased to Casas Bahia, Mercado Livre, Bemol, and Assaí. The rent from these properties pays its monthly income distribution, tax-free. The manager is HSI (Hemisfério Sul Investimentos, a…
Our current read on HSLG11 is “ACCUMULATE”. Rating 7.2/10. Assess it against your risk profile and the points of attention listed above.
The main points of attention for HSI Logística FII include: R$ 408M CRI leverage (net LTV 20.9%); Casas Bahia (30.9% of revenue) in court-supervised reorganization; Concentration in few tenants (Bemol 13.5%, ML 13.8%); Rents still below market in the SP/MG regions.
HSLG11 is suitable for: Investors wanting AAA logistics brick-and-mortar with predictable and growing monthly income Those betting on the 2026-2027 Selic rate-cut cycle and wanting a leveraged fund to capture repricing Investors with a 3-5 year horizon to harvest upward rent revisions in SP/MG