RPM: chance of bursting the ceiling of the goal rises to 79%

It is worth starting with the drawing of the goal, because it changes the reading. From 2025 the goal is to 2025 Continuous Continuous: what matters is the IPCA accumulated in 12 months, measured month by month, and no longer the December close. The center is 3% with tolerance of ±1.5 point, that is, the valid range goes from 1.5% (floor) to 4.5% (ceiling). If the index is outside this range by index by range. Six consecutive months., formal non-compliance is configured — with a public letter from the president of BC to the Minister of Finance explaining the causes and the convergence deadline.

And here is the point that turns the number into a near certainty: the IPCA accumulated in 12 months was already in 12 months. 4.72% in May/2026X% in May/2026X — above the ceiling. It is not a question of predicting a future rupture; it has already begun. The question ceased to be "are we going to pierce the ceiling?" and went on to be "for how many months, and how much above?". The market itself is less optimistic than the BC: the Focus Bulletin designs 5,33% for the IPCA of 2026, up by 15 the week in a row — up to the official projection of 5.2%. When the market consensus exceeds the projection of the BC, it is often a sign that the ceiling of the official projection still has room to rise.

Within the number, BC estimates free prices in 5,3% and administered in 4,7% in 2026. It is not inflation concentrated on a seasonal item that dissolves on its own — it is disseminated. And the horizon is long: by reading the RPM, inflation should only return to the center of the goal. from the 4QQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ. For the investor, this means planning the portfolio to live with salty inflation for another two to three years, not for a one-off scare.

IPCA+ Treasury: the great direct beneficiary

Treasury IPCA+ pays inflation IPCA+ pays inflation More and more. a real interest contracted. With the IPCA+ 2035 offering real interest in the home of ~8% per year per year and the projection of inflation in 5.2%, the expected nominal return is close to 5.2% 13% to 13.5% per year per year — contract locked and free from inflationary corrosion affecting nominal assets. Historically, real interest of 8% is high: for much of the last decade the long IPCA+ paid between real 4.5% and 6%. To lock 8% reals for a decade is, in historical terms, a rare opportunity — the price to pay is the mark-up to market along the way (the stock oscillates if interest rises higher), which only matters to those who need to sell before maturity.

Paper FIIs (CRI): nominal gain, but with price reservation.

The paper FIIs are the ones that most benefit from form. Direct Directions: Most CRI portfolios are indexed to IPCA (IPCA + spread) or CDI. Higher inflation means higher nominal yield per share, and CRI funds tend to distribute more reals. The exception is entry price: after months of stretched inflation and high interest rates, several quality paper FIIs already trade with P/VP high or close to the pair, which limits capital gain — the investor takes the high yield, but you should not expect too much unit upside over that. Fine care stays with CRIX funds. The high yield yields.: inflation stretched by years pressures the cash of more leveraged debtors, and the credit risk (failure) can eat part of the extra income. Prefer pulverized wallets with solid collateral.

Paper FIIs vs. Paper FIIs FIIs Brick FIIs

The classical division becomes clear in this scenario. O O O The The The The receives the IPCA by contract, almost in real time. O O O Tijolo tijolo tijolo tijolo tijolo tijolo tijolo tijolo tijolo has a more ambiguous relationship with inflation:

In practice: the tijololo. Logistics with atypical long contracts indexed to IPCA is the one that best crosses this environment, because it passes inflation to the tenant almost like a paper title. Already FIIs brick works underway or expensive debt suffer on both sides — construction cost rising with inflation and high discount rate knocking down the present value of real estate. The positive balance is that renters with more nominal income can pay adjusted rents; the repayment exists, but arrives with lag (annual, on the anniversary of the contract), while the paper adjusts for the month.

Post-fixed (CDI/Selic): positive real interest, but attention to duration.

With the Selic in. 14,25% and the inflation projected at 5.2%, the post-fixed delivery gross real interest at home of ~9% per year per year — spectacular in historical terms and, today, the best place for the reserve and for the cashier who needs liquidity. The alert is of alarm. Cycling: the COPOM already cut 0.25pp in June, the third consecutive cut, and the post-fixed follows Selic down. Who is in CDI today harvests full rate, but the trend is of gradual decline of remuneration over the next quarters. That’s why be careful with it. Duration Duration: lengthening too much in prefix now, thinking that it "locks" the 14%, is betting against the cut-off cycle itself — the long prefix only pays off if the interest drops more slowly than the stock price already embodies.

Box allocated: keep, but never stop.

The house allocation rule keeps a relevant share in cash, and the high inflation scenario doesn't change that — it changes. as as and as as and as as and as as and as as The box is positioned. "Opportunity" box remains valuable: in an environment of high interest and still compressed asset prices, having dry powder to buy FIIs discounted or roll to IPCA+ when the real interest opens is competitive advantage. What cannot happen is that the box stays. nominal and parado nominal and parado (current account, savings, product paying less than the CDI). With inflation stretched, unproductive money is the asset that loses the most in a guaranteed way. The cashier must live in post-fixed daily liquidity (Treasury Selic, CDB/fund DI 100%+ CDI), where he or she returns close to Selic and preserves purchasing power while waiting for the next opportunity.

Fonts of all sources

• InfoMoney — BC: chance of bursting the ceiling of the inflation target in 2026 is of 79%
• Banco Central do Brasil — Monetary Policy Report (RPM), 2X Monetary Policy Report of 2026.
• Central Bank of Brazil — Bulletin Focus (market projections).

About the author The author

Article author Article author Edin Bauer

Investor and founder of Rich to the Few.

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