Context: Where we came from
In January, unit dropped from R$93 to R$78 after review of the guideline. The fund manager explained in live that the problem was timing, not ability. Dividend dropped to R$0,71. . From there to here, the unit continued to fall and now negotiates at the home of the R$70 — a fall of 25% since the peak of December. Now, with the official balance sheet audited by KPMG and the February management report at hand, we have the data to understand what's really going on.
Current photo: April 2026
The unit negotiates in the house of the R$70, while the audited asset value is R$110. 36% discount. The market is pricing the fund as if something was fundamentally wrong. Does the balance sheet confirm? Or exaggerate? Let's dissect the papers.
What the Balance 2025 Says (and what he hides)
The accounting statements were audited by KPMG and approved on 31 March 2026. KPMG issued look clean, without reservation. The numbers are reliable from an accounting point of view. But reliable numbers are not the same as encouraging numbers.
The Balance Sheet Numbers
| Indicator | 2025 | 2024 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | ZQX0ZX MI | ZQX0ZX MI | +35,8% |
| Net profit | ZQX0ZX MI | ZQX0ZX MI | +48,0% |
| Dividends Paid | ZQX0ZX MI | ZQX0ZX MI | -10,3% |
| Distribution - Profit | -ZQX0ZX MI | -ZQX0ZX MI | It's better. |
| Total expenditure | ZQX0ZX MI | ZQX0ZX MI | -12,1% |
| Accumulated Damage | -ZQX0ZX MI | -ZQX0ZX MI | It's gotten worse. |
| Quotas. | 23.567.968 | 23.567.968 | No change |
Yes, net profit has grown 48%. But before we celebrate, we need to understand What is this profit, where it comes from, and why it doesn't get in your pocket.
The Great Paradox: Profit Up, Dividing Fall
This is the central point of the balance sheet and the one that most confuses those who follow the TGAR11. Profit went up 48%, but dividends fell from R$1,00/month to R$0,71-0,72. How is that possible?
The answer lies in three facts who, combined, explain everything:
Fact 1: The fund distributed a lot more than it earned
This is the most important data in the entire balance sheet. Look carefully:
The gap between profit and dividend
- In 2024: Profit of R$149,6 MI, but distributed R$315,4 MI. Payout of 211%. . You paid more than twice what you won.
- In 2025: Profit of R$221,5 MI, but distributed R$282,8 MI. Payout of 128%. . Still above 100%, but much better.
When a trust distributes more than it earns, the difference comes out of equity. It’s like spending more than your salary using your credit card — an hour the bill arrives.
The dividends of R$1,00/month that the fund paid in 2025 They were not sustainable.. . The fund was eating its own estate to maintain an attractive distribution. The reduction for R$0,71-0,72 was a correction required to approximate the distribution of reality.
Making the account: R$0,72/month, the fund distributes R$8,64/unit per year. With a profit of R$9,40/unit (R$221,5 MI / 23,57 MI units), the distribution finally approaches what the fund actually generates. The account starts to close.
Fact 2: Almost half of the revenue is accounting, not money in the account
Of the total revenue of R$254,9 MI, R$117,2 MI (46%) come from "result with equity". What's that? It is the accounting valuation of the shares that the fund has in development companies (SPEs). The projects advance, the works walk, the real estate value themselves — and the accounting recognizes this gain. But that money You didn't get into the bottom box.. . It's a paper gain.
That doesn't mean it's fake. The projects are really valuing themselves, and the money will eventually arrive when the units are sold and the receipts paid. But you can't distribute to the unit holders a profit that hasn't yet become a cashier.. . That's why the profit seems high while the dividend remains low.
| Revenue Composition 2025 | Value | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Equity (SPE) | ZQX0ZX MI | Accounting |
| CRIs (Certificates of Receipts) | ZQX0ZX MI | Box |
| Sale of Real Estate | ZQX0ZX MI | Box |
| Incoming Dividends | ZQX0ZX MI | Box |
| Shares of Real Estate Funds | ZQX0ZX MI | Box |
| SPE + Other | ZQX0ZX MI | Joint |
Fact 3: Cumulative damage is the scar of over-distribution years
"How can you profit if you have accumulated loss?" — that is the question that confuses the most. The answer is simple:
What is accumulated injury
The cumulative injury of -ZQX0ZX MI Doesn't mean the fund's going to any harm today. It means that over the years, he distributed more than profited. . The sum of all dividends paid exceeded the sum of all profits generated. It's a negative current account from the past that can't be solved overnight.
