At Expert XP 2026 — Latin America's largest investing conference — a simple statement shook many attendees who had been sleeping soundly with their savings in CDI-linked products: Brazil's most popular investment does not protect wealth over the long run. In some recent years, it outright failed to keep pace with inflation.
The CDI (Certificado de Depósito Interbancário) is Brazil's overnight interbank rate, used as the reference for most fixed-income products — the local equivalent of putting money in a money-market fund. The panel speakers were Arthur Wichmann, Chief Investment Officer of XP, and Ruy Ribeiro, founding partner of Atlantiqis Consulting. Their argument: CDI is a superb short-term parking lot, but a poor long-term wealth-preservation tool.
For Brazilian retail investors who keep 100% of their savings in DI funds, daily-liquidity CDBs, or Tesouro Selic (the government's CDI-linked bond), the implication is sobering. Safety from day-to-day price volatility is not the same as protection of real purchasing power — and that is precisely where CDI falls short.
What the "default" on CDI actually means
The CDI tracks the Selic rate set by Brazil's Central Bank (Banco Central do Brasil). When Selic is high, CDI pays well. When the Central Bank cuts rates quickly, CDI yield collapses in lockstep. The trouble is that inflation (IPCA, Brazil's consumer price index) does not follow suit: prices can keep rising even as interest rates tumble.
The starkest example came during the pandemic. Brazil's Selic, which had sat at 14.25% per year in 2016, was slashed all the way to a historic low of 2% per year in 2020–2021. CDI yields followed it down. Meanwhile, inflation in 2021 surged to 10.06%. Anyone sitting in CDI products earned around 4.4% that year — losing nearly 5% in real terms. Their money bought less at the end of the year than at the beginning.
That is the "calote" (default) the speakers described: the investor trusted the CDI to protect their savings, but the product silently eroded their purchasing power the moment the monetary policy cycle turned.
The pattern is clear: the CDI's real return fluctuates enormously depending on the interest-rate cycle. It was outstanding when rates were near record highs in 2016 and wealth-destroying when they hit record lows in 2021. The key insight: how well CDI protects you depends entirely on what the Central Bank decides to do — and that is outside any investor's control.
CDI only locks in protection for ~45 days at a time
Here is the mechanical detail most investors overlook. The CDI is an overnight rate, repriced every business day and effectively reset every time Brazil's monetary policy committee (Copom) meets — roughly every 45 days.
In practice: the attractive rate you see on your daily-liquidity CDB today is only guaranteed until the next Copom meeting. If the Central Bank cuts, your yield drops immediately with no recourse. There is no locking in. You are exposed to continuous repricing.
Contrast that with a NTN-B (sold on the retail platform as Tesouro IPCA+, Brazil's inflation-linked government bond): it locks in a fixed real yield at purchase. Buy a IPCA+6% NTN-B today and you will earn IPCA plus 6% per year until maturity, regardless of what happens to Selic along the way. The Central Bank can cut rates to zero and your contracted real return survives intact.
Why NTN-B (Tesouro IPCA+) is the specialists' recommendation
The NTN-B is a Brazilian federal government bond that pays IPCA (inflation) plus a fixed spread contracted at purchase. The IPCA component is the official Brazilian inflation index; the spread is the real return. Together, they guarantee that your investment grows faster than inflation for the full term.
For long-term goals — retirement, generational wealth, any horizon of 10 or more years — this structure matters enormously. You do not have to time interest-rate cycles or predict the next Copom decision. The real return is embedded in the contract.
Wichmann's and Ribeiro's argument boils down to this: instead of letting purchasing power depend on 45-day rate renewals, anchor a real return for years. Stop gambling on monetary policy staying favorable; contract it away.
Real assets: FIIs and equities
The panel also endorsed real assets — and that is where Brazilian REITs (locally called FIIs, Fundos de Investimento Imobiliário) fit into the picture. There are two broad types, and both serve as long-term inflation hedges:
Paper FIIs (credit funds): these hold CRIs (Brazilian real-estate receivables certificates) indexed to IPCA plus a spread. The mechanics mirror the NTN-B: dividends rise with inflation because the underlying assets are inflation-linked. When IPCA goes up, so do the monthly distributions.
Brick FIIs (physical real estate): logistics warehouses, shopping malls, corporate offices. Lease contracts are typically reset by inflation indices (IPCA or IGP-M), and the underlying property values tend to track the broader economy over time. This is inflation protection through a tangible asset rather than a financial contract.
In our current allocation model, FIIs represent 10% (Neutral sentiment). Neutral does not mean we dislike them — it means we see them as a structural holding for inflation protection and income, without the asymmetric upside that would justify overweighting in the current environment.
Our current allocation holds 15% in Cash (Optimistic) — but that position serves short-term liquidity and the flexibility to seize opportunities, not long-term purchasing-power preservation. For long horizons, IPCA+ bonds and real assets are the right tools.
The practical takeaway
The lesson from Expert XP 2026 is not to abandon CDI entirely. It is to use every instrument for its proper purpose. CDI (via Tesouro Selic, daily-liquidity CDBs, or DI funds) is unbeatable for cash management: stable, liquid, zero price risk. The mistake is treating that short-term role as long-term protection.
| Horizon | Goal | Best instrument | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term (up to 1 year) | Emergency fund, liquidity | CDI (Tesouro Selic / daily CDB) | No price volatility, redeemable daily, adequate yield while rates are high |
| Medium term (2–5 years) | Targeted goals, income | Short IPCA+ bonds and paper FIIs (IPCA-linked CRIs) | Contracts a real return; distributions rise with inflation |
| Long term (5+ years) | Retirement, legacy | Long NTN-B (IPCA+), brick FIIs, real-economy equities | Locks in real return for years; real assets track economic growth |
A well-constructed portfolio uses all three layers. CDI handles the short end. NTN-B anchors long-term real returns. Real assets (FIIs, equities) add growth and income tied to the economy. The problem described at Expert XP arises when investors pour everything into CDI and label it "conservative" — because over a decade, it is actually the allocation most exposed to losing against inflation.
CDI is a short-term tool, not a wealth protector. If you hold money you will not need for 5+ years, consider anchoring part of it in IPCA+ bonds or real assets. The XP CIO's argument is technically sound — and our current allocation already reflects that logic.
Sources
