TEPP11 9.04 declined from R$ 9.04 in April to R$ 8.02 today — 11.3% drop in two months. In the last 30 days, the exchange rate has dropped 8.9%. Three questions are in the head of every unitholder now: why did it fall? The R$ 0.131 dividend will disappear in August? Is it worth buying at this price?
1. Why did the cottage fall?
The short answer: the market is pricing the dividend step-down. And you're right to do that.
The DPS of R$ 0.131/month that 0.131/month TEPP11 It is capital gain from the sale of São Luiz Condominium, held in 2025 with profit of R$ 39.8 million (TIR of 11% over cost of R$ 171.5 Mi acquired in 2020-Z). This extra cash is being distributed month by month, and the deadline ends in July/2026.
From August/2026, the DPS should converge to the recurring operating income of the portfolio: range of R$ 0.074 to R$ 0.080/month. This represents a drop of approximately 40% in the monthly dividend.
Current DPS: R$ 0.131/month → DPS recurrent estimated (post-August/26): R$ 0.074–0.080/month. Reduction of ~40%. DY recurring estimate on current quote: 11.3% a.a. — slightly below the liquid CDI of ~12.3%.
With the quotation in R$ 9.04 (April), the DY recurring of 11.3% would be well below the CDI. The market has opened discount to bring the yield to a more competitive level against fixed income. The unit in R$ 8.02 reflects this adjustment — rational, not panic.
What the price still does not fully capture is the patrimonial discount of 16.8% (P/VP 0.832): the quote trades with a real discount of R$ 1.62 per quote in relation to the VP of R$ 9.64. This gap goes beyond the pricing of the step-down and opens space for those who believe in the execution of Tellus in the medium term.
2. The dividend of R$ 0.131 will disappear for once in August?
Do not "submit" — it will fall. The distinction matters.
The recurring portfolio DPS, in the normal operating income of 6 real estate, is in the range of R$ 0.074–0.080/month. This is the floor from August. But there are three events that can raise that number in the next few months: 12–18 months:
1. Passarelli MoU (27/05/2026): the fund manager signed a non-binding memorandum to alienate the Passarelli building (7,130 m2, Pinheiros).). Estimated profit of R$ 27 million, equivalent to R$ 0.55/unit. If completed, this operation generates yet another capital gains cycle for distribution – exactly as happened with São Luiz.
2. Torre Sul in the divestment window: "performed" in April/2026, the South Tower (Berrini, Class A LEED Platinum, 9,950 m2, WAULT 13.1 years) is the most mature asset in the portfolio. A cap-rate sale of 7.5–8% would release a relevant GC (the asset represents 18.6% of the portfolio and has a financial maturity of only 0.91%). The owner has a history of: São Luiz was sold with TIR 11%.
3. New acquisitions of 5a issue: 5a issue: The captured R$ 120.1 Mi (12.4 Mi new units at R$ 9.71, subscription between 16/06 and 16/11/2026, restricted to Professional Investors) are being allocated. The commitment to the Ed. Parque Cultural Paulista (9 sets, 5,033 m2, R$ 77.1 Mi) has already been signed. If allocated at cap rate ≥ 9%, the recurring DPS rises to the range of R$ 0.10+/month.
The average WAULT portfolio is in 5.0 years, with 78.1% of contracts corrected by IPCA. The operating income will not disappear — it will just stop counting on the extraordinary income of São Luiz.
3. The portfolio is inside the portfolio.
| Ativo | LocationLocation | ABL(m2) | Port % Port % | Vacança Vacança | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| the Torre Torre Torre Torre Sul the Torre Torre Torre the the Torre Torre the the Torre Torre the the Torre Torre Sul Sul Sul Sul the Torre Torre Torre Torre the the Torre Torre Sul Sul Sul Sul Sul Sul the Torre Torre the Torre Torre the Torre Torre the the Torre the the Torre Torre Torre the the the Torre Torre Torre the the Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre the the the the Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre the the the the Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre Torre | Berrini, SPX | 9.950 | 18,6% | 5.5% Fis. | Performada abr/26 — window of open sale. LEED Platinum. WAULT 13.1 years. |
| Passarelli Passarelli | Pine trees, SPX | 7.130 | 12,7% | 0% | Signed alienation MoU (27/05). GC estimado R$ 27 Mi / R$ 0.55/quote. |
| Fujitsu Fujitsu | Paulista, SPX | 4.985 | 8,3% | 0% | 100% occupied. WAULT 3.9 years. Risk of tenant-anchor renewal. |
| BFL | Faria Lima, SP | 5.761 | 16,4% | 0% | Retrofit in progress. 100% occupied. WAULT 3.5 years. |
| GPA | Gardens, SPX | — | 17,6% | — | Monousuario Casino/GPA. RJ extrajudicial — confirmed compliance. WAULT 1.4 year. |
| Top Center Top Center Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Top Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Center Top Top Center Top Center Top Top Top | Paulista, SPX | — | 26,4% | 18.2% Fis. | Greater asset and greater risk. Elevator CAPEX/AC not dimensioned. |
The Top Center is the critical point. With 26.4% portfolio and 18.2% physical vacancy, it is the asset that puts the most pressure on the recurring DPS. The CAPEX necessary for retrofitting elevators and air conditioning has not yet been scaled — which makes it difficult to estimate the return on capital invested in vacuum absorption. If the fund manager manages to locate these floors until the end of 2027, the impact on DPS would be positive from R$ 0.30 to R$ 0.50/quote in the pricing.
