End of the Bull Cycle
Bitcoin hit a high of $126k in Oct/2025 and has already dropped 30%. Historical pattern points to 65-80% corrections.
Bearish
Medium Term (1-2 years)
Bitcoin
End of the bull cycle, historical correction pattern and elevated systemic risks.
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Bitcoin in US dollars — history since 2017 ·
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Line: daily closeRange: day's low and high Drag over the chart to measure a period's change
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What the channel thinks
Bearish — 0% of the portfolio
It is not yet time to buy. The best period tends to be from late 2026 to mid-2027 — the bottom of the bottom usually comes before a long sideways trend. Until then, no rush: we would only allocate $30-40k. Buying now, on a 2-year horizon, is just locking in losses.
Strategy Risk (MSTR)
Largest corporate holder with $8.2B in debt and 671k BTC. Real systemic risk in case of a sharp drop.
Correlation with Stocks
Bitcoin tends to follow US stocks. It does not work as protection in crises — it falls along with risk assets.
What Bitcoin is
Bitcoin is a decentralized digital asset: it relies on no government or central bank. Supply is capped at 21 million units and its price fluctuates intensely based on demand and risk appetite.
Supply capped at 21 millionHalving every 4 yearsVolatile: drops of 70% or more have already happened
Understand from scratch →How to get exposure
Direct BitcoinCryptocurrency
BITH11Brazil ETF
IBITUS ETF (BlackRock)
FBTCUS ETF (Fidelity)
This analysis reflects the channel's opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Bitcoin has extreme volatility.