Recommendation: ACCUMULATE · Rating 6.9/10
Brick-and-mortar logistics real estate fund in a structured transition phase. The Rio Bravo + Tellus management recycled the portfolio between 2024-2026: selling Multimodal Duque de Caxias and International Business Park (heavy/multimodal profile), acquiring last-mile warehouses near SP/MG/BH, and addressing the Contagem vacancy with a 5-year Shopee lease in Feb/2026. The year 2026 carries extraordinary results (R$ 47.7M in capital gains from Duque de Caxias) which will be fully distributed in 1H/26, peaking at R$ 2.55/unit in June. Starting in 2H/26, the recurring DPU drops to R$ 0.45–0.47/unit — a level consistent with the organic cash generation of the stabilized portfolio. With the unit price at R$ 65.75 (updated May 18, 2026) vs. book value of R$ 80.18 (Apr/26), a P/BV of 0.82 provides a margin of safety of ~18% over book value and ~21% over the modeled fair price of R$ 79.50.
Our current reading of TRBL11 is ACCUMULATE, with a score of 6.9/10. This score comes neither from the manager nor the administrator: it is Rico aos Poucos' editorial assessment, built from the documents the fund files with the CVM. Below is what supports it — and what argues against it.
Fourth in terms of the largest discount to the top (P/BV 0.65) and attractive recurring DY, with prominent tenants (Shopee, Braskem, Ambev).
Trails RZZR11 due to DPU volatility (recurring R$ 0.43-0.50 vs. R$ 2.68 inflated by capital gains), negative appraisal of Contagem (-28%), and the unreplaced departure of Ambev in Aug/27.
Safety in a REIT is not yes or no — it is how much risk you accept. TRBL11 has a medio risk profile. What that means in practice:
| Component | Level |
|---|---|
| Concentração | 3.5 |
| Price volatility | 3.5 |
| Dividend volatility | 3.5 |
| Liquidez | 2.5 |
| Underlying asset risk | 2.0 |
| Financial/leverage risk | 3.0 |
The DPU of R$ 0.85 distributed in Jan–May/26 incorporates the linearized distribution of the R$ 47.7M capital gain from the sale of Duque de Caxias. The manager's explicit guidance for 2H/26 is R$ 0.45–0.47/unit — investors entering at the current DPU without reading the guidance will face a surprise in July.
Transparent communication from the manager — the June peak of R$ 2.55/unit makes it clear this is a one-time event.
The CBRE appraisal from Dec/2025 dropped Contagem's value by R$ 88M (from ~R$ 311M to R$ 223M) — recorded in balance sheet NAV. The Shopee lease in Feb/26 should partially recompose this at the next appraisal, but until then book value per unit is deflated.
The next appraisal (likely Dec/26) should partially recover — the manager outlines an additional potential upside of ~5% up to book value.
The fund's debt is indexed to IPCA+7.12% — under a baseline scenario where the Selic rate drops to 12% in 2027 and IPCA is at 4.5%, the real cost remains high. The bylaws allow prepayment starting from the 36th month (already passed), but subject to a penalty.
In Feb/26, the manager already front-loaded a principal repayment to reduce the LTV — signaling a willingness to deleverage.
Ambev is the sole tenant of the Feira de Santana warehouse. Leaving without immediate backfill in a region with a very low tenant pipeline would be a material issue.
The build-to-suit (atypical) lease carries a high termination penalty — signaling that Ambev incurs concrete costs to exit.
The manager mentions in Feb/26 a judicial collection of R$ 328M (penalty + rent). It is not included in the guidance and would be an extraordinary upside if materialized — but court proceedings are lengthy and uncertain.
The manager is explicit about not factoring it into the guidance — investors should not price it in.
