ITUB4 shares traded in the red on Thursday after Bradesco, Itaú, and Santander announced increases in mortgage rates—in some cases abruptly and without historical precedent—following the sharpest surge in long-term DI contracts in years. The trigger originated outside the banks, but the higher costs now fall directly on anyone looking to finance real estate.
ITUB4 Stock Price Today: Why Did Mortgage Rates Rise?
The answer begins with future interest rate contracts. On Monday, October 26, shortly after the confirmation of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's reelection, the DI futures contract maturing in January 2031 surged roughly 180 basis points in a single trading session. It moved from approximately 12.64% per year on the previous Friday to hit 15.25% during trading, according to ISTOÉ Dinheiro. B3 had to widen the upper fluctuation limits for DI contracts to accommodate the move, which reflected investors' reassessment of fiscal prospects for the upcoming term.
For financial institutions, the practical effect was immediate: the cost of raising capital in the capital markets to fund long-term loans rose sharply. Bradesco and Itaú together account for 41.4% of mortgage credit contracted using savings deposits nationwide—in a market that moved R$ 132.5 billion between January and August 2026, a 37.5% increase compared to the same period the previous year, according to industry data. With Bradesco's savings deposits falling 4.5% year-over-year (according to Exame), the bank already relied increasingly on market instruments—such as LCIs and longer-term funding—whose costs rose alongside the curve.
How Each Bank Positioned Itself—and Who Went Beyond Reason
Bradesco moved first on Monday, October 26, raising its minimum rate for most clients from 11.69% to 15.00% per year, plus the Reference Rate (TR)—a jump of 3.3 percentage points all at once. Itaú waited until Thursday, October 29, to announce an adjustment from 11.99% to 12.95% per year plus TR. Santander confirmed late Thursday afternoon that it would also adjust rates starting Friday, October 30, setting 12.49% per year as its new floor, plus TR, which currently sits near 2% per year.
| Bank | Previous Rate (p.a. + TR) | New Minimum Rate (p.a. + TR) | Effective Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bradesco | 11.69% | 15.00% | 10/26/2026 |
| Itaú | 11.99% | 12.95% | 10/29/2026 |
| Santander | 11.69% | 12.49% | 10/30/2026 |
Caixa Econômica Federal and Banco do Brasil have not yet announced changes; both are currently in their quiet period ahead of quarterly earnings releases.
Why Bradesco's Adjustment Is Unconventionally Sharp
Paulo Padro, co-founder and mortgage credit specialist at MyCred, evaluated Bradesco's move in comments to InfoMoney:
"Mortgage rate adjustments usually happen gradually, generally between 0.1 and 1 percentage point. A 3.3-percentage-point increase all at once, like Bradesco's, is completely outside the norm. Our assessment is that it was a way for the bank to make its financing less attractive compared to competitors and put the brakes on new originations."Paulo Padro, mortgage credit specialist, InfoMoney
This reading makes sense when examining the bank's funding structure. With savings deposits declining and market funding becoming more expensive, slowing the pace of new originations without formally closing the credit portfolio is a way to manage the balance sheet without creating regulatory friction. Itaú, with an adjustment of 0.96 percentage points, stayed within what the specialist classified as "normal given the future interest rate environment." For investors following recent movements in ITUB4 stock, the key takeaway is that the institution can capture wider spreads on new contracts—provided demand can withstand the price shock.
What Changes for Homebuyers Right Now
The most immediate effect hits the monthly payment. A R$ 500,000 mortgage over 30 years that cost around R$ 6,020 per month under Itaú's previous rate rises to approximately R$ 7,250 under the new one—nearly 20% higher on the initial payment, according to simulations compiled by Exame. Families maintaining fixed payment amounts lose roughly 17% in financing capacity, forcing them to provide a larger down payment or reduce the loan amount.
Attention: FGTS and SFH fall out of reach with the new rates. The ceiling for the Housing Financial System (SFH) is 12% per year. Itaú's new rate (12.95%) and Bradesco's (15%) exceed this limit, meaning contracts signed under these conditions do not qualify for the SFH and therefore do not allow the use of FGTS (severance indemnity fund) balances for down payments or amortization. Murilo Arjona, a housing credit specialist, notes that banks had already been pushing to raise this 12% ceiling to 13% per year, but the change has not yet occurred.
Clients with established relationships with the banks—such as direct salary deposit accounts, insurance, and investments—typically receive preferential conditions below published floors. However, for those without this history, the impact is full scale. Borrowers who had proposals approved prior to the adjustments will need to verify whether the institution will honor the rate lock or if terms have changed.
Why Equity FIIs Absorbed the Hardest Hit
The IFIX real estate fund index ended Thursday at 3,632.26 points, down 0.60% for the day. That figure looks contained, but it follows an exceptional week: on Monday, October 26, the index fell more than 8% during the session—triggering B3's circuit breaker for the first time since March 2020—after ending the previous week at 3,990 points, its highest level in 52 weeks. Lula's reelection effectively wiped out in hours the rally that real estate investment funds (FIIs) had accumulated throughout October.
The mechanism is direct: equity funds are worth today what the market is willing to pay for future rental income, discounted by a rate. When long-term interest rates spike, that discount rate rises and the present value of lease contracts falls, regardless of whether properties are occupied. JSRE11, according to SpaceMoney, fell 14.21% on Monday to R$ 61.26, exemplifying the move. The rise in mortgage rates adds a second layer of pressure over the medium term: more expensive financing reduces demand for residential acquisitions through banks, which can affect the pace of new developments and real estate development funds. The rally that ITUB4 and B3SA3 recorded after the first round of voting highlighted the volatility the election cycle injected into financial assets, and this week's movement is the exact reverse of that trading session.
What About Caixa? What to Watch in Coming Days
Caixa Econômica Federal is the most relevant piece that has not yet moved. Responsible for roughly 70% of the country's housing credit, with a portfolio exceeding R$ 1 trillion and over-the-counter rates starting at 11.19% per year—still below private peers—Caixa has not announced changes and remains in its quiet period. If it follows the move of the three private banks, the impact on the real estate market will be incomparably larger, because Caixa underwrites the bulk of operations utilizing FGTS and the SFH ceiling.
Caixa Econômica Federal's announcement—any adjustment above 12% per year changes access to FGTS for most contracts and signals the new effective floor for the Brazilian housing market.
Copom meeting in November—if future interest rates decline alongside fiscal signals from the government, banks may reverse part of their spreads; if the Selic rate rises higher than expected, further adjustments will follow.
IFIX below 3,550 or above 3,800—below 3,550 confirms that the repricing of equity funds has not yet found a floor; above 3,800, the market has already accommodated the new future interest rate curve.
