Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated on Monday that a seven-step proposal to restore security in the Strait of Hormuz could be implemented "in the coming days"—contingent on the end of the U.S. naval blockade and the fulfillment of Iranian demands. In the same session the statement hit the market, Brent crude tumbled 6.05% to $106.57 a barrel.
What Did Iran Propose for the Strait of Hormuz?
The seven-step proposal was presented through intermediaries during the Iranian delegation's visit to New York. The condition for reopening: an end to the U.S. naval blockade and the fulfillment of Iranian demands. Baghaei confirmed at a press conference on Monday that the plan remains valid and can be implemented "in the coming days."
The spokesperson added that the Iranians have already received and responded to U.S. positions via intermediaries, and that "various considerations were exchanged between the parties"—indicating an active diplomatic channel, but no public convergence yet. The proposal is on the table; the agreement is not finalized.
BRENT −6.05% in the sessionFeb 11, 2026 — $106.57/barrel
Why Did Brent Drop Almost $5 in a Single Day?
The Strait of Hormuz is the bottleneck through which a significant share of globally traded oil flows. As the conflict kept the strait closed or under threat of closure, crude accumulated a growing risk premium: in October, following new attacks in the Red Sea, Brent crossed $111. Baghaei's statement that reopening could happen "in the coming days" prompted traders to trim long positions, dissolving part of that premium in a single session.
Today's drop prices in the possibility of an agreement—not its confirmation. The market learned this pattern from the episodes in September and June of this year: sharp drops on the announcement of negotiations, followed by a recovery when the stalemate persisted. In September, a similar diplomatic negotiation pulled down the price of crude, which later recovered when the blockade continued. Today's Brent at $106.57 already discounts part of the probability of progress, but not certainty.
"We have announced that if Iran's demands are met, it is possible for security to be restored in the Strait of Hormuz and for the negotiation process to begin shortly."Esmail Baghaei, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Feb 11, 2026
The Decision Rests in Washington
Baghaei was unequivocal in attributing the next steps to the U.S. side: "The decision is now in the hands of the United States." According to the spokesperson, the strait can only be opened if three conditions are met together: the end of the naval blockade, compliance with Iranian demands, and the implementation of Tehran's legitimate requirements—and only after these conditions are satisfied would it be possible to discuss the continuation of the diplomatic process.
Washington's stance, as of this writing, has not yielded to this framework. Trump had publicly declared that higher gasoline prices were "a small price to pay" in exchange for global security—a signal that the U.S. administration had been politically absorbing the cost of the energy crisis without altering its position on the blockade. For the market, what matters now is whether that position holds or doubles down. Until Washington speaks out, today's drop is a market bet, not confirmation of a deal.
If the U.S. ends the blockade and the seven-step plan is implemented, the geopolitical risk premium dissolves and crude could test support levels below $100. Gasoline and diesel become cheaper in Brazil; the IPCA inflation index eases, and the Central Bank gains room to cut the Selic rate ahead of schedule.
If Washington does not yield to Iranian conditions, the strait remains closed. Today's drop becomes a technical correction, and crude resumes its path toward $111 or higher. Fuel and freight costs pressure the IPCA, and a potential Selic rate-hike cycle returns to the radar.
What This Means for Brazilian Investors
The most direct channel is PETR4 (Petrobras preferred shares). Petrobras's earnings—and consequently its dividends—are sensitive to international crude prices. With Brent falling, future revenue projected by analysts declines, which tends to weigh on the stock price in the short term. For long-term PETR4 holders, a single session's movement is noise; what defines the investment is the trajectory of oil over the coming weeks, and that trajectory depends on Washington's response.
For Brazilian real estate funds (FIIs), the effect is indirect, but potentially more persistent. Sustained cheaper oil brings down energy and freight inflation, eases the IPCA, and gives the Central Bank room to cut the Selic rate earlier. Lower rates favor real estate funds over fixed income—unit prices tend to rise when the Selic falls. But this transmission mechanism takes months to reach portfolios and depends on the deal materializing. To gauge risk, it is worth looking back at the June 2026 episode, when a similar 30-day reopening proposal pushed crude down before a recovery—and comparing the tone of that moment's conditions with today's before repositioning.
If you hold PETR4, prepare for volatility in upcoming sessions as the market digests whether the agreement moves forward. If you hold FIIs, the news points to the right long-term scenario—earlier Selic rate cuts—but does not change your position today. Do not reallocate your portfolio based on a diplomatic statement without confirmation from Washington; wait for the triggers below before acting.
Brent prices over the next 48 hours — if crude holds below $108, the market is buying the scenario of progress. If it returns to $110 or higher, today's optimism did not hold.
Formal statement from Washington — Baghaei placed the decision on the U.S. Any statement from the White House or State Department regarding the naval blockade is the most important second-order trigger to watch.
Timeline of the Iranian proposal — "in the coming days" is a short window. If a week passes without a U.S. response and without a new Iranian statement, the proposal loses urgency, and the market begins repricing the stalemate.