Brazil market sentiment
The more people repeat that something is about to get worse, the more a mood takes hold. We measure that mood every day from what is published in the press, on YouTube channels and in the investor community about Brazil, the world, asset classes and Brazilian REIT segments — from very pessimistic to very optimistic.
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How we measure it
Where it comes from
News websites, large and mid-sized YouTube channels and the investor community on Reddit. We read the whole piece — the text or the video transcript — not just the headline: headlines often provoke while the content says something else. All sources are Brazilian and publish in Portuguese, so headlines and quotes stay in the original language.
How we read it
An AI model reads each piece and records, for every topic it mentions, the tone (from very pessimistic to very optimistic), the expected direction and the passage that backs up that reading. The passage is checked against the original text: an annotation whose passage cannot be found in the content is thrown out. The same video can be pessimistic about Brazil and optimistic about the dollar — each stance counts toward its own gauge.
How it becomes a gauge
- Each group of authors — press, YouTube and community — gets its own reading, and asset prices get another one. The needle on each gauge is the weighted average of the readings — the same number shown on the home page and on the fund cards — and each reading still appears on its own, as a letter on the arc. When there is a same-day price reading, the market weighs 80% and the conversation shares the other 20%: news is what people say, prices are what people do. The gap between the two stays visible in the letters, and that is exactly what matters. Each card shows the weights used.
- Recent content weighs more than older content, and each source’s usual tone is discounted (a channel that is always gloomy cannot drag the gauge down on its own).
- When there is little content, the reading carries a small sample label and leans on the level above (inherited). With nothing at all in 30 days, it shows no reading — never neutral.
- Until there are 12 months of history, the reading carries a short history label.
What prices say
News is what people say; prices are what people do. That is why every gauge also has a Market (prices) reading, calculated daily from market data only, with no artificial intelligence. Each piece compares the day with its own history (0 is the most fearful moment ever seen, 100 the most euphoric), and the index is the average of the pieces:
- Momentum — the index above or below its 6-month average.
- Strength — close to the 1-year high or low.
- Breadth — how many securities rise together.
- Calm — volatility (globally, the VIX): calm means optimism.
- Safe haven — stocks versus US Treasuries.
- Credit — the appetite for risky credit.
- Dollar and interest rates — in Brazil, a rising dollar and rising real rates mean fear.
- Discount — for Brazilian REITs (FIIs), unit prices versus book value.
Measured on past data, every time the REIT price gauge hit extreme fear, the IFIX was higher 12 months later. This describes what already happened; it does not guarantee what will happen.
Other gauges
Where a well-known third-party gauge exists, such as CNN's Fear & Greed Index (US stocks) and alternative.me's (crypto), we show its number alongside ours as a reference. It is not part of our average: the methodology is closed, it can change without notice and it measures the United States, not Brazil. When ours and theirs disagree sharply, that is a signal to take a closer look.
The scale runs from 0 to 100: