Channel opinions, not investment recommendations. Medium-term view (1–2 years) subject to change.
Recommended Exposure
Portfolio Performance
If you had followed the portfolio since Jan/2026What would a R$ 100,000 portfolio built in Jan/2026 following the channel's allocation be worth today — considering price return of indices + yield (dividends/interest) for each asset class, and incorporating rebalancings. This is the objective way to measure, over the years, whether the macro thesis is correct.
So far there has been a single move (Jan → May). The result was driven by Ibovespa (+11.4%) and Cash (+5.6%); TLT (−1.7%) was the only negative and the USD barely moved (+0.2%) — the 7% p.a. carry nearly offset the FX decline. With each new rebalancing (every few months), this number evolves and measures the macro thesis over the long run.
Methodology: R$ 100,000 in the Jan/2026 allocation, return per class = index return + yield: USD USD/BRL + 7% p.a. (stablecoin); TLT in BRL + 3.5% p.a.; Real Estate FipeZap + 4.5% p.a. (rent); FIIs IFIX (already includes distributions); Ibovespa total return (with dividends); Cash CDI; IPCA+ IMA-B. Approximate values, updated May 29, 2026. Does not include costs/taxes. Not an investment recommendation.
Change History
Macro rebalancing: FIIs downgraded to Neutral, more USD and real-asset protection
With Brazil's macro deteriorating (rising debt/GDP, long-term interest rates under pressure with no turnaround in sight without a change of government), we reduced Brazil-dependent risk and reinforced direct wealth protection. FIIs fall from Bullish to Neutral (20% → 10%): they keep generating income, but assets that depend on Brazil unlocking value tend to drift sideways or down in this environment. In return, USD rises to 25% (strong currency, ~R$ 5 vs. the R$ 6.20 peak, removes Brazil risk), Real Estate auctions rise to 25% (physical asset, no manager, rising rents, purchase discount) and IPCA+ Treasury falls to 5% (attractive rate, but if deterioration continues rates will rise further, marking the bond down). Cash (CDI) stays at 15% as dry powder yielding 14.5% to capture dips. Read the full article with the thesis for each sector.
Adjustment: USD to Bullish, Ibovespa to Bearish
USD at R$ 5.18 — entry point. Ibovespa with stretched valuations after a 34% rally. Reduced from 15% to 10% in IBOV, increased to 20% in USD.
Rebalancing: Gold as Barometer
FIIs 20%, USD 15%, Real Estate 15%, Ibovespa 15%, Cash 15%, TLT 10%, IPCA+ 10%. FIIs moved to Bullish.
Real Estate moves to Bullish
Auctions grew 86% in 2024. Unique opportunity with discounts of up to 60%. Read the full article.
New Rebalancing + Real Estate
USD 25%, Cash 20%, TLT 15%, Real Estate 15%, FIIs 10%, IPCA+ 10%, IBOV 5%.
Portfolio Rebalancing
Cash 25%, USD 25%, TLT 20%, FIIs 15%, IPCA+ 10%, IBOV 5%.
Bitcoin moves to Bearish
End of cycle, Strategy risk, exposure zeroed out.
Gold moves to Neutral
Stretched prices, waiting for a correction before entry.
TLT moves to Bullish
Historically low prices, limited downside, protective asset.
IPCA+ moves to Neutral
High rates but real fiscal risk. Mark-to-market can be negative.
App Launch
First version of the channel outlook.