The market is discussing the dilution of 50% in the 6th emission float HGRU11 and the risk of the DPS falling during the ram-up. But the definitive documents published by the Homeland between 22 and 23 May (Anunciation of Home 1201802, Definitive Prospect 1201803, Blade 1201804 and Publicity Material 201805) reveal the opposite: the fund manager does not project the falling DPS. Project Going up. . From R$ 0,95 to R$ 0,97 in the short term and to R$ 1,01/unit in the medium term, with target DY of 9,0% after full allocation.
This changes the calculation for the unit holder who will participate in the preference, which opens on May 29 and closes on June 12, 2026. This re-analysis updates the 7,4 note to 7,6 (ACUMULAR), incorporating what the final documents delivered.
Why the Homeland projects the DPS growing during the ram-up
The most common intuition in large emissions is simple: the background captures R$ 1,5 bi (potentially R$ 1,875 bi with additional batch), the features enter the cashier and take months to become rent. Meanwhile, the number of units rises immediately and the DPS per unit drops. This has been the case in several sector emissions over the past three years.
Only that logic ignores the current level of Selic. With the basic rate in 13,75% per year, the capital raised yields about 1,14% per month in fixed income while awaiting allocation. The current recurring HGRU11 DPS is R$ 0,95 over R$ 128,87 VP — i.e. 0,74% per month. The account closes: Selic supports more than what is needed to keep the DPS stable during the allocation period.
The country identified approximately 27 strategic assets in the pipeline (declared in the Publicity Material 1201805) and projects three stages:
| Stage | DPS/unit/month | Revenue leased annually | DY assets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current (pre-issue) | R$ 0,95 | R$ 115,2 Mi | 8,8% |
| Short term (ramp-up) | R$ 0,97 | R$ 120,0 Mi | ~8,9% |
| Medium term (full allocation) | R$ 1,01 | R$ 124,8 Mi | 9,0% |
The technical point that few are looking at is another: the emission price was fixed at R$ 128,87, exactly equal to the VP per unit of 30/04/2026. There's no patrimonial dilution. The distribution rate of R$ 0,12 (total R$ 128,99 to the subscriber) and the coordination commission of R$ 4,71/unit (R$ 54,8 Mi in total) are arcades fully by the Country Manager, not the bottom. The current unit doesn't pay for the issue.
Preferential window — dates, price and factor
Right of preference B3: May 29 to June 11, 2026.
Bookkeeper: until June 12, 2026.
Leftover + additional lot: June 15-25, 2026.
DDA settlement: June 30, 2026.
Subscription price: R$ 128,99 (R$ 128,87 + R$ 0,12 distribution fee). Approximately 1,6% discount on market quotation of R$ 131,09.
Preferential factor: 0,50088755395 — every 1 unit gives you the right to subscribe to ~0,5 new unit. Coordinators: BTG Practical (leader) + Itaú BBA. Commission of R$ 4,71/unit (R$ 54,8 Mi) paid 100% by the Country, not the bottom.
Websites' DY is a statistical illusion
Who consults HGRU11 on popular portals sees DY in the range from 12% to 13%. This reading is wrong for comparison purposes with other FIIs and NTN-B. The number is inflated by two extraordinary distributions of the last 12 months:
- June 2025: R$ 1,55/unit (extraordinary recycling income)
- December 2025: R$ 1,45/unit (semester result + sale)
The recurrent scheme of the Fund is R$ 0,95/unit/month, which totals R$ 11,40 per year. About the VP of R$ 128,87, this gives DY of 8,8%. About the market quote of R$ 131,09, is 8,6%. This is the number that should be compared to the yield of other blue chip bricks and the yield of NTN-B 2035 (currently close to real 7,3%).
Track record validated in the Prospect: 182,4% in seven years
The Publicitarian Material 1201805, registered in the CVM, brings auditable figures on the history since the constitution in 2019:
- Cumulative return: 182,4% — equivalent to 14,5% for the compound year
- vs IFIX: +9.930 bps (+99,3 percentage points of accumulated performance)
- vs CDI: +8.590 bps
- vs. Tijolo-TEVA index: +15.810 bps
- Average historical P/VP: 1,00x — while the brick sector operated on average the discount 10% since 2022, HGRU kept parity or light prize
- Average TIR in recycling sales: more than 100%
These figures explain why the fund does not negotiate with the typical sector discount. The market paid consistently for the operational prize.
