Selic in 2026: BTG designs 13% and Itaú designs 14% — what each scenario means for FIIs%.

In the same stage, two of the most respected houses in the Brazilian market have written different numbers for the same indicator. Event Event Event Event the event the the event the the event event the the event event the the the event event the the event event the the the event event event the the the event event the the the event event event the the the event event event the the the event event event event the the the event event event the the the event event event the the the event event event event the the the event event event the the event event event the the the event event event the the event event event event event the the event event event the event event event event the the event event event event event event the the the the the event event event event event the event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event the the the the event event event event event event event event event event event event event the event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event the event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event Event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event event "Where to Invest in 2o 2026 Half-Year", the BTG, through the voice of chief economist Mansueto Almeida, designed the Selic ending the year in in 13%. The Itaú Asset, through the voice of fund manager Bruno Serra, designed the project. 14%. A percentage point difference that, at first glance, looks like technical detail of a market room.

It's not. It's not. For those who invest in Real Estate Funds, this divergence is the most important thermometer of the moment: it defines the real estate fund. Speed of the cutting cycle speed of the cutting cycle — and the speed of the cuts is what separates a piece of brick that recovers 10% from one that stands still another year. Market estimates place the sensitivity of brick backgrounds between. 8% and 12% variation in P/VPX% for each percentage point shift in the DI (the rate closely following Selic).). What Mansueto and Serra discuss is not economists: it is the price of their unit in December.

Where we came from: the peak of 14.75% and the first cut

To understand the fight of numbers, you have to remember the way. A Selic has arrived at 14,75% at the peak of the high cycle — one of the most restrictive levels in the last two decades. Em Em 18 June 2026X June 18, the Copom made the first movement of flexibilization, cutting for. 14,25%. It was a timid cut, of 0.25 pp, signaling a slow and cautious cycle.

The debate now is no more. "if" The Selic will fall — the cut has already begun. It's been a while. "How far" to where and and y “At what pace”. The Copom goes far, delivering consecutive cuts up to a much less restrictive level? Or brake early, preserving a high real interest rate so as not to risk inflation? BTG and Itaú answered this question in opposite ways.

What BTG defends: Selic a 13% Selic a 13%

Mansueto Almeida, who was once Secretary of the National Treasury and knows the fiscal machine up close, supports the most optimistic thesis for the cuts. Its projection of yours 13% at the end of 2026 means a drop of 2026 ZQXX0ZZZ0ZZQQQQQQQQQ x zqx0ZZ0ZZ0ZZ0ZZ0ZZQQQQQQQQX PPppppppqq zqx00ZQ0ZZZQQQQQQQQQqqqq zq zqx zqx0Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq. ppppppppppp p p p p p p p p p p p p p p pqqqqqqqqqqq. from the current level — i.e., something close to 4 to 5 additional cuts of 0.25 pp. The front. by front.

The premise is twofold: first, a Disinflation will move forward. enough to make room for the Copom to cut with more conviction; secondly, the Copom The fiscal side is sure to be safe. — no deterioration of the public accounts forcing the Central Bank to maintain high interest rates as a security mattress. If this reading is correct, the restrictive field recedes faster than the market priced today, and interest-sensitive assets — such as brick FIIs — have a recrimination trigger.

What Itaú defends: Selic a 14%

Bruno Serra, fund manager with history within the Central Bank, defends the most conservative scenario. Its projection of yours 14% implies a fall of only just one. ZQXX0ZZZ0ZZQQQQQQQQQ x zqx0ZZ0ZZ0ZZ0ZZ0ZZQQQQQQQQX PPppppppqq zqx00ZQ0ZZZQQQQQQQQQqqqq zq zqx zqx0Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzqqqqqqqqqqqqqqq. ppppppppppp p p p p p p p p p p p p p p pqqqqqqqqqqq. — in practice, almost no additional relevant cut after the initial movement. It is the thesis that the worst of the high has passed, but the relief will be minimal this year.

The premise here is that of inflation more resilient inflation more resilient and/or fiscal risk still on radar still on radar. In this world, the restrictive field remains necessary: cutting too fast would reacender price pressures, so Copom would prefer prudence. For the investor, the Itaú scenario is essentially, essentially, "more of the same" — the high real interest environment that punishes the stock market and keeps FIIs units discounted is prolonged.

