Recommendation: BUY · Rating 8.4/10
Our current reading of XPML11 is BUY, with a score of 8.4/10. This score comes neither from the manager nor the administrator: it is Rico aos Poucos' editorial assessment, built from the documents the fund files with the CVM. Below is what supports it — and what argues against it.
XPML11 holds the #1 position among 9 peers in the bucket by combining leading scale (R$ 7.08 Bn net assets, 28 malls in 12 cities, 733,101 unitholders), a stable DPS at R$ 0.92 for 26 months and an LTV of only 7.4% — the lowest among the leveraged ones.
The fund distances itself from HGBS11 and PMLL11 through geographic diversification (12 different operators mitigate execution risk at any single asset), net delinquency falling to 1.7% in Mar/26 and an accumulated reserve (XPML+Omni+NeoMall) of ~R$ 2.99/unit — a cushion sufficient to honor R$ 421M in installments through 2027 without compromising the DPS floor.
Safety in a REIT is not yes or no — it is how much risk you accept. XPML11 has a medio risk profile. What that means in practice:
| Component | Level |
|---|---|
| Concentration | 2.5 |
| Price volatility | 2.5 |
| Dividend volatility | 1.3 |
| Liquidity | 1.5 |
| Underlying asset risk (with improved delinquency) | 2.8 |
| Financial/leverage risk | 2.5 |
Firm schedule updated in the Management Report Apr/26 (page 6): 3rd Jundiaí R$ 69.0M (Jun/26), 2nd Capitânia R$ 39.4M (Oct/26), 2nd Allos R$ 171.2M (Jan/27 — may be postponed +1 year at CDI+1.5%), 3rd Pátio Higienópolis R$ 41.9M (Apr/27), 2nd Iguatemi R$ 60.8M (Mar/27), 3rd Capitânia R$ 39.4M (Oct/27). Consolidated cash + investments (XPML+Omni+NeoMall+listed) at R$ 347M in Mar/26 cover 2026 with room to spare. The fund will need to combine monthly generation + 5% retention + eventual asset sales for 2027.
The MOU with Riza, the completed 14th offering (R$ 622M Mar/26), accumulated result of R$ 2.99/unit retained in the structure and low LTV (~7.4%) leave room for adequate management of the schedule
The Southeast accounts for ~72% of owned GLA and SP concentrates 16 of the 28 assets. In a São Paulo recession, vacancy and delinquency rise disproportionately. Partial protection via Salvador, Manaus, Curitiba, Natal and Porto Alegre.
Recent acquisitions (Iguatemi Ribeirão/Rio Preto, BH, Uberlândia) broaden exposure to inland SP/MG
Cost went from 11.4% (Aug/25) → 13.7% (Feb/26) → 12.2% (Mar/26). An improving trend after post-Christmas seasonal pressure. If sustained below 13%, it normalizes the flow of variable rent and renewals.
Sales/sqm grew +11.9% YoY (R$ 1,620 in Mar/26) and SSR +5.3% — tenants are renewing with positive adjustments
Net delinquency for the month of Mar/26 fell to 1.7% (vs 2.9% Feb/26 and ~5.6% peak Jan/26). The accumulated 2026 average is still at 4.8% because of the start of the year. The trend points to normalization over Q2/26.
Seasonal pattern confirmed — high delinquency in Jan-Feb normalizes by Mar-Apr; 12-month average already at 2.0%
Those who already hold mall FIIs (HGBS11, VISC11, MALL11) double their exposure. Partial overlap in assets via co-ownership (Iguatemi for example is shared). For real diversification, combine with logistics and paper.
