♪ The blow inside the blow ♪
The unit had already melted from R$93 to R$80 after the guidance is reviewed. The fund manager made a live explaining everything, the market eased for R$82. Then came the January dividend: R$0,71. . The lower band of the guidance. Just in the first month. The unit fell to R$78,20.
This is not an article to speculate about the future. This is an article for Make decisions now. . If you have TGAR11 in your wallet, you need to decide: hold, reduce, zero or even increase. If you don't have it, you have to decide to go in, wait, or ignore it.
Let's cut to the chase.
1. Why Did R$0,71 (E No R$0,90)?
The expectation was of gradual fall (R$0,90 → R$0,85 → R$0,80...). R$0,71 came in the first month. Three hypotheses:
Chances for R$0,71
The background really did just R$0,71 box in January. The bank transfers have stopped more than expected. Sales have slowed down. Viel didn't close. The scenario is worse than the fund manager imagined on live.
The result was close to R$0,85-0,90, but the fund manager decided to distribute only R$0,71 and create a reserve of ~R$0,15-0,19 per unit. Precautionary strategy for the next few months, if the scenario gets worse.
The fund manager preferred to start in the lower band to increase gradually throughout the semester, as the transfers come and the scenario improves. It is psychologically better to climb from R$0,71 to R$0,85 than to fall from R$0,90 to R$0,75.
Most likely: Hypothesis 2. The fund was doing R$1,00/month. Hardly fell to R$0,71 at once. He's probably making a reservation so he doesn't have to review the guidelines again. But we're not sure — and that uncertainty is the problem. The unit does not know whether to specify R$0,71 or R$0,85.
2. Multiple Variables (Not Just Selic)
Recovery doesn't just depend on Selic. As explained in the fund manager's liveThere are five key variables:
- Selic: Even falling in March, effect only in 6-9 months (2nd without/2026 or 2027)
- Viel (ZQX0ZX mi): If sold close, R$3,50/gain unit + unlock box
- Elections 2026: Change of government can speed up recovery
- Bank transfers: ZQX0ZX mi locked, time tripled (9-12 months)
- American bubble: If it bursts, global contagion makes it worse.
♪ The Problem ♪
TGAR11 does not depend on one It's going to work. Depends on several Don't go wrong at the same time.
3. Revised Valuation (Calculus Brutal)
Let's do the account no one wants to do: how much is TGAR11 worth if you keep distributing R$0,71/month?
The Brazilian IFI market is priced by dividend yeld. . The average of development FIIs oscillates between 0,90% to 1,10% per month, depending on the risk and liquidity.
| Dividend scenario | Dividing Monthly | Yield Waited | Fair Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current Dividend (R$0,71) | R$0,71 | 1,00% | R$71 |
| Partial Recovery (R$0,85) | R$0,85 | 1,00% | R$85 |
| Standardisation (R$1,00) | R$1,00 | 1,00% | R$100 |
| Optimistic scenario (R$1,10) | R$1,10 | 1,00% | R$110 |
Interpretation:
- If TGAR11 keeps distributing R$0,71/month For the next 12 months, the fair price is R$71
- Recover to R$0,85/month In 6 months, the fair price goes to R$85
- If you go back to R$1,00/month, the unit can hit R$100
What about the R$78,20?
With R$0,71, dividend, yield is 0,91% per month (10,9% per year). That's it. slightly below than the market usually pays for development FIIs.
In other words: The market is pricing that the dividend will stay between R$0,71 and R$0,80 for the coming months, but with some chance of recovery in the second semester.
4. Scenarios with Real Timeline
Now let's get to the set. I won't promise anything. I'm just gonna map the possibilities and assign the odds.
Scenario 1: Worse Case (Probability: 25%)
- Selic does not fall or fall too slowly (it is above 13%)
- Today's government is reelected, reforms are not moving forward
- Sale of Viel does not close
- Bank transfers are still slow
- Dividing stays in R$0,70-0,75/month
Quota oscillates between R$70-75 for 18-24 months. Recovery only in 2027-2028. Total return (dividends + valuation): +5% to +10% per year.
If you can't handle the R$70-75 unit for 18-24 months, shouldn't be on TGAR11. . Better leave now the R$78 and go to FII Brick or Treasure IPCA+.
Scenario 2: Base Case (Probability: 50%)
- Selic starts to fall in March, reaches 12-13% by the end of 2026
- Bank transfers start to normalize in the second semester
- Viel may or may not close (50/50)
- Dividend climbs gradually: R$0,75 → R$0,80 → R$0,85
Quota oscillates between R$75-85 for 2026. If you reach R$0,85/month by the end of the year, the unit closes 2026 at R$85-88. . Total return: +18% to +22% (considering dividends).
This is the most likely scenario. If you believe him, it makes sense. hold the position and even increase in falls to R$75 or below. Return of 18-22% per year is excellent for an FII.
Scenario 3: Best Case (Probability: 25%)
- Selic falls strong (comes to 11-12% by the end of the year)
- Sale of Viel closes (R$300 mi unlocked)
- Favorable change of government in elections (confidence rises)
- Bank transfers speed up strong
- Dividing back to R$0,95-1,00/month still in 2026
Quota shoots to R$95-100 in the second semester of 2026. Total return: +35% to +40% (considering dividends).
If you believe in this scenario, You should be buying aggressively. anything below R$80. But remember, it's the scenario of lower probability.
5. Practical Strategies - What to Do Now
No more theory. Let's go to the strategies for those who are in position and for those who are out.
A) For those with a position
Strategy 1: HOLD
Description: Hold the position, ignore the volatility, focus on dividends and expect recovery in 9-18 months.
