Channel opinions, not investment recommendations. Medium-term view (1–2 years) subject to change.
Recommended Exposure
Portfolio Performance
Had you followed the portfolio since Jan/2026, rebalancing each timeChange History
FIIs upgraded to Bullish (20%) and cash cut to 10%
The turn that started on 14 Aug is now complete: Brazilian REITs (FIIs) move from Neutral to Bullish and from 15% to 20%, funded by cash, which falls from 15% to 10%. The thesis is about price, not the economic cycle — Brazil's economy is weak and this is an election year, but 68% of listed funds trade below 0.90x book value (median 0.83x) and the median yield of the class is 12.6% a year. On our own numbers, 202 of the 231 funds with a calculated fair value (87%) trade below it. Buying a large discount on an asset that pays rent every month does not require calling the election right: it requires the market to look at the class again once the noise clears. Cash is still good on its own merits — the Selic at 14% pays well — but holding it while units are cheap became an opportunity cost.
Fine-tuning: FIIs up, real estate to Neutral and Ibovespa out of Bearish
Calibration without a change of thesis. FIIs go from 10% to 15%: units remain discounted with high rates and we started turning. Real estate falls from 25% to 20% and moves from Bullish to Neutral — buying at auction is still very attractive, but the appreciation of the property itself is uninspiring in the short and medium term. Ibovespa moves from Bearish to Neutral: high rates still weigh on multiples, but the risk premium already prices much of that in and there are individual stocks with a very good case inside the index. Gold goes from Neutral to Bearish — after the recent run, the entry risk is asymmetric against you. Weight stays at 0%.
Macro rebalancing: FIIs downgraded to Neutral, more USD and real-asset protection
With Brazil's macro deteriorating (rising debt/GDP, long-term interest rates under pressure with no turnaround in sight without a change of government), we reduced Brazil-dependent risk and reinforced direct wealth protection. FIIs fall from Bullish to Neutral (20% → 10%): they keep generating income, but assets that depend on Brazil unlocking value tend to drift sideways or down in this environment. In return, USD rises to 25% (strong currency, ~R$ 5 vs. the R$ 6.20 peak, removes Brazil risk), Real Estate auctions rise to 25% (physical asset, no manager, rising rents, purchase discount) and IPCA+ Treasury falls to 5% (attractive rate, but if deterioration continues rates will rise further, marking the bond down). Cash (CDI) stays at 15% as dry powder yielding 14.5% to capture dips. Read the full article with the thesis for each sector.
Adjustment: USD to Bullish, Ibovespa to Bearish
USD at R$ 5.18 — entry point. Ibovespa with stretched valuations after a 34% rally. Reduced from 15% to 10% in IBOV, increased to 20% in USD.
Rebalancing: Gold as Barometer
FIIs 20%, USD 15%, Real Estate 15%, Ibovespa 15%, Cash 15%, TLT 10%, IPCA+ 10%. FIIs moved to Bullish.
Real Estate moves to Bullish
Auctions grew 86% in 2024. Unique opportunity with discounts of up to 60%. Read the full article.
New Rebalancing + Real Estate
USD 25%, Cash 20%, TLT 15%, Real Estate 15%, FIIs 10%, IPCA+ 10%, IBOV 5%.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Cash 25%, USD 25%, TLT 20%, FIIs 15%, IPCA+ 10%, IBOV 5%.
Bitcoin moves to Bearish
End of cycle, Strategy risk, exposure zeroed out.
Gold moves to Neutral
Stretched prices, waiting for a correction before entry.
TLT moves to Bullish
Historically low prices, limited downside, protective asset.
IPCA+ moves to Neutral
High rates but real fiscal risk. Mark-to-market can be negative.
App Launch
First version of the channel outlook.