The GPA is the risk of tail. Represents 17.6% of fund revenues, has WAULT of only 1.4 year, and is in extrajudicial judicial recovery (Casino/GPA). The compliance is confirmed — but if you do not renew the contract, the impact on the unit would be from R$ 0.60 to R$ 1.00 down at the fair price. It is the most binary risk of the portfolio.
The Leverage: R$ 99.8 Mi in CRIs IPCA+ represent 20.9% of PL, with amortizations starting July/2026 and January/2027. Cash flow for the remaining acquisitions (BFL + Top Center, ~R$ 99 Mi) is covered until August/2027 without new forced emissions — according to management projection.
4. The fair price range is fair.
The methodology is sum of the parts: performant assets (South Tower, Fujitsu, GPA) evaluated at cap rate of 7.5–8%; BFL with discount of 5% for retrofit in progress; Passarelli in line with ZQX8X% by VP; Top Center with discount of ZQX% Adjustment for the debt of CRIs IPCA+ at present value (-R$ 99.8 Mi).
Conservative — R$ 8.50:: GPA does not renew, Top Center maintains vacancy, emission captures less than 50%. Security margin on the current price: +5.9%.
Base — R$ 9.25:: Normal execution, South Tower sold at cap rate 7.5–8%, Top Center absorbs vacuum partially up to 2027. Margin: +15.4%.
Optimist — R$ 10.00:: South Tower + Passarelli sold with GC, Top Center in full occupation, Selic retreats to 12% to 2027. Margin: +24.7%.
| ense | Impact on price Impact on price Impact on price |
|---|---|
| Sale South Tower cap rate 7.5%% 7.5% | +R$ 0.50 to R$ 0.80/quoted |
| Top Center: Vacancies retreats to 5%% | +R$ 0.30 to R$ 0.50/quoted |
| Selic falls for 12% in 2027X% | +R$ 0.80 to R$ 1.20/quoted |
| GPA does not renew contract contract | -R$ 0.60 to -R$ 1.00/quoted |
| Emission capture less than 50% of 50% | -R$ 0.20 to -R$ 0.40/quoted |
With the quotation at R$ 8.02, the fair price floor (conservative scenario: R$ 8.50) represents only 6% of upside — low margin to absorb negative surprises. The base scenario of R$ 9.25 assumes that Tellus executes at least two of the three catalysts (South Tower, Top Center, emission). The fund manager has a favorable history: CAGR of DPS of 19.1% from IPO to 2019, and sale of São Luiz with TIR of 11% as recent proof of execution.
5. Vale accumular?
P/VP 0.832 discount real estate of 16.8%. For those who believe that Tellus executes the divestments (South Tower + Passarelli) and that the Top Center absorbs vacancy partially up to 2027, the current price embodies a reasonable safety margin. Absolute note: 6.4 (MANTER).
For those who already have TEPP11: The dividend step-down is coming — it's right. The fall of the DPS from R$ 0.131 to R$ 0.074–0.080 in August will happen. But the price already deducts much of it. Selling now means to realize the loss of those who bought between R$ 8.50 and R$ 9.50 without capturing any of the catalysts that can raise the unit (desinvestment South Tower, MoU Passarelli, Top Center absorption). Keeping it up makes sense for those who have horizon of 12–24 months.
For those who want to enter: the input logic in R$ 8.02 is not "locking R$ 0.131 for another two months". This is the medium-term thesis: 16.8% discount + fund manager with track record + cycle of ongoing divestments. The recurring DY of 11.3% isolated does not pay the liquid CDI of 12.3% — then the thesis needs one or more catalysts to materialize.
The risk of "triple whammy": If WAULT 1.4 year (WAULT year), Top Center remain with 18% vacancy, and the emission capture less than 50%, the unit can fall back to R$ 6.50–7.00. This is not the base scenario, but it is the tail risk that justifies not allocating concentrated position.
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