A sectoral study released by XP Investimentos indicates that Eztec (EZTC3) is launching new projects at a pace exceeding the market's net sales absorption capacity, accumulating R$ 1.1 billion in inventory of completed and under-construction units in the third quarter of 2026.
What EZTC3's Investor Relations Team Reveals About the Inventory Buildup
According to an analysis by XP's research team on developers' operational data, the EZTC3 stock leads a group of middle- and upper-income developers—alongside TRIS3 stock and MDNE3 stock—experiencing a mismatch between the volume of new projects brought to market and the sales-over-supply velocity (VSO). This is not a construction execution crisis, but rather a bottleneck in converting properties into net cash at the planned pace.
In the first nine months of 2026, Eztec recorded R$ 2.4 billion in launched potential sales value (VGV), surpassing the company's historical mark. Conversely, net sales totaled R$ 1.8 billion over the same period. Although operations reached a record in contracted gross volume, the R$ 600 million surplus of launched but unsold properties expanded total inventory in finished units or units under construction to R$ 1.1 billion, increasing maintenance costs and working capital tied up in inventory.
Why Did the Sales Pace Stall While Launches Rose?
As EZTC3 IR filings to investors demonstrate, the company's strategy involved resuming large-scale launches in the metropolitan region of São Paulo following periods of contraction between 2022 and 2024. As we observed in our analysis when Eztec's launches grew 53% in 3Q26, upper-middle-class buyer demand faced high bank interest rates on real estate financing, reducing appetite during the off-plan launch phases.
Another vector highlighted in the XP study is price repricing via Present Value Adjustment (AVP). To ensure the attractiveness of installment sales in recent vintages, Eztec offered direct installment terms whose accounting impact consumed 11.0 percentage points of the 3Q26 gross margin, dropping it from 44.7% to 33.7%. This deceleration in accounting margins reduced net income for the quarter to R$ 85.4 million, compared to R$ 183.5 million in the same period a year earlier.
| Developer | Launched VGV 3Q26 | Net Sales 3Q26 | Operational Highlight (XP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eztec (EZTC3) | R$ 726.5 Million | R$ 480.2 Million | Accumulated finished inventory of R$ 1.1 billion and margin decline due to AVP |
| Trisul (TRIS3) | R$ 510.0 Million | R$ 466.7 Million | Sales pressure in middle-income products in the São Paulo capital |
| Moura Dubeux (MDNE3) | R$ 680.0 Million | R$ 520.0 Million | Regional expansion in the Northeast with targeted VSO deceleration |
Does Clean Cash Protect the Thesis, or Will Inventory Become a Nightmare?
Despite the research firm's warning regarding inventory accumulation, Eztec's financial structure displays atypical insulation for the civil construction sector. Unlike competitors that are highly leveraged during monetary tightening cycles, the company closed the quarter with negative net debt (-0.0033x EBITDA) and gross leverage of just 33.7% of equity, supported by 21 active construction sites and R$ 789 million in revenue to be recognized at a contracted margin of 38.2%.
In addition, the company's recurring income arm secured significant cash relief with the billion-real lease of Esther Towers to Itaú, a ten-year contract guaranteeing R$ 1.17 billion in revenue flow. This means that while residential real estate inventory puts pressure on working capital, Eztec faces no insolvency risk or need for forced liquidation at extreme discounts.
In the secondary market, however, investors have severely penalized the shares. Trading around R$ 9.29 on the B3, the EZTC3 stock has dropped 45.6% in November and 32.3% for the year. This sell-off pushed the price-to-book (P/BV) multiple down to 0.49x—meaning the market valued the company at a 51% discount to its accounting book value.
What Has Changed in Valuation and What Must Investors Monitor?
For those looking to determine whether the current share price reflects an opportunity or a value trap, the discrepancy between multiples and operational performance is the central point. Unlike speculative episodes such as the price appreciation without new announcements in JHSF3, the discount at Eztec is directly tied to the time management will take to clear the R$ 1.1 billion inventory without sacrificing the average price per square meter.
If you hold EZTC3 stock in your portfolio, the recent dividend of R$ 0.094 per share approved in 2Q26 demonstrates continued payout distributions (a 10.66% 12-month dividend yield), but margin cuts limit extraordinary dividends in the short term. The 0.49x P/BV discount offers balance-sheet safety, but an upside catalyst depends on clearing the accumulated inventory.
In their coverage reports, EZTC3 IR analysts emphasize three primary catalysts that will set the tone for the coming quarters:
Sales velocity (VSO) of completed inventory — Monitor whether Eztec can sell completed units above R$ 150 million per quarter without expanding aggressive discount campaigns.
Stabilization of accounting gross margin — Observe whether the AVP effect on installment sales has reached a floor in the 33% to 35% range or will continue to compress the balance sheet in 4Q26.
Evolution of the Selic rate and real estate credit — Evaluate the upper-middle-class buyer's ability to secure bank financing as physical deliveries progress.
Site Verdict
XP's warning regarding Eztec's R$ 1.1 billion inventory highlights a real near-term operational risk: the company is launching projects faster than the upper-income market can absorb them. Nevertheless, with net cash, zero debt, and a P/BV of 0.49x, the EZTC3 investment thesis features robust balance-sheet protection. The firm's recommendation is to hold off and observe, waiting for clear signs of a VSO recovery before expanding positions in the developer.