What Does the BTG Pactual Study Say About the 6-by-1 Schedule?
Reducing the weekly work schedule could consume up to double digits of projected 2027 net income for publicly traded agribusiness and food processing companies, according to a report titled The Price of a Shorter Week, released by BTG Pactual on October 16.
In the view of the bank's analysts, even when the increase in payroll expenses appears modest compared to total gross revenue, the cascading effect on the bottom line is disproportionate. Narrow-margin, labor-intensive operational sectors face a direct squeeze on earnings even before they can pass along any price increases.
The study analyzes a proposal to eliminate the 6-by-1 model in Brazil, replacing the schedule with two paid weekly rest days and gradually cutting the maximum allowed workweek from 44 to 40 hours without reducing employees' nominal wages.
Why Are Agribusiness and Meatpackers Most Vulnerable?
The impossibility of interrupting continuous industrial lines without hiring new work shifts is the main channel of pressure on agricultural costs, according to the assumptions adopted by the investment bank.
To model the impact on balance sheets, BTG Pactual assumes that the eliminated work hours will need to be fully replaced to maintain current levels of slaughter, harvesting, and processing. This assumption results in a direct average increase of 10% in the unit cost per hour worked across the operational workforce.
The situation is even more complex for sugar and ethanol mills. In this segment, the bank points to an even more severe assumption: paying additional hours is not enough, as the operation requires reorganizing complete shifts and physically expanding teams in the fields and boiler rooms during the harvest season.
Thousands of workers in deboning and daily slaughter with shifts that cannot stop.
The harvest requires a complete team restructuring to cover 24-hour shifts.
Prices for protein and agricultural commodities depend on the global market, not local costs.
Which B3 Stocks Are Most Exposed According to the Bank?
Marfrig (MRFG3) and JBS (JBSS32), along with companies in the sugar-energy sector, rank among the most exposed to potential regulatory labor changes, according to the BTG Pactual survey.
The report emphasizes that the risk does not spread evenly across the Brazilian stock exchange. Three fundamental variables determine the severity of the effect on each company analyzed:
1. Headcount required to keep operations running: meatpackers maintain large factory-floor payrolls with manual cutting and packaging activities that do not permit immediate automation.
2. Current profitability and operating margin: companies already operating with low net margins in the 2% to 4% range see any increase in fixed expenses consume a massive share of final pre-tax income.
3. Ability to pass costs on to prices: companies that export beef, poultry, or ethanol operate as dollar price-takers in the international market, leaving them unable to pass Brazilian labor costs on to foreign buyers.
What Scenarios Did BTG Outline for Implementing the Measure?
The bank evaluated two distinct scenarios for absorbing the new schedule rules: one featuring a full transition without mitigation and another in which a portion of the costs can be passed along or adjusted.
Under the baseline scenario of full implementation, all reduced hours are replaced with additional hiring or equivalent costs. In this environment, the cut in projected 2027 net income reaches up to 15% for the most labor-intensive companies.
In BTG's alternative scenario, companies manage to cushion part of the shock by transferring half of the additional expenses to final prices or offsetting the difference through internal efficiency and productivity gains.
Total replacement of cut hours, a 10% rise in hourly costs, and no pass-through to selling prices.
Companies manage to transfer about half of the additional costs or raise productivity.
If you hold shares in meatpackers like MRFG3 or JBSS32, the study's core message is that Brazil's payroll becomes a direct risk factor for profit and dividend projections starting in 2027. Lower net income directly compresses the calculation base for distributions paid to shareholders.
What Should Investors Monitor Going Forward?
The legislative process and transition timeline are the priority gauges for anyone tracking assets exposed to agribusiness and the food industry on the exchange.
Final text of the constitutional amendment or bill — Monitor whether there will be differentiated transition rules for the agricultural sector and continuous rotating shifts.
Implementation timeline — Assess the speed of the workweek reduction: gradual cuts (e.g., one hour per year) provide workable lead time for industrial automation plans.
Profit revisions among research desks — Track whether market consensus analysts begin factoring a cut of up to 15% into official 2027 valuation models.
Note: The calculations presented correspond to theoretical projections by BTG Pactual based on drafts and discussions surrounding the end of the 6-by-1 schedule. The proposal still depends on processing in the National Congress, where the text may undergo significant changes regarding deadlines, sector exceptions, or rules for essential activities.
Rico aos Poucos Verdict
The BTG Pactual study fulfills the essential role of quantifying what individual retail investors typically ignore: a change that seems minor in operating expenses has the power to drain 15% of profits in low-margin sectors. For those holding positions in the sector, the point is not to rush out and sell in a panic, but rather to calibrate dividend expectations for 2027 and demand greater efficiency from companies in managing their production lines.