The result of Q4/2025 shows the actual slack
The Quarterly Report Q4/2025 (doc 1199351) records:
- Quarter result: R$ 87,17 Mi, equivalent to R$ 1,25/unit/month
- Rent recipe: R$ 60,1 Mi
- TVM revenue (CRIs + shares of other FIIs): R$ 27,7 Mi
- Payout of H2/2025: 99,66% (R$ 6,20/unit in the semester, average of R$ 1,03/unit/month)
That is, the fund is generating more result than it distributes. The performance rate of R$ 5,34 Mi paid in Q4/2025 (about R$ 0,23/unit) is precisely the sign that management delivered above the internal benchmark. Q1/2026 shows a partial burning of reserves, but within the expected months of carnival and pre-closed retailer harvest.
Concentration and salaries — Warnings That Don’t Change
The HGRU11 portfolio has 100 real estate in 16 states, with 600.276 m2 ABL and 9,2 WAULT years. The main tenants:
| Tenant | % of revenue | Sector |
|---|---|---|
| Carrefour | 24% | Food retail |
| Assai | 22% | Food Attack |
| Pernambucan | 17% | Retail clothing/home |
| YDUQS (IBMEC/Estacio Salvador) | 13% | Education |
| DMA | 5% | Regional Supermarket |
Three points require monitoring:
- 27% of contracts expire in 2028, concentrated on the properties occupied by YDUQS (IBMEC and Estácio Salvador). Brazilian private education undergoes consolidation and fall of enrollments — risk of renegotiation down or vacancy.
- 46% from Recipe comes from Food Retail (Carrefour + Assai). It's a defensive sector, but the concentration on two names adds risk-counterpart. It is worth remembering that Carrefour Brasil is controlled by Carrefour Global (France) — indirect foreign exchange exposure.
- 5,4% lever in CRIs of anchor tenants (Makro, Sendas, Una, MINT). It is controlled and structured, but adds a risk layer in real estate credit stress scenario.
Spread vs NTN-B shrunk — and that matters
In January 2025, the HGRU11 offered a spread of approximately 3,0 p.p. over the long NTN-B. Today the spread fell to about 1,3 p.p. (Recurring DY of 8,8% vs NTN-B 2035 near 7,3% real).
This shrinkage is not a failure of the fund — it is a reflection of the Brazilian real interest curve having opened while the HGRU maintained parity with the PV. But the investor who is setting up a position now needs to be clear: the risk premium is slimmer than it was 16 months ago. In the scenario of Selic stable or rising, there is little shock absorber.
What changes to the current unit
Three practical paths during the preferred window:
- Exert fully: every 1 unit generates right to ~0,5 new unit to R$ 128,99. For those who already trust the thesis and want to maintain proportional participation in the expanded fund, it is the neutral path. The 1,6% discount on the market is modest, but exists.
- Sell the right of preference on B3: between 29/05 and 11/06, the preference code will have liquidity. Anyone who does not want to increase exposure but also does not want to be diluted can monetize the right.
- Do not exercise: accept the dilution of participation. Whoever makes this choice needs to rely on the fact that the Homeland projects DPS rising, so the income effect on the existing units should be neutral or positive already in 6-9 months.
For those who still have no position, the calculation is different: the window of preference creates leftovers and additional lot (15-25 June), which historically in emissions from the Homeland come out with small residual demand. It is a possible entry point for those who accept the current spread vs NTN-B.
Verdict: 7,6 — ACUMULAR
The note rises from 7,4 to 7,6 based on the final documents of the 6th issue. The projection of the DPSland growing (R$ 0,95 → R$ 0,97 → R$ 1,01) is mathematically sustainable given the current level of Selic, and the fact that the commission of R$ 54,8 Mi is fully absorbed by the fund manager eliminates the direct cost on the current unit. Portfolio blue chip, occupation of 99,2%, WAULT 9,2 years, track record of 14,5% a year since 2019 with average P/VP of 1.00x.
Points that sustain ACUMULAR and do not BUY STRONG: spread vs NTN-B shrunk to 1,3 p.p., 27% of contracts win in 2028 with exposure to YDUQS, concentration of 46% in food retail and need for pipeline execution of 27 assets. For those who already have a position: to exercise preference or to sell the right. For those who are out: evaluate entry in the leftovers (15-25/06) or post-liquidation (30/06+).