Why 1 pp changes everything for FIIs pp

Here is the core of the question. Selic does not affect all FIIss in the same way — it affects them in the same way. Opposite directions opposite directions, depending on what the fund carries in the wallet. A percentage point is not noise: it is what decides which half of your FIIs slice wins and which loses.

Paper FIIs (CRI/CRA indexed to CDI)

Paper backgrounds buy paper backgrounds CRIsXQQQXX (Certificates of Receivables Real Estate) — debt securities of the real estate sector. The good part of them renders some of them. CDI + spread spread, i.e. the day rate plus a fixed premium (e.g. CDI + 2%). When the CDI is high, the provent is high directly and mechanically.

That is why these funds were the darlings of interest at 14.75%. But the same mechanism works the other way around on the descent: a CRI a CRI a CDI + 2%% Paying About Paid About R$ 0.80/quoted with the DI the 14% goes on to pay something close to R$ 0.75/quoted with DI to 13%. The dividend yield falls proportionally to the cut. In the Itaú scenario (14%), the CDI paper continues to pay very well; in the BTG scenario (13%), the yield shrinks little by little with each meeting of the Copom.

Detail that separates the funds: heavy wallets in the ZQXX0ZZQQX+ paper (who pay inflation plus fixed real interest) suffer from it. " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " with the fall of Selic than pure CDI-wallets, because the inflation component protects them from interest compression. In the transition of the cycle, paper IPCA+ tends to be more stable than paper CDI.

FIIs brick (slabs, shopping malls, logistics, residential)

Here the logic completely reverses. Brick backgrounds own physical real estate and live on rent. They are the ones they are. the large benefited large large large large or benefited large or large benefited or non-profit large large or large benefited large large or of a fall in interest rates, through three simultaneous channels:

• Minor discount rate. The fair value of a brick FII is the future flow of rents brought to present value. When interest falls, that discount rate drops — and the same rent becomes more valuable. It is pure financial mathematics: cutting the DI raises the fair value of the unit.
• Normalization of P/VP. Many brick funds trade today with P/VP compressed (below 1.00), because fixed income to 14% offers tough competition to rent. With lower interest rates, this discount begins to close and the unit tends to rise only by the reprecification.
• Cheaper leverage. Funds that use debt to acquire real estate pay less interest on it, freeing up cash to distribute.

In scenario BTG (13%), brick recovery can be done. express express express express express express express express — it is exactly the trigger by which the one who bought discount is waiting. In the Itaú scenario (14), the current environment is maintained: the unit holder continues to receive the monthly dividend, but the unit does not leave the place. Vale detailing the subsegmentos:

FoFs and FIIs diversified diversified FIIs

Funds of funds (FoFss FoFss FoFss, which invest in other FIIs) and hybrids get in the middle of the war cable: the result depends entirely on that. Portfolio composition of the portfolio. A brick-heavy FoF behaves like brick and wins in the BTG scenario; a FoF loaded with CDI paper gets defensive and preserves DY in the Itaú scenario. Before using a FoF as a directional bet, you need to open his wallet and see which side of the line he is on.

What to consider in your allocation

The practical question is not “who’s right, BTG or Itaú?” — it’s “what scenario talks to my horizon?”. The two theses lead to different portfolios:

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What if both of them are wrong?

The market consensus has already been overrun by Copom more than once. It is useful to map the extremes that neither of the two houses is tapping:

On the other side, if the o Fiscal surprise positively positively surprise fiscal surprise positively surprise — strong collections, more organized accounts —, Copom gains space to cut. the 13% in addition to the 13% The BTG. BTG. In that case, the brick rally would be even larger than the optimistic scenario predicts, and the CDI paper would lose attractiveness faster. In other words, both Mansueto and Serra may be on the wrong side of history, each for an opposite reason.

Conclusion: there is no "wait to see" for free.

The natural temptation is to stand still until Copom shows the cards. But this neutrality has a price. Who is who? 100% in box sleeps peacefully with the Selic to 14.25%, but The upside loses the upside loss In case of brick the BTG is right and recovery comes fast. Who is who? Only in tijololo bet on the reprecation, but but bet on the reprecation, but The bloody dividend yield yields. Month by month if the Itaú scenario is confirmed and the unit remains standing.

Fonts of all sources

• Your Money — Where to Invest in 2 2026 Half-Year (YouTube) — Mansueto Almeida (BTG) vs Bruno Serra (Itaú Asset) debate about Selic 2026.

About the author The author

Article author Article author Edin Bauer

Investor and founder of Rich to the Few.

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