. Direct notice
This is a background of low liquidity (~200k/day) with problematic history. Just consider if you understand the risks and accept a Maximum 5% allocation from the wallet.
The History: A Disaster
Let's be direct: the fund manager of the BLMG11 made a Bad job. So far. The unitholder who went into the fund lost money. There's no way to brown the pill.
The fund manager went into positions at the wrong time, with bad market timing.
The price of the unit fell and many went to the loss.
Last decisions were to minimize damage and restructure the fund.
The Current Situation
Today the BLMG11 is basically composed of:
- Quotas of GGRC11 — large and stable logistics fund
- Property leased to Kalunga — recent acquisition
The background is in transition. . The fund manager's idea is to sell GGRC11 units in the coming months and relocate to other assets, changing from "logistics" to "multistrategy".
The 3 Possible Scenes
The future of BLMG11 depends exclusively the next decisions of the fund manager. There's no middle ground here:
? Manager Hits
Sells GGRC11 well, allocates on performing assets, dividends go up. Quota can go to R$40-45.
? Manager Does Nothing
Maintains position at GGRC11, background stands still. Quota rises slowly to ~R$36.
?Wrong Manager Again
You do bad assignments, wrong timing again. Cota may fall or lateralize for years.
Why Consider It Even So?
If the history is bad, why the hell look at that background? A few points:
- Very discounted price — the market has already reduced the risk of the fund manager
- Last decisions were good. — minimised damage, stabilised
- Current base is solid — GGRC11 is a stable fund
- 1,2% DY per month — while you wait, you receive
- Upside if fund manager hits — favourable asymmetry
Price Tracks
| Classification | Price Range | Action |
|---|---|---|
| ? Cheap | Below R$ 30 | Clear opportunity |
| ♪ Good | R$ 30 - R$ 34 | Fair entry price |
| ? Expensive | Above R$ 37 | Avoid/make profit |
Conclusion: A Bet on Manager
BLMG11 is a recovery bet. . You're betting that the fund manager learned from the mistakes and will make better moves from now on.
♪ Rules to enter ♪
- Maximum portfolio 5% — is a small and risky fund
- Low liquidity - you won't be able to get out fast if you need to
- Follow the fund manager - If he fucks up again, leave
- It's not for beginners — only if the risk is understood
If the fund manager is competent in the next moves, the BLMG11 may be a excellent opportunity at discounted prices.
If he screws up again, Leave the bottom and never look back.
For now, let's give it a letter of confidence and observe the next few months.