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Next appraisal to recover Contagem valuation (Dec/26) | With Shopee leased for 5 years, the next CBRE appraisal in Dec/26 is expected to recover R$ 30-50M of the impaired value — book value per unit rises by ~R$ 4-6, improving the P/BV ratio. |
| Falling Selic rate + expensive leverage provide relief | With the Selic rate projected at 12-13% in 2027 (Central Bank Focus Survey), the CRI's IPCA+7.12% rate faces less pressure. Financial expenses decrease, improving recurring earnings. |
| Guarulhos II rent review in 2026-2027 | Tight Guarulhos market (vacancy < 5%) — the manager signals room for upward rent reviews on current leases over the next 12-18 months. |
| Ambev lease maturity (Aug/27) without a backfill | The sole tenant of the Feira de Santana property accounts to 8.6% of revenue. An exit without immediate backfill in a region with a very low pipeline generates prolonged vacancy and breaks recurring cash flow. |
| Shopee capex in Contagem higher than expected | Warehouse adaptation for Shopee in 2H/26 may consume more cash than estimated — putting pressure on financial balances and recurring earnings. |
| Prolonged high Selic rate + cooling logistics cycle | In a scenario where Selic stays above 14% for another 12 months, IFIX remains pressured and the e-commerce/logistics pipeline slows down — upward rent reviews become difficult. |
TRBL11 is a case of an FII undergoing structured transition: the Rio Bravo + Tellus management recycled the portfolio between 2024–2026, shifting away from heavy multimodal assets (Duque de Caxias) toward last-mile logistics near SP/MG/BH. The 5-year Shopee lease in Contagem in Feb/26 addressed the fund's main vacancy and opens the operational stabilization cycle.
The current DPU of R$ 0.85 is artificially high — it incorporates the linearized distribution of the R$ 47.7M capital gain from Duque de Caxias. The manager's explicit guidance is clear: from Jul/26 onward, the recurring distribution drops to R$ 0.45–0.47/unit. This is the metric that matters for the long-term thesis.
The valuation offers a margin of safety: P/BV of 0.82 with a meaningful discount vs the HG logistics peer median (0.96), and a projected recurring dividend yield of 8.4% (at R$ 65.75) close to the peer median (9.2%). Fair price modeled at R$ 79.50 implies ~21% undervaluation — a discount consistent with the risk premium for the DPU step-down in Jul/26, while offering a margin for error. Upside catalysts: Contagem appraisal in Dec/26, Guarulhos lease review in 2027, and the Selic easing cycle.
For investors who accept a variable DPU and want logistics exposure without paying benchmark premiums, TRBL11 is a viable satellite position (5–10% of the FII allocation). For those seeking stable income or looking solely at annualized dividend yield, it is better to stick with HGLG11/BTLG11, which pay less but with greater predictability.
Current recommendation: ACCUMULATE. Rating 6.9/10. Attention: the distribution of R$ 2.68/unit paid in June/2026 (the highest in history) came from the gain on the sale of a warehouse—a one-time event that has already occurred. The recurring distribution for the 2nd half of 2026 is R$ 0.43 to 0.50/unit/month , confirmed by the…
Our current read on TRBL11 is “ACCUMULATE”. Rating 6.9/10. Assess it against your risk profile and the points of attention listed above.
The main points of attention for Tellus Rio Bravo Renda Logística FII include: Volatile DPU — recurring 2H/2026 is R$ 0.43-0.50/unit (vs. R$ 2.68 paid in June); Negative appraisal of Contagem -28.27% (Dec/2025) — Shopee mitigates, pending value recomposition; CRI IPCA+7.12% — expensive leverage in a high Selic rate environment; Ambev maturity (Feira de Santana, 8.77% of revenue) in Aug/27 — no replacement contracted.
TRBL11 is suitable for: Logistics investors seeking last-mile exposure without buying HGLG11/BTLG11 at P/BV 1.0+ Those who accept variable DPU (R$ 0.45–0.85) in exchange for a fund with mapped operational catalysts Satellite logistics position (5–10% of an FII portfolio) with a 2026-2028 rent review thesis