According to InfoMoney, Petrobras ADRs (PBR/PETR3) fell 4.04% in New York on Monday (November 2) while the Brazilian stock exchange remained closed for the All Souls' Day holiday. This drove the price action for PETR3 while the B3 was shut, and today Copom convenes for its rate decision with the Selic rate at 13.75% and government allies pushing for cuts.
What Happened to PETR3 Shares?
ADRs are depository receipts traded in the United States, and they were the only vehicle trading on Monday. According to InfoMoney, the Dow Jones Brazil Titans 20 index, which tracks 20 major Brazilian companies with ADRs in New York, closed lower, with "especially sharp" declines in Petrobras shares dragging down the broader index.
The report does not point to a company-specific reason for the drop. Instead, it highlights broader sentiment in the Brazilian market: a sharp pullback following Lula's reelection, which, in InfoMoney's words, clouded the outlook for cheaper credit. On Tuesday (November 3) at 9:03 a.m., Ibovespa futures were down 1.57% at 167,820 points. Because today marks the first trading session in reais since the ADR movement, the full impact on the stock in São Paulo is being gauged throughout the day.
Was PETR3 Delisted or Removed from Brokerage Accounts?
Neither source mentions any delisting, suspension, or ticker change for PETR3. Investors attempting to check quotes or sell shares on Monday hit a holiday roadblock: the B3 was closed. Trading resumed on Tuesday.
If the stock still fails to appear in your brokerage account after the market opens, the issue likely stems from the app or custody provider rather than Petrobras itself. However, this is our assessment rather than a direct statement from the sources, which simply noted that the exchange was closed. For specific account issues, investors should consult their brokers.
Why Is Today's Copom Meeting Under Political Pressure?
Ahead of the meeting, government lawmakers launched sharp criticisms against both the market and the Central Bank. According to InfoMoney, expectations prior to Lula's victory pointed to a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic rate; following the runoff, however, parts of the market began doubting a rate reduction due to fiscal uncertainty surrounding the new term. This reassessment angered administration allies.
“They are playing politics and sabotaging our economy.”Congressman Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ), via social media platform X, according to InfoMoney
Farias also stated that Selic decisions should not be dictated by the "mood of the financial market" and criticized Central Bank Governor Gabriel Galípolo. Gleisi Hoffmann (PT-PR) wrote that "this financial market has the DNA of authoritarianism." Zeca Dirceu (PT-PR) took a more moderate stance, noting: "Interest rates need to come down, but it cannot be forced."
Frictions also exist within the ruling coalition. José Sérgio Gabrielli, coordinator of Lula's government platform and former CEO of Petrobras, backed André Lara Resende's proposal to create a council to coordinate fiscal and monetary policy. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Dario Durigan publicly rejected administrative caps on interest rates. According to InfoMoney, Lara Resende's proposal, cited in the reports, would bring the Selic rate down to 7.5% within 12 months. To track the interest rate and meeting schedule, our page on today's Selic rate and the upcoming Copom meeting remains updated.
What Is the Fixed-Income Market Pricing In?
Higher risk premiums. Yields on Tesouro Direto government bonds opened higher across all maturities on Tuesday, according to InfoMoney, with several surpassing levels seen during the initial trading session following the election.
| Bond | Today's Rate | Daily Rise |
|---|---|---|
| Prefixado 2029 | 15.19% | 23 bps |
| Prefixado 2032 | 15.63% | 27 bps |
| Prefixado com Juros Semestrais 2037 | 15.50% | 28 bps |
| IPCA+ 2032 | IPCA + 8.03% | 14 bps |
| IPCA+ 2050 | IPCA + 7.44% | 16 bps |
The Prefixado 2037 surpassed the 15.42% opening rate recorded on October 26, when fixed-rate bonds posted their largest single-day jump in historical records. The Prefixado 2032 remains below that day's record of 15.78%. Since the close on October 23, the final trading session before the runoff, this bond has accumulated a rise of 2.74 percentage points.
Public debt is driving this anxiety. According to DF Soberano, gross public debt reached R$ 11.1 trillion, with debt servicing costs exceeding R$ 1.2 trillion over a 12-month period. Gabrielli points to this financing cost to advocate for lower interest rates, whereas the market uses it to demand fiscal adjustment. The Central Bank's Focus Report highlights this discomfort: projections for 2026 IPCA inflation rose from 5.19% to 5.22%, the exchange rate forecast moved from R$ 5.05 to R$ 5.34, and GDP growth expectations ticked down from 1.80% to 1.76%.
What Does This Mean for PETR3 Shareholders?
The reports provide no new fundamental data regarding Petrobras—no earnings, dividends, or corporate decisions. The ADR decline tracked broader market trends and cannot be directly attributed to Copom or any single catalyst. For shareholders, the impact is psychological and tied to opportunity cost: with government bonds yielding over 15% annually on fixed-rate instruments, equities must offer higher returns to compensate for risk. Long-term investors focused on dividends and a multi-year horizon have no fundamental reason to sell based on a single session. Short-term traders, however, should expect heightened volatility in the days ahead. For a look at company-specific headwinds, our article on Goldman Sachs' warning on diesel prices outlines what weighs on the company independent of the Selic rate.
What to Watch Moving Forward
The Copom Decision — whether rates hold at 13.75% or are cut; before the election, consensus expected a 0.25 percentage point reduction, and the final decision is still pending.
The Prefixado 2032 — if yields exceed 15.78%, the bond will surpass its October 26 opening record, signaling that the market is demanding even higher risk premiums.
The Ibovespa — futures traded at 167,820 points at 9:03 a.m.; follow the Ibovespa today to see whether the sell-off holds or reverses by the close.
The Focus Report — with the dollar projected at R$ 5.34 and 2026 inflation at 5.22%, continued upward revisions reinforce the thesis of higher-for-longer interest rates.