ALPA4 Hits Record EBITDA and Turns the Corner Abroad — How Did Alpargatas Pull Off This Historic Turnaround? Relevance6,0
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ALPA4 Hits Record EBITDA and Turns the Corner Abroad — How Did Alpargatas Pull Off This Historic Turnaround?

Revenue grows 11% on higher pair sales, while leverage drops to 0.3x and ROIC reaches 18.9% for the quarter.

Alpargatas submitted its third-quarter 2026 results to Brazil's securities regulator, the CVM, on November 6, 2026. Revenue rose 11%, EBITDA advanced by the same proportion, and—most importantly for the investment thesis—Havaianas's international operations posted positive EBITDA for the first time in four years. It is a strong result, arriving at a time when the market had already priced in much of this recovery.

What Happened to ALPA4 Stock in Q3 2026?

ALPA4 represents preferred stock in Alpargatas S.A., the owner of the Havaianas brand. In the third quarter of 2026, the company reported net revenue of R$ 1.24 billion, an 11% increase over Q3 2025, and adjusted EBITDA of R$ 283.5 million, with a 22.9% margin. Net income reached R$ 175.5 million, up 2% from R$ 171.3 million in the same period last year. A full comparison with the third quarter of 2025 is provided below.

Indicator Q3 2026 Q3 2025 Change
Net Revenue R$ 1.24 billion R$ 1.12 billion +11%
Adjusted EBITDA R$ 284 million R$ 256 million +11%
EBITDA Margin 22.9% 22.9% stable
Gross Profit R$ 653 million R$ 586 million +11%
Gross Margin 52.7% 52.5% +0.2 p.p.
Net Income R$ 175.5 million R$ 171.3 million +2%

One note before proceeding: investors looking for ALPA4 who cannot find it on their broker's trading platform may be viewing ALPA3, the common stock class. These are two different share classes of the same company—ALPA4 is preferred stock and continues to trade normally on the B3.

Brazil Hits Highest EBITDA in Historical Series—with a Caveat on Margins

In the domestic market, Alpargatas sold 55 million pairs during the quarter, up 7% from Q3 2025, with sell-out growth of 8%. The food retail channel—one of the brand's most competitive segments—gained 2.7 percentage points of market share over the period. Brazil's operational result reached R$ 267 million, the highest in the company's historical series for any quarter, according to the filing submitted to the CVM. Net revenue in the domestic operation grew 13% year-over-year.

However, Brazil's EBITDA margin stood at 27%, slipping 2.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2025. The company explains this by pointing to higher marketing investments (aligned with the brand's annual calendar), increased distribution expenses, and the impact of the payroll tax reinstatement. These cost increases were expected and disclosed rather than unexpected surprises, but they bear monitoring because they could pressure margins in coming quarters if revenue growth slows. Notably, in September, the stock fell in a separate session while the broader market rose, with no specific catalyst on that day—a sign that the market was alert to any hint of deterioration. This quarter shows no deterioration, but costs are rising.

International Operations Turn Positive for the First Time in Four Years

This is the quarter's most significant shift. Havaianas's international operations generated EBITDA of R$ 16.6 million in Q3 2026, compared to a negative result of R$ 5.8 million in Q3 2025. International net revenue reached R$ 236 million, supported by a 15% increase in pair sales volume (5.6 million in the quarter). The filing attributes the result to the new business model in the United States and positive performance in Europe and distributor markets.

International EBITDA positive for the first time in four years.Alpargatas S.A., Q3 2026 earnings, submitted to the CVM on Jun 11, 2026

This directly alters the investment thesis: previously, domestic growth supported consolidated results while international operations consumed cash. With international turning positive—even by a modest margin of R$ 16.6 million—Alpargatas now has two growth vectors firing simultaneously for the first time since at least 2022. The third quarter carries specific seasonality for the brand, with lower volumes than the fourth quarter, making the result even more meaningful: overseas operations finished in the black despite a quarter that is typically less favorable for selling sandals in Europe and the U.S.

Cash generation for the quarter totaled R$ 151 million, reducing leverage to 0.3x net debt-to-EBITDA over the last 12 months (R$ 353 million in net debt). ROIC reached 18.9% on an LTM basis in Q3 2026, up 8.8 percentage points from the same period last year—data showing that invested capital is generating accelerating returns. As a result, the company has ample headroom to invest, whether in CAPEX (R$ 65 million in the quarter, within the R$ 243 million annual budget) or in Rothy's.

Rothy's: Revenue Growth, but Still in the Red

American brand Rothy's—in which Alpargatas holds a 48.8% stake—posted net revenue of $51 million in Q3 2026, up 12% over Q3 2025. EBITDA, however, was negative at $2.2 million. While not a hemorrhage, it does not contribute to consolidated results either. The filing mentions working capital consumption of R$ 39 million during the quarter, partly related to rising receivables in the United States and Europe, with no material changes to commercial policies with clients or suppliers. The question left unanswered by the filing is how quickly Rothy's EBITDA will reach breakeven—and how much cash will be required until it does. It remains the only unaddressed risk vector in the consolidated figures.

In the broader context of quarterly results released by other issuers this week—such as Sabesp's Q3 2026 results and Localiza's Q3 report—Alpargatas stands out for combining operational growth with deleveraging. While many reporting companies contended with rising debt this cycle, Alpargatas reduced leverage and generated R$ 433 million in cash over the last 12 months.

What This Means for ALPA4 Unitholders

What this means for shareholders

The operational turnaround thesis was confirmed this quarter: Brazil at record historical EBITDA, international operations in positive territory, low leverage, and accelerating ROIC. The issue is that the market had already anticipated much of this. According to Citi analysts, Alpargatas's turnaround has worked—but the market appears to have priced in a substantial portion of this improvement following a rally exceeding 100% over 12 months. Meanwhile, Bank of America and UBS maintain buy ratings with a R$ 16 price target, viewing current multiples as compatible with an accelerated growth phase. Our valuation estimates fair value at R$ 9.54, calculated using a share price of R$ 14.25 as of September 30, 2026, carrying an "avoid" verdict—Q3 2026 results are positive and reinforce the fundamentals, but they do not eliminate the premium the market is already demanding. For investors who bought prior to the rally, the results reinforce the thesis; for those considering entering now, the debate centers on how much of these improvements is already priced in.

1

Brazil EBITDA Margin — Watch whether higher marketing and distribution spending continues to grow in upcoming quarters; a second contraction below 25% would signal structural cost pressure rather than seasonality.

2

International Operations in Q4 2026 — Q4 is seasonally the most important period for Havaianas; confirm whether operations maintain positive EBITDA on higher volumes, which would solidify the turnaround as structural rather than temporary.

3

Rothy's Break-Even Timeline — Monitor when the brand's EBITDA turns positive and how much working capital Alpargatas will need to inject until then; the filing provided no timeline or guidance.

4

Earnings Conference Call — Alpargatas scheduled its conference call for November 9, 2026 (Monday) at 9:00 a.m. BRT, when management is expected to detail CAPEX guidance and provide more color on the new U.S. model and working capital trends.