Even among mall peers, XPML is unique for its size/diversification. It can be the core with peers as satellites
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| Falling Selic + rising IFIX | The BCB Focus survey projects Selic at 11% in 12m (vs 14.75% currently). High-grade brick-and-mortar FIIs reprice — XPML could rise 10-15% tracking the cycle |
| NOI of the Iguatemi acquisitions (Mar/26) materializing | The acquired portfolio has NOI/sqm 68.8% above the XPML average. As the cash comes in, it contributes to results and supports the DPS |
| Recovery of Brazilian retail | Sales/sqm already growing +11.9% YoY in Mar/26 and delinquency falling to 1.7%. If unemployment falls and real income rises, sales rise — increasing variable rent and SSR |
| Need for a new dilutive offering | If the unit falls below VP due to the interest-rate cycle, an eventual new offering to honor installments would be dilutive. The 14th offering came out above VP (R$ 108.16) |
| Prolonged São Paulo recession | 72% GLA in the Southeast / SP concentrates 16 assets. A prolonged local recession raises vacancy to 6%+ and delinquency to 5%+, pressuring the DPS |
| Occupancy cost rises again above 14% | Cost has already fallen to 12.2% in Mar/26, but if it reverses and exceeds 14% on a sustained basis, tenants start to seek negative renegotiations, pressuring NOI |
The XPML11 is Brazil's largest and most diversified mall FII. With R$ 7.08 Bn in net assets (monthly report Apr/26), 64.3M units, 733 thousand unitholders, 28 assets post-Iguatemi (Mar/2026), owned GLA of ~261 thousand sqm and exemplary active management by XP Vista Asset, the fund is the most complete way to obtain stabilized exposure to high-grade malls in Brazil.
The 8-year trajectory since the IPO (Dec/2017) shows transformational evolution: net assets multiplied 11x (from ~R$ 600M to R$ 7.08 Bn), owned GLA grew from 120 thousand to ~261 thousand sqm, and accumulated performance of +111.6% outperformed the IFIX (+76.5%) and CDI (+82.0%) per the Management Report Apr/26. All of this with a low management fee (0.75% p.a.) and documented active management — transactions in every quarter since inception.
Today the fund shows robust operating indicators for Mar/26: vacancy 3.7%, sales/sqm R$ 1,620 (+11.9% YoY), NOI/sqm R$ 130 (+10.5% YoY), SSR +5.3%, delinquency falling to 1.7% (vs 2.9% in Feb/26). The DPS is stabilized at R$ 0.92 for 26 months (May/24 to May/26) and the manager publishes explicit guidance of R$ 0.86-0.92 for H1/26. The accumulated reserve in the full structure (XPML+Omni+NeoMall) is at ~R$ 2.99/unit after the 14th offering — sustaining the floor even in an adverse scenario.
The main point of attention is the schedule of pending installments (R$ 421M through 2027), updated in the Management Report Apr/26 page 6: R$ 69M (Jun/26), R$ 39.4M (Oct/26), R$ 171.2M (Jan/27 — may be postponed), R$ 60.8M (Mar/27), R$ 41.9M (Apr/27) and R$ 39.4M (Oct/27). Consolidated cash + investments (XPML+Omni+NeoMall+listed) total R$ 347M in Mar/26 — covering 2026 with room to spare. For 2027, the fund will combine monthly generation + 5% retention (it can pay down debt) + disposals if necessary. The active management demonstrated in recent years suggests the challenge will be managed without compromising the DPS.
Current recommendation: BUY. Rating 8.4/10. The XPML11 is Brazil's largest and most diversified mall FII, with 28 assets in 12 cities and R$ 7.08 Bn in net assets (64.3M units, 733 thousand unitholders in Apr/26) after the acquisition of the Iguatemi portfolio (Mar/2026) , which added 5 premium stakes and raised the…
Our current read on XPML11 is “BUY”. Rating 8.4/10. Assess it against your risk profile and the points of attention listed above.
The main points of attention for XP Malls FII include: Acquisition installments total R$ 421M through 2027; Geographic concentration in São Paulo (~72% GLA); Occupancy cost at 12.2% (Mar/26) — improving vs Feb/26; MOU with Riza (Aug/25) for the sale of 9 stakes.
XPML11 is suitable for: Investor seeking a portfolio core in brick-and-mortar FIIs with scale and diversification Those who accept a moderate DY (~9.9%) in exchange for DPS predictability A moderate profile with a 3-5 year horizon