In 2023, the fund had positive accumulated profits from R$39 MI. In 2024, after the large emission of high units and distributions, it turned to -ZQX0ZX MI. In 2025, with another round of payment above profit (R$282 MI paid vs R$221 MI won), it went to -R$187 MI.
The good news is the gap is slowing down. If the fund maintains distributions in the range of R$0,72/month and the profit remains, the accumulated loss will stop growing. The bad news: the equity of the fund has already shrunk — the PL dropped from R$2,71 BI (2024) to R$2,65 BI (2025).
Cash Flow: Good News (with asterisk)
The operational cash flow turned from R$14 MI negative (2024) for R$419 MI positive (2025). An impressive turn of R$433 million.
But there is an important asterisk: part of this cash generation came from asset settlement. . The fund sold R$325 MI in Real Estate Receivable Certificates (CRIs), reducing the portfolio of R$368 MI to R$55 MI. This generated immediate cashier, but it is a movement that does not repeat itself — you can only sell these assets once.
Apart from this effect, the recurring cashier is more modest. The question is, where did this box go? The background used ZQX0ZX MI for new investments in ESS and ZQX0ZX MI to pay dividends. . In the end, the net cash variation was R$1,5 MI negative. . That is, the bottom has reached zero.
The Red Flags
1. Accumulated Harm Growing
The accumulated losses jumped from -ZQX0ZX MI (Dec/2024) for -ZQX0ZX MI (Dec/2025). Difference of R$61 MI. The fund paid R$282 MI in dividends but profited R$221 MI. The difference of R$61 MI came out of equity. The trend is to improve (in 2024 the gap was R$165 MI), but the hole continues to increase.
2. CRI Wallet 85% settlement
The portfolio of CRIs (Certificates of Real Estate Receivables) fell from R$368 MI for R$55 MI. . The fund sold these bonds massively. Possible readings: (a) took advantage of Selic alta to sell at good rates, generating cash; (b) needed the money to keep dividends and make new investments. Probably a combination. The problem: this liquidity mattress no longer exists.
3. Indecentness Upcoming
February/2026 management report data:
- Urbanism: 4,51% (stable but above average)
- Incorporation: 5,81% (worried, high trend)
- Multi-property: 7,24% (alarming, rising consistently)
With Selic a 14,75%, loans get more expensive and buyers have more difficulty honoring parcels. If the macro gets worse, those numbers could go up.
4. Accumulated Reserve Practically Zero
The accumulated reserve of the fund was only R$0,13 per unit at the end of February. There's no mattress. If a month gives a weak result, the dividend falls together. There is no room for negative surprises.
Management Report: February 2026
The management report brings more recent operational data that complement the balance sheet.
Dividend: R$0,72 (stable on the floor)
The February dividend was R$0,72, a penny above the R$0,71 of January. Monthly DY of 0,90% (on the unit of R$80 of Feb). About the current unit of ~R$70, the monthly DY rises to 1,03%.
The management maintains the R$0,70 to R$1,00 to 1S2026. Now we know why the dividend is on the floor: because that's what the fund can pay without continuing to eat the estate. The fall of R$1,00 to R$0,72 is not bad news in itself — it's the background trying to fix and align distribution with reality.
Sales: Signs of Improvement
| Segment | Units | VGV Sold | Highlight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urbanism | 282 | ZQX0ZX MI | Strong |
| Incorporation | 79 | ZQX0ZX MI | Best in 17 months |
| Cypasa/N. Colorado | 112 | ZQX0ZX MI | Stable |
| Multiproperty | 247 fractions | ZQX0ZX MI | Seasonal (vacancy) |
The most exciting piece of information: incorporation had the best month of sales in 17 months, with R$30 MI of VGV. This was driven by trade coordination and more aggressive marketing strategies, especially in the Jardim Roma enterprise. Sales are the bottom engine — the more it sells, the more cash comes in.
Portfolio: Operational Numbers
The portfolio has R$2,50 billions in receivables from already realised sales, plus R$4,80 billions in VGV stock and landbank. The assets exist, are built (94% works) and 73% sold. The question remains the cash conversion speed — with Selic to 14,75%, bank transfers are slow and buyers with difficulty in financing.
Quotas Coming Out
The fund lost investors: from 162,000 (mar/25) to 147 thousand (feb/26). The average daily liquidity was R$7,87 MI. Less unit holders + less liquidity = more sales pressure in the unit.
