InfoMoney published a technical analysis outlining the support and resistance levels for the Ibovespa and the dollar ahead of Tuesday's market reopening (11/03), following an 18% plunge in stocks and a sharp rally in the dollar. For investors, the key is understanding what each level signals before an opening bell knee-jerk reaction drives a hasty decision.
What Levels Must the Ibovespa and Dollar Defend Upon Reopening?
The analysis identifies price bands where price movements typically find a floor or a ceiling—specifically, supports and resistances—on Ibovespa and dollar charts. The summary we received does not disclose the exact values of these levels, so we will not publish any figures that were not officially released. Investors seeking the precise price points should consult InfoMoney's original analysis.
What we can safely do is explain how this type of map works and what it can and cannot tell us. This logic applies to any level marked by an analyst, regardless of the specific figures.
What Are Support and Resistance, and Why Do They Matter More After Such a Sharp Drop?
Support is a price band where buyers have historically stepped in to halt a sell-off. Resistance is the opposite: a band where sellers tend to emerge and cap a rally. Technical analysts monitor these points because a large share of the market watches the exact same levels, frequently triggering price reactions there.
Following a decline like the 18% drop, these levels carry more weight for two reasons. First, prices have moved significantly in a short period, leaving previous reference points far behind and narrowing the available guides. Second, as the market reopens on Tuesday, trading may kick off far from the last negotiated price, and opening orders typically test these exact bands.
The read is always conditional: if the index breaks below support, the downward path may open up; if it holds and recovers part of the loss, the resistance overhead becomes the next test. The level does not predict outcomes; it simply organizes what to watch.
Why Are Stocks and the Dollar Analyzed Together?
During periods of stress, the two typically move in opposite directions: when investors flee risk, they sell equities and buy the dollar, and when fear recedes, the trend reverses. That is why InfoMoney's analysis examines both assets in the same report. The dollar page compiles the day's exchange rate and fair value, which is useful for seeing where the currency stands relative to that benchmark.
This backdrop was already heavy. Morgan Stanley had projected the dollar at R$ 5.60 and a 30% drop in Brazilian stocks following Lula's reelection, as we reported in our coverage of the bank's projection. Technical analysis neither confirms nor refutes this outlook; it focuses on short-term pricing and reactions rather than multi-month scenarios.
Another sign of stress was EWZ, an exchange-traded fund tracking Brazilian stocks in New York, which suffered the worst drop in its history, the subject of our article on what happened to EWZ. Because the ETF trades abroad while the B3 is closed, it serves as one of the key references used to gauge the opening tone in Brazil.
How to Read Broken Support or Resistance Levels?
The rule of thumb is to invert the signal between the two assets. For equities, breaking below support is a negative signal; for the dollar, the negative signal is breaking above resistance.
| What Happens | Ibovespa | Dollar |
|---|---|---|
| Holds the lower level (support) | Signal that the sell-off may pause | Signal that the currency may give back part of its gains |
| Breaks the lower level | Opens room for further declines | Relief in the foreign exchange market |
| Breaks the upper level (resistance) | Recovery gains momentum | Increased currency pressure |
| Trades between both levels | Directionless day; waiting is advised | Directionless day; waiting is advised |
The table outlines the general framework. The prices making up each row are those marked on the charts by InfoMoney's analyst.
- The level shows where the market tends to react and helps define a point to review positions, rather than making snap decisions in the heat of the opening bell.
- The level does not guarantee a reversal: supports fail and resistances are broken, particularly on days with heavy news flow.
- A single candlestick or the opening minutes of trade do not confirm a trend. The market open is typically the most volatile period.
What Does This Mean for Investors?
Investors holding Brazilian equities do not need to make decisions in the opening minutes: the useful question is whether your original thesis for holding the asset has changed, not where the index opened. Those holding dollars or dollar-denominated assets experience the flip side of the move, as a currency pullback reduces recent gains. Meanwhile, investors sitting on the sidelines with cash can use the levels as a guide to wait for confirmation rather than chasing a price that has already moved significantly.
To track the index throughout the day, the Ibovespa page shows the current point tally and lets you check whether it is trading above or below the levels indicated in the analysis.
Can We Tell If the Sell-Off Is Over?
No. Technical analysis describes the probabilities of a reaction based on past prices, and the source itself treats the levels as guidance for the initial moves rather than a prediction. An 18% drop may see brief relief at the open and resume falling afterward, or vice versa. What matters most in upcoming sessions is how the market handles these price points and reacts to the day's headlines.
Check where the Ibovespa opens relative to support — if it holds above the level indicated by the analysis, the sell-off has paused; if it breaks below, the risk of a continued decline increases.
Monitor the dollar against resistance — an upward breakout at the level marked by InfoMoney would amplify pressure on the stock market.
Wait for confirmation, not the first move — compare the day's closing price with the key levels, rather than just the opening print.
InfoMoney's technical analysis serves as a yardstick for the market's return on Tuesday, offering investors the composure to wait for reactions at the right levels. The exact figures are in the original report; portfolio decisions remain yours, and if your investment thesis has not changed, the opening session alone rarely justifies a reallocation.