Exposure Portfolio: the Rico aos Poucos recommended portfolio
The Exposure Portfolio is our recommended portfolio, built by asset class: how much goes to cash (CDI), US dollar, Brazilian REITs (FIIs), the Ibovespa, fixed income and others. It is a model portfolio and does not point to specific assets: “Ibovespa” is the index and “FIIs” the IFIX. We show where to invest, not what to buy.
One person decides this portfolio: the founder of Rico aos Poucos follows the scenario and sets the weight of each class. It is not an automated formula — and every change is recorded, with date and reason.
A history that cannot be tampered withEvery change is written to a public record, hash-chained and timestamped on Bitcoin. Nobody — not even us — can alter the past. Created 2026-10-26; earlier entries are marked as reconstructed.Check the record →Channel opinions, not investment recommendations. Medium-term view (1–2 years) subject to change.
Recommended Exposure
Portfolio Performance
Had you followed the portfolio since Jan/2026, rebalancing each timeChange History
🔒 Every change below is written to a public, tamper-proof record timestamped on Bitcoin — check it yourself.
Treasury IPCA+ sold: from 5% to 0%, cash rises to 35%
A one-off adjustment, with the rest of the portfolio untouched. Treasury IPCA+ drops from 5% to 0% and turns Bearish: the position was the Renda+ 2065, the longest bond and the one most exposed to mark-to-market swings. The rate opened the Oct 26 session near IPCA+ 7.4% and closed near 6.75%, below what fiscal risk and the long horizon justify, and we see no good outlook in either the short or the long term. Cash rises from 30% to 35%, with the 5 points from the sale. Effective Oct 26: the sale is counted at that day's close, at IPCA+ 6.75%. This changes what we said in our previous article, in which we would make no adjustments.
Profit taking: cash rises to 30% and TLT to 15%
Defensive rebalancing, no change in underlying thesis. FIIs drop from 20% to 10% and return to Neutral: the funds had a nice price rally and are no longer bargains — they are not expensive, but have returned close to their previous level, and such a large allocation in the class is no longer justified. IBOV drops from 10% to 5%: it went up too much and is no longer cheap, so we take some profit. Auction real estate drops from 20% to 10%: the thesis hasn't worsened, but buying well has become harder — people are bidding higher amounts and the second auction isn't coming as cheap. Those doing auctions today tend to make 10% to 20% in a year, compared to 30% to 60% before, and with the bureaucracy this almost ties with the CDI of around 13% per year. It remains an excellent opportunity when it appears, but it appears less often. Cash rises from 10% to 30%: it receives the 10 points from FIIs and 10 from real estate, and gains strength with the October 25 election, whose outcome is still uncertain. TLT rises from 10% to 15% and turns Bullish: US interest rates are at the highest levels in recent history, it is still possible to ride the long Treasury appreciation and, to boot, it increases exposure to the USD, which remains cheap (both direct TLT and BTLT39 apply). USD stays at 25%: we remain bullish, just less than before; it would only make sense to reduce near R$ 5,40, and only to enter something with a better perspective.
FIIs upgraded to Bullish (20%) and cash cut to 10%
The turn that started on 14 Aug is now complete: Brazilian REITs (FIIs) move from Neutral to Bullish and from 15% to 20%, funded by cash, which falls from 15% to 10%. The thesis is about price, not the economic cycle — Brazil's economy is weak and this is an election year, but 68% of listed funds trade below 0.90x book value (median 0.83x) and the median yield of the class is 12.6% a year. On our own numbers, 202 of the 231 funds with a calculated fair value (87%) trade below it. Buying a large discount on an asset that pays rent every month does not require calling the election right: it requires the market to look at the class again once the noise clears. Cash is still good on its own merits — the Selic at 14% pays well — but holding it while units are cheap became an opportunity cost.
Fine-tuning: FIIs up, real estate to Neutral and Ibovespa out of Bearish
Calibration without a change of thesis. FIIs go from 10% to 15%: units remain discounted with high rates and we started turning. Real estate falls from 25% to 20% and moves from Bullish to Neutral — buying at auction is still very attractive, but the appreciation of the property itself is uninspiring in the short and medium term. Ibovespa moves from Bearish to Neutral: high rates still weigh on multiples, but the risk premium already prices much of that in and there are individual stocks with a very good case inside the index. Gold goes from Neutral to Bearish — after the recent run, the entry risk is asymmetric against you. Weight stays at 0%.
Macro rebalancing: FIIs downgraded to Neutral, more USD and real-asset protection
With Brazil's macro deteriorating (rising debt/GDP, long-term interest rates under pressure with no turnaround in sight without a change of government), we reduced Brazil-dependent risk and reinforced direct wealth protection. FIIs fall from Bullish to Neutral (20% → 10%): they keep generating income, but assets that depend on Brazil unlocking value tend to drift sideways or down in this environment. In return, USD rises to 25% (strong currency, ~R$ 5 vs. the R$ 6.20 peak, removes Brazil risk), Real Estate auctions rise to 25% (physical asset, no manager, rising rents, purchase discount) and IPCA+ Treasury falls to 5% (attractive rate, but if deterioration continues rates will rise further, marking the bond down). Cash (CDI) stays at 15% as dry powder yielding 14.5% to capture dips. Read the full article with the thesis for each sector.
Adjustment: USD to Bullish, Ibovespa to Bearish
USD at R$ 5.18 — entry point. Ibovespa with stretched valuations after a 34% rally. Reduced from 15% to 10% in IBOV, increased to 20% in USD.
Rebalancing: Gold as Barometer
FIIs 20%, USD 15%, Real Estate 15%, Ibovespa 15%, Cash 15%, TLT 10%, IPCA+ 10%. FIIs moved to Bullish.
Real Estate moves to Bullish
Auctions grew 86% in 2024. Unique opportunity with discounts of up to 60%. Read the full article.
New Rebalancing + Real Estate
USD 25%, Cash 20%, TLT 15%, Real Estate 15%, FIIs 10%, IPCA+ 10%, IBOV 5%.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Cash 25%, USD 25%, TLT 20%, FIIs 15%, IPCA+ 10%, IBOV 5%.
Bitcoin moves to Bearish
End of cycle, Strategy risk, exposure zeroed out.
Gold moves to Neutral
Stretched prices, waiting for a correction before entry.
TLT moves to Bullish
Historically low prices, limited downside, protective asset.
IPCA+ moves to Neutral
High rates but real fiscal risk. Mark-to-market can be negative.
App Launch
First version of the channel outlook.
We also have FII and stock portfolios
The Exposure Portfolio says how much to hold in each class, and the site's founder decides it. The FII and stock portfolios say which assets — and they work differently: nobody picks the assets by hand. They are built automatically from the analysis that the Rico aos Poucos AI makes of each FII and each stock covered on the site.