The Macro Scenery
- Seal to 14,75%: Real estate financing's stuck. CDI pays ~14,75% without risk. Property buyers face prohibitive costs.
- Cost inflation: Oil in high pressure construction and transport materials, compressing margins of the developing enterprises.
- Analytical boxes coming up: Some houses are removing TGAR11 from recommended wallets, which presses the unit.
- Electoral year 2026: Political uncertainty adds risk premium. If the right wins, it can be a turning catalyst with expectation of reforms and falling interest. But until then, it's uncertain.
And it is worth noting: at the last Copom meeting, Selic was reduced to 0,25 point, to 14,75%. The Central Bank signals the desire to control inflation and possibly reduce interest. However, with high oil and war on the international scene, it is difficult to imagine an accelerated fall of Selic. In our view, there may still be discharge before any sustained cutting cycle.
"The TGAR11 has real assets and growing profit, but it spends more than it earns to keep the unit holders satisfied. The account doesn't close — and the market knows it. The dividend cutting is the first step towards sustainability, but the path is long."
Summary: What Has Changed Since January
| Aspect | Status | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| Market share | It's gotten worse. | From ~R$78 (jan) to ~R$70 (abr) |
| Accounting profit | It's better. | +48% vs 2024 |
| Payout ratio | It's better. | From 211% (2024) to 128% (2025) |
| Operational flow | It's better. | From -R$14 MI to +R$419 MI* |
| Incorporating sales | It's better. | Best month in 17 months |
| Audit KPMG | Positive | Look clean, no exceptions |
| Dividing | It's down. | R$0,72 — but it's correction, not collapse |
| Cumulative damage | It's gotten worse. | From -ZQX0ZX MI to -ZQX1ZX MI |
| Failure to comply | It's gotten worse. | Incorp. 5,81%, Multi 7,24% |
| CRIs in the wallet | Liquidated | From R$368 MI to R$55 MI |
| Macro scenario | It's gotten worse. | Selic 14,75%, high oil |
| Quotators | Coming up. | From 162,000 to 147,000 |
* Operational flow includes effect of settlement of R$325 MI in CRIs, which is not repeated.
At What Price Does It Make Sense?
With the unit in the house of the R$70, the TGAR11 has already reached what was once our "ideal entry price". Let's redo the table based on audited balance sheet (VP R$110,16/unit) and dividend guidance (R$0,70-1,00):
| Input Price | Discount/VP | P/VP | DY Piso (R$0,72) | DY Top (R$1,00) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R$ 70 (current) | -36% | 0.64x | 12,3% | 17,1% |
| R$ 65 | -41% | 0.59x | 13,3% | 18,5% |
| R$ 60 | -45% | 0,55x | 14,4% | 20,0% |
| R$ 75 | -32% | 0.68x | 11,5% | 16,0% |
| R$ 80 | -27% | 0,73x | 10,8% | 15,0% |
But the DY on the Floor Compensates Risk?
The R$70, with dividing on the floor of R$0,72, the annualized DY is 12,3%. The CDI pays 15% without any risk. Well, then. the dividend alone does not justify the entry — the investor must believe that (a) the dividend will rise, or (b) the unit will recover, or both.
If the dividend rises to R$0,85-1,00 (higher half of the guide), the DY to R$70 goes to 14,6-17,1%, which becomes competitive with the CDI. If the unit also recovers to R$85-90 (still with 20% discount for VP), the total return can be expressive.
12 Month Return Simulation (entry to R$70)
| Scene | Div. Monthly | Quota in 12m | Total Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pessimistic | R$ 0,70 | R$ 60 | -2,3% |
| Base | R$ 0,82 | R$ 75 | +21,2% |
| Optimist | R$ 0,95 | R$ 90 | +44,9% |
The asymmetry is interesting: in the worst case scenario, the loss is limited (-2,3%). In the base case, the return already exceeds 20%. But remember: the pessimistic scenario assumes that the unit does not fall below R$60. If the macro gets worse, this floor could be pierced.
But the DY Alone Doesn't Justify
Here comes the part that hardly anyone says: even the R$70, the DY on the floor (12,3%) loses to the CDI the ~14,75%. . To accept all the risks of the TGAR11 — default rising, accumulated loss, units coming out, macro deteriorating — and yet earning less than the CDI, you need a strong thesis that the unit will rise.