- Don't miss the recovery timing
- Keeps getting dividends
- It does not cause injury
- More may fall (R$75, R$70)
- Money spent for months
- Emotional stress
For whom: Patient Investor, horizon 18+ months, believes in the thesis, position not very large.
Strategy 2: SALE AND RECOMMEND (Trading)
Description: Sell the current position to R$78-79, expect a fall to R$70-72 and buy back with more units.
- If it works, it wins 10-15% in units
- Reduces average price
- You may be lucky in the timing.
- What if it doesn't fall to R$70?
- Lose dividends in the middle
- Pays IR on gain (if you have)
- Risk of staying out
For whom: Experienced trader, manages to control emotion, accepts the risk of losing the train. NOT recommended for beginners.
Strategy 3: REDUCING EXPOSURE
Description: Sell 30-50% from position to R$78-80, use money to diversify (FII brick, CRI, Treasury).
- Reduces risk without leaving fully
- Maintains exposure to recovery
- Diversifies into more stable assets
- It carries out partial injury
- You make less in recovery.
- You might regret it if you come up.
For whom: Very large position (>15% of wallet), can't take any more volatility, wants to sleep quietly.
Strategy 4: ZERAR EVERYTHING
Description: Sell 100% from position and migrate to more predictable assets (FII brick, Treasury IPCA+, CRI).
- Eliminates stress
- Releases capital for other opportunities
- More predictable income
- Total injury
- Lose all recovery
- You may regret it in 2027.
For whom: You can't take more volatility, you need stable income, you don't trust management anymore, or you just don't understand the product and you bought it by indication.
B) For those who have no position
If you're out and want to get in, the entry points are:
Entry Points
. Intelligent Input Strategy
Don't buy it all at once. Fracionepurchasing 33% to R$78, 33% to R$75, 34% to R$70 (if you arrive). So you guarantee good average price without risking everything at a single point.
C) Signals to Monitor
If you're going to hold or buy, you need to monitor these signs:
- Dividend of February (end of February): If it comes R$0,75-0,80, it's a recovery signal. If R$0,71 comes again, bigger problem.
- March management report + webcast (early March): Manager promised monthly webcast. There he'll explain what happened in January.
- News about Viel: If the sale closes, it's a strong trigger for appreciation.
- Decision of Selic (March, May): If it starts to fall, it's positive for the medium term.
- Election surveys (second half): They indicate the possibility of a change of government.
6. TGAR11 vs. Alternatives (Brutal Comparison)
Is it worth holding TGAR11 to R$0,71/month? Or is it better to migrate to other options?
| Active | Monthly Income | Annual Yield | Volatility | Perspective |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TGAR11 (R$78) | R$0,71 | 10,9% | High | Recovery in 9-18m |
| FII Brick (average) | ~0,85% | 10,2% | Medium | Stable |
| CRI (CDI+2%) | ~1,2% | 15%+ | Low | Profitability guaranteed |
| IPCA+ 2035 Treasury | IPCA+6,5% | ~11-12% | Low | No credit risk |
So is it worth more CRI or Treasure?
In the short term (6-12 months), yes. CRI paying CDI+2% yields ~15% per year with very low risk. TGAR11 can yield 10-11% with dividends + some valuation, but with much more volatility.
In the medium term (18+ months), not necessarily. If the TGAR11 recovers to R$0,90-1,00 and the unit rises to R$90-95, the total return may be 25-35%, much higher than CRI or Treasury.
Conclusion: If you need stable income and can't handle volatility, CRI and Treasury are better. If you accept risk and have patience, TGAR11 has superior return potential.
7. Does Thesis Still Make Sense?
What's changed: Timing worsened (12-18 months), dividend fell 29%, uncertainty increased.
WHAT HAS NOT CHANGED: R$2,5 bi in assets, 72% already performed, foundation intact.
Makes sense if: Horizon 18+ months, accepts volatility, position <10-15% da carteira.
DOESN'T make sense if: You need steady income, you can't stand falling 20-30%, position >20%.
8. Conclusion - My Position (And A Mistake)
I still believe in TGAR11. But I have to be honest: I was wrong about the dividend.
Total Transparency: What I Did
I bought the R$80 (previous article) waiting to divide from R$0,85-0,90. R$0,71. Came I was wrong. And I made a tough decision: sold the R$79 (lost R$1 + brokerage).
Why did I sell it? The market priced FIIs per dividend yield (~1% per month). If the dividend stays in R$0,71, the unit tends to R$71. If February comes R$0,71 again, the price will pick up this level. I'd rather leave the R$79 and try to buy the ZQX1ZX-72 than hold a fall until R$71.
IMPORTANT: If you bought R$80 and you're holding it, You're NOT Wrong. . The thesis is still valid, the assets are there, the money will arrive. You just need to have more patience (18-24 months instead of 12). My trade is a risky gamble that It can go very wrong.
- R$75: I'll try to buy it back.
- R$70: Increase position
- R$65-67: Buy Stronger
Risks of my trade: If you don't fall to R$75 and return to R$82-85 (for example, if February comes R$0,85), I missed the train. I sold it at loss and stayed out of recovery. It's a risky personal decision, not a recommendation.
Final Recommendation
If you are R$80: The thesis is still valid. You can hold (18-24 months), reduce exposure (30-50%) or trade (risked). There's no right answer. Depends on your profile and position size.
If you don't have: R$75 (good entry) R$70-72 (excellent) R$65-67 (very cheap)
♪ What would make me leave ♪
R$0,71 for 3 months in a row < R$62
