ITUB4: What Happened to the Projections and the Cost of Capital Relevance2,0
Intermediate PTENES

ITUB4: What Happened to the Projections and the Cost of Capital

Itaú Unibanco filed a notice with Brazil's securities regulator regarding its 2026 outlook and a new cost of capital benchmark adopted in November.

Itaú Unibanco informed Brazil's securities regulator, the CVM, in a material fact filing on November 3, 2026, that it has revised its 2026 outlook and that, starting in November, it has managed the bank using a cost of capital of around 15.25% per year. ITUB4 stock is not mentioned in this filing as targeted for delisting or ticker changes; the document addresses the bank's expectations, and the projection figures were not included in the excerpt of the document available to us.

ITUB4: What Happened?

The material fact filing was submitted to the CVM at 6:29 PM on November 3, 2026, and signed by Gustavo Lopes Rodrigues, Investor Relations Officer. Itaú stated that the filing complies with article 157, paragraph 4, of Law No. 6,404/76 and CVM Resolution No. 44/21, and that the revised 2026 projections are located in item 3 ("Projections") of the company's Reference Form.

In other words, the announcement has two parts: the revision of the annual outlook and the change in the rate the bank uses to decide where to allocate capital. The second part comes in a single sentence worth reading in full:

"It is important to note that, starting in November 2026, the Company began considering a cost of capital of around 15.25% p.a. in the management of its business."Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., Material Fact filed with the CVM on November 3, 2026

That is very little text for an announcement affecting the stock of one of the country's largest banks. And that is precisely where investor questions arise: what, exactly, has changed?

What Does It Mean for the Bank to Manage Its Business with a 15.25% Cost of Capital?

Cost of capital is the minimum return a company demands on shareholders' money. In management, it acts as a benchmark: an operation, product, or portfolio that yields less than this rate destroys value, even if it generates an accounting profit. When Itaú states that it began considering this rate "in the management of its business," it means this is the hurdle internal decisions must now clear.

The document does not state what the previous rate was. Therefore, based on what the bank published, it is impossible to confirm whether the requirement increased or decreased. The prevailing interpretation is that a higher rate demands a greater return per real allocated, and that this could weigh on the company's valuation if earnings do not keep pace. It is a plausible interpretation, but it depends on a comparison with the previous level, which the text does not provide.

What Are the Numbers in the Revised Outlook?

In the transcribed excerpt of the material fact, no projection figures appear. The body of the document refers to the Reference Form, and the text only leaves three footnotes: one states that one of the items includes financial guarantees provided and private securities; another indicates that an item is composed of expected loss expenses, granted discounts, and the recovery of written-off loans; and a third notes that another combines fee income, results from insurance, pension, and capitalization operations, and claims expenses. Without the table, there is no way to tell what was revised or in what direction.

PointWhat the Bank StatesWhat the Text Does Not Provide
2026 OutlookRevised and disclosed on November 3, 2026, in item 3 of the Reference FormThe values and ranges for each line item
Cost of CapitalAround 15.25% p.a., starting in November 2026The rate used previously
Nature of Projections"Mere forecasts," based on management's current expectationsAny guarantee that results will repeat

The bank emphasizes that actual results may differ from projections, as they depend on market conditions, the performance of the domestic economy, the sector, and international markets. This is the standard disclaimer for any forecast, but it carries more weight here because readers have not yet seen the figures to compare.

Did ITUB4 Stock Disappear, Get Delisted, or Fall Because of This?

Nothing in the material fact mentions delisting, a ticker change, or leaving the stock exchange. Anyone unable to find or sell the stock through their brokerage should not look for the cause in this document, which is an outlook statement.

Regarding price, the available data precedes the announcement: on the last recorded trading session, October 27, 2026, ITUB4 closed at R$ 41.17, down 1.27% on the day and up 10.57% over 12 months. Because the material fact was released late in the afternoon on November 3, market reaction to it is not reflected in those figures. The recent backdrop of volatility involving elections and earnings is covered in our analysis of why ITUB4 stock dropped, and does not stem from this announcement.

What This Means for ITUB4 Unitholders

Nothing changes regarding your position because of the material fact itself: you continue to own the same shares, and the text does not announce a dividend, asset sale, or corporate restructuring. What changes is the analytical benchmark. When the bank releases its next earnings report, the key question will be whether the return generated exceeds the rate the bank now claims to require of itself. Regarding distributions, the record date and rules for the new JCP (Interest on Equity) were addressed separately in our article on Itaú's JCP, while the ITUB4 quotes, dividends, and documents page compiles the historical record.

What to Monitor Going Forward

1

The table in item 3 of the Reference Form — compare each line item with the bank's previous projection to see whether revisions trended upward or downward.

2

The previous cost of capital level — without it, the 15.25% figure does not indicate whether the hurdle rate has risen; look for this information in the bank's prior communications.

3

The upcoming earnings report — check whether reported returns fall above or below the rate the bank stated it uses in its management.