And what would that be? Round turn. Fall of Selic, recovery of financing, acceleration of sales, standardization of the dividend. But when does that happen? Could be 2027, could be 2028. Meanwhile, your money yields less than the CDI on an asset that loses 10-15% per year in unit.
Our Price Map Updated
Our updated verdict
The TGAR11 is not what the swing looks like at first sight.
The profit of R$221 MI is real on paper, but almost half of it is accounted for revaluing SPE, not money in the account. The fund distributed more R$61 MI than it won, deepening a accumulated loss that already adds ZQX1ZX MI. And the liquidity mattress (CRIs) was sold.
At the same time, the reduction of the R$1,00 dividend to R$0,72 is a signal liabilityNot weakness. The fund is trying to align distribution with reality. The operational flow is better, the incorporation sales had the best month in 17 months, the assets are real and are built.
Our Opinion: Would you purchase TGAR11 from R$70 Today?
Oh, no. And let's explain the reasoning with the most important logic of all: the market is huge. TGAR11 needs to be better than alternatives — and today it is not.
The test that TGAR11 does not pass
The CDI pays ~14,75% per yearNo risk at all. Money in the account every month, no volatility, no headache. TGAR11 to R$70 with floor divider (R$0,72) pays 12,3%. Lose to CDI by 2,4 points. And this carrying all the risks: default rising, accumulated loss of R$187 MI, unit holders coming out, CRIs settled, reserve zero, macro adverse scenario.
To accept all these risks and earn less than the CDI, it takes a very strong thesis to value the unit. And today this thesis has no date to happen.
What matters: where the asset points
The question isn't "TGAR11 is cheap?" - it is, by the VP. The question is: Is the scenario pointing to an improvement? If the scenario is favorable, pointing to a key turn, then it pays to buy — no matter if the unit has already gone up from R$70 to R$80. What matters is that if we're buying by R$80, it goes to R$90. It matters where you're pointing, not where you came from.
And today the TGAR11 doesn't point up. Selic may even fall eventually — the Central Bank signaled a fall of 0,25 at the last meeting — but with oil in high and international war, the trend is high interest for longer. Without Selic falling, there's no speeding up funding, no speeding up sales, no improvement in the dividend.
If only we had R$10 thousand to invest today
What would we do?
- CDI/Selic Treasure: ~14,75% guaranteed, daily liquidity, no risk. Let the money go while the scenery clears.
- Brick FIIs with healthy payout: If you wanted FII, look at logistics funds or urban income with payout below 100%, without accumulated damage, with DY above the CDI.
- TGAR11 only if: the unit drops to R$60-62 (discount of 45%, DY on the floor of 14,4% — there competes with CDI) OU if Selic signals a consistent drop.
Isn't the right question "TGAR11 cheap?" The right question is: "Why would I put my money here instead of the CDI to 14,75% while I wait?" And for that question, we don't have a good answer today.
Final Summary
TGAR11 to R$70 is cheap by VP, but cheap is not the same thing as good investment. . The fundamentals are improving (profit +48%, payout decreasing, sales accelerating), and dividend cutting is a healthy correction sign. But without short-term catalyst and with CDI paying 14,75%, the best strategy is wait and observe.
When does it change? When the scenario points to improvement — Sustained Selic fall, dividing consistently up to R$0,85+, or favorable political signaling in the elections. That's right, even if the unit's already up, it's worth getting in. Until then, CDI is the best friend of the patient investor.
Signs That Would Change Our Opinion
To Top (it would be more optimistic if...)
- Dividing up to R$0,85+ for 2-3 consecutive months
- Payout ratio drop below 100% (distribute less than profit)
- Selic start falling (bank transfer trigger and financing)
- Failure to stabilise or fall
- Pro-market candidate lead electoral research
Down (it would be more pessimistic if...)
- Dividing drop below R$0,70 (below the guide)
- Failure to overcome 8% in any segment
- More forced settlement of assets to pay dividend
- Selic climb above 16%
- Accelerated exit of unit holders (below 140 thousand)
- Cumulative damage exceeding R$250 MI
Complete TGAR11 Dossier
This article is part of a series of analyses on TGAR11:
- I bought TGAR11 from R$80: Trick or Trap? (28/jan)
- R$375 Millions Evaporated: The Manager Explains (29/jan)
- Dividing R$0,71 Changes Everything. What to Do? (31/jan)
- Balance 2025: Profit Up, Dividing Falled. Why? (this article - 02/abr)
