![Oil Plunges Abroad on U.S.-Iran Talks—What's Driving the Commodity's Drop? [PETR4]](/en/artigos/imagens/oil-plunges-abroad-iran-talkswhat-driving-commodity-drop-petr4.webp)
Why Did Oil Prices Fall Internationally?
Crude oil prices pulled back sharply in international markets after Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian officials had begun diplomatic discussions in New York on a phased plan to end the U.S. naval blockade of Tehran and reopen maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. The start of these talks immediately eased the geopolitical risk aversion that had kept prices elevated in recent sessions.
Following reports of the talks, Brent crude futures fell 7.33% internationally, dropping to $98.79. This deceleration erased a large portion of the gains accumulated in previous sessions, when threats of a lasting disruption to global fuel transport had left the market under severe operational stress.
The Strait of Hormuz is considered one of the most critical energy trade chokepoints in the world, carrying a significant share of all oil consumed globally. Any sign of political detente in the region tends to strip the risk premium out of futures contracts that built up during episodes of military hostility.
What Had Been Driving the Commodity's Rally in Previous Sessions?
Before initial reports emerged about the New York negotiation channel, the market operated under heavy buying pressure amid a lack of clarity in relations between Washington and Tehran. On Thursday, September 24, oil closed significantly higher amid a diplomatic stalemate and aggressive rhetoric from both government leaders.
On London's Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent crude futures for November delivery ended Thursday up 4.34%, hitting $107 per barrel. Meanwhile, Brent futures for December delivery rose 3.41% on the same day, gaining $3.52 to close at $106.60 per barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), WTI crude futures for October rose 2.65%, with a financial gain of $2.45.
In addition to uncertainty over free passage in Hormuz, operational and military incidents inflamed institutional investors. According to reports from AFP based on maritime tracking tools, three tankers carrying roughly 6 million barrels of Iranian oil—a cargo valued at about $600 million—were seized by the U.S. government and were en route across the Atlantic Ocean to the United States. Two of the seized tankers were sailing along the Brazilian coast when monitored. Concurrently, the Saudi Arabian government reported on the same day that it had intercepted six missiles within its territory, temporarily raising perceived risks for regional Middle Eastern infrastructure.
| Contract / Reference | Session Movement | Recorded Change | Reported Close |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude (November) | Driven by impasse | +4.34% | $107 |
| Brent Crude (December) | Gained $3.52 | +3.41% | $106.60 |
| WTI Crude (November) | Gained $2.45 | +2.65% | Higher on Nymex |
| Brent Crude (Current Round) | Declined after peace talks | -7.33% | $98.79 |
Does the Central Bank See Oil Contaminating Inflation?
Despite recent volatility in international energy prices, Brazil's central bank has not yet identified any harmful transmission of the fuel shock to the broader domestic economy. In its Monetary Policy Report for the second quarter of 2026, released on Thursday, September 24, the Central Bank stated that there is no evidence that the recent rise in oil prices will generate relevant inflationary spillovers through second-order effects.
The Central Bank explained that second-order effects differ from primary impacts because they directly affect corporate pricing structures and wage-setting mechanisms. In corporate pricing, this contagion occurs when companies adjust their products and services by more than the direct and indirect cost increases generated by oil, anticipating future pressures before those costs fully materialize. In the BC's view, the current Brazilian economic environment has not left room for companies to adopt this preventive, preemptive passthrough to consumers.
Another relevant second-order channel is the pressure exerted by above-average wage adjustments in an attempt to recover purchasing power lost to accumulated inflation, which also has not seen widespread traction. In the monetary authority's reference scenario, 12-month accumulated IPCA inflation is projected at 4.4% by the end of the third quarter of 2026, ending the year at 5.2%. Over the longer horizon of this study, the BC projects 12-month IPCA inflation at 3.1% in the first quarter of 2029, the final point in the calculated series.
Regarding economic activity, the Central Bank revised down its 2026 GDP growth projection to 1.8%, while official estimates for 2027 point to a 1.4% expansion. By comparison, the Ministry of Finance released slightly more optimistic forecasts the same week, projecting 2.0% growth for 2026 GDP and 2.3% for the following year.
Central Bank View: The fuel shock creates a primary impact on price indices, but companies are unable to broadly pass on these costs. Without preemptive passthrough or unbridled wage indexation, second-order effects remain contained.
What Changes in Practice for Ibovespa Companies?
Oil's sudden pivot from a sharp rally to a 7.33% daily drop redistributes operational pressures across the various sectors making up the Brazilian stock exchange's benchmark index. The impact on stocks varies according to each sector's position in the supply and fuel value chain.
For oil producers and crude exporters, the easing of prices reduces the revenue premium that had been priced in for the very near term. When crude pulls back from levels above $107 and returns to marks like $98.79, the cash flow generated by selling the commodity undergoes a proportional adjustment, limiting the expansion of immediate profit margins for extraction companies.
On the other hand, the drop in energy commodity prices provides direct relief to the cost structures of companies heavily dependent on transportation inputs, ground logistics, and fuels in general. Sectors such as fleet operators, distribution networks, airlines, and companies with dispersed logistics chains gain operational predictability when global energy prices ease. Lower operating expenses on freight and derivatives improve the profitability outlook for these companies, which had been operating with compressed margins due to high fuel costs.
Beyond the microeconomic effect on companies, the deceleration of oil relieves pressure on Brazil's yield curve. A lower risk of contagion for the IPCA reinforces the Central Bank's view that reference inflation can end 2026 at 5.2% without requiring harsher monetary tightening, benefiting companies focused on domestic consumption and the domestic economy.
What Should Investors Monitor From Now On?
Although the 7.33% pullback brings relief to markets, investors should not treat diplomatic negotiation news as a definitive, concluded solution. International price trends will remain tied to the practical outcomes of the points under discussion between Washington and Tehran.
- Formalization of agreements in New York: The main short-term catalyst is verifying whether the talks reported by Reuters will advance into practical terms for formally clearing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz or if diplomatic missteps will trigger a new wave of volatility.
- Regional geopolitical incidents: The interception of six missiles by Saudi Arabia and the handling of the three seized tankers carrying 6 million barrels indicate that the security environment along the supply route still involves real friction between the parties.
- Behavior of futures contracts: It is crucial to watch whether Brent will consolidate below the stress levels seen in Thursday's session, when the November contract reached $107 and December closed at $106.60 per barrel.
- Current inflation dynamics: It is worth monitoring whether external relief will quickly reach refinery prices in Brazil, corroborating the Central Bank's projections of IPCA convergence to 4.4% in the third quarter and 5.2% by the end of 2026.
