The recommended channel exposure was without a structural review since January. May arrived with a clear message from the Brazilian macro scenario, and the model portfolio needed to respond to it. The summary is simple: we reduce what depends on Brazil unlocking value and reinforce what protects the patrimony directly — strong and active physical currency.
What has changed in this review
- FIIs: downgraded from Optimist to Neutral — exposure of 20% → 10%
- Dollar: Keeps Optimistic — Up from 20% → 25%
- Real estate: Keeps Optimistic — Up from 15% → 25%
- IPCA+ Treasury: Keeps Neutral — Fall from 10% → 5%
The background: risk-Brazil without turning horizon
The mother thesis of this review is the macro scenario of the country. The tax situation continues to deteriorate, the debt/GDP continues to increase and long interest continues to be pressed. In this environment, even good Brazilian assets — who perform relatively well in the operational — can't unlock value. . They tend to lateralize down.
Unless there is a concrete turn of scenery (a change of government to a profile that the market reads with good eyes, for example), the short and medium term of these assets is a locked premium. So the decision is not "sell Brazil", but reduce the weight of what needs the country to walk to deliver return and migrate for protection.
FIIs: from Optimist to Neutral (20% → 10%)
This is the central change. There's nothing wrong with the FIIs' income -- they keep paying monthly dividends, and that's precisely why We don't. the position. The problem is capital gain: when you buy an IFI, it depends on the fund manager and the country to value yourself. And the country, today, is not cooperating.
Reduce to 10% and lower to Neutral is to recognize that the FII becomes a position of income, not high thesis. . It's still in the portfolio for the monthly distribution, but it loses the priority it had when the feeling was optimistic. The capital that comes out of here goes to dollar protection and to the physical asset that doesn't depend on any fund manager.
Auction properties: from 15% to 25% (Optimist)
We raise auction properties to one of the biggest slices of the portfolio because it is today one of the best ways to protect equity:
- You buy with discount at the auction and can sell more expensive.
- It's physical and it's yours. — does not depend on fund manager to make a good allocation for you.
- Rent's getting more and more expensive., then recurrent income accompanies inflation.
- It is a heritage of very low risk: even in a scenario where Brazil gets worse for good, the property holds well the tips.
Dollar: from 20% to 25% (Optimist)
The dollar is the most convincing position in the portfolio. The ~R$ 5 — against the R$ 6,20 you've already scored — the entry point is fine. And the central argument is relative: as bad as the situation in the United States may be, Brazil's is much worse. . The dollar is the currency of the world; one cannot deny that it is a much stronger asset than the real one.
Increase to 25% is the most direct way to take the risk-Brazil out of play and diversify geographically. It can also add yield (~10% a.a. via stablecoins on platforms such as Coinbase/Nexo), without IOF.
Box (CDI): maintained in 15% (Optimist)
The cashier continues as dry powder. . The real tends to live with more inflation and to devalue itself, but the CDI to 14,5% a year holds the cash in the short term and still corrects it by inflation. His function is double: emergency reserve and ammo for opportunities.
While there is no clear prospect for the future, keeping from 15% to 20% in box allows you to act fast. If one day the market falls 30% at once, it is with the cashier — liquid and available — that one buys. While this crash doesn't show up, he's surrendering and correcting himself.
IBOV: maintained in 10% (Pestimist)
The scholarship is already beating historical maxims, and we believe in a possible reversal in the coming months or next year. So the feeling in the index as a whole is pessimistic, and the orientation is to get light.
But pessimism in the aggregate does not mean total absence. There's always assets walking backwards the market — cheap paper, with turnaround thesis, which you can buy selectively. If you're going to position, pick your finger. Overall, however, IBOV remains pessimistic.
TLT: maintained in 10% (Neutral)
The TLT (Long Titles of the American Treasury) is not a position of high conviction, but it is in the lower historical prices. . It serves to diversify into a dollarized asset and, again, take risk-Brazil. The good point of entry into such an asset is precisely in pessimism — when the scenario turns to optimistic, the price has already recovered. We keep the 10% as diversification.
IPCA+ Treasury: from 10% to 5% (Neutral)
The IPCA+ rate is attractive, but the risk is asymmetric against the title. If the tax situation continues to deteriorate, the rates tend to Upstairs — and long indexed title loses value to the market when the interest rises.
That's a good bet. if Brazil improves (in a government exchange, for example) and a bad bet if the deterioration continues. As the background today points to the bad side, we have reduced to 5% — a small position, of diversification, not of conviction.
Gold and Bitcoin: out (0%)
Gold It’s a good asset, but it’s already overrated — the booming variation of recent years shows how expensive it has become. No discount and no practical use at the moment, no interest. It is in 0% (Neutro) until a relevant correction.
Bitcoin: It's not time yet
The best period of purchase tends to be end 2026 to mid 2027 — the bottom of the bottom usually comes before a long lateralization, and we do not think that that moment has arrived. Until then, no rush: regardless of the price, we would only allocate to something like US$ 30-40 thousand. Buy now, on the two-year horizon, just anticipate damage. Next on 0% (Pessimist).
Recommended allocation — May/2026
| Sector | Feeling | Prev | Now. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dollar | Optimist | 20% | 25% |
| Real Estate (Auction) | Optimist | 15% | 25% |
| Box (CDI) | Optimist | 15% | 15% |
| FIIs | Neutral | 20% | 10% |
| IBOV | Pessimistic | 10% | 10% |
| TLT | Neutral | 10% | 10% |
| IPCA+ Treasury | Neutral | 10% | 5% |
| Gold | Neutral | 0% | 0% |
| S&P500 | Pessimistic | 0% | 0% |
| Bitcoin | Pessimistic | 0% | 0% |
In the aggregate, the wallet becomes 3 optimistic sectors (Dólar, Real Estate, Cash = allocation 65%), 4 Neutral (FIIs, TLT, IPCA+, Gold) and 3 pessimists (IBOV, S&P500, Bitcoin). The axis moves clearly for protection: dollar and physical asset in command, IFI retreating to income function.
How the wallet has been performing
The best way to charge macro reading is to measure, objectively, how much a portfolio would be worth today that had followed the exposure of the channel. Starting from R$ 100 thousand in Jan/2026 — considering price changes in indices more the profitability of each class (dividends/interests) — the portfolio would be worth today R$ 102.910:
The one who pulled the result was the IBOV (+11,4% with dividends) and Box/CDI (+5,6%); TLT (−1,7%) was the only one in the red, and the dollar stood aside (+0,2%) — the yield of ~7% a.a. in stablecoin almost cancelled the drop in exchange rate. It's the photo of first move (jan → mayi); at each new rebalancing, this number evolves and shows, in the long term, whether the prospects of the channel are right. Follow live on Market Expectations → Wallet Performance.
Conclusion
This review is a direct response to the macro. As long as Brazil does not aim for a better direction, the capital that depends on the country unlocks value — in the case of FIIs — loses priority to what it directly protects: strong currency (dollar, TLT) and Non-intermediate physical assets (tender real estate), with heavy box as ammunition.
If the scenario turns — a well received government exchange for example — the reading changes and FIIs, IBOV and IPCA+ Treasury are once again attractive. For now, the feeling is defense.
Warning: this is the opinion of the channel on medium-term allocation (1-2 years) and does not constitute investment recommendation. Each investor must assess his own risk profile. Feelings and percentages are subject to change as the scenario evolves.
