What the relevant fact says — and what it does not say

The text signed by BTG Current Financial Services S.A. DTVM (administrator, CNPJ 59.281.253/0001-23) and BTG Actual Resource Manager Ltda. (fund manager, CNPJ 09.631.542/0001-37) is short and has three hard information:

1. The lessee is in the financial sector and notified the partial vacancy of the areas of the 7th floor – Block B and 8th floor – Block B. . The name was not disclosed, as is practice in FII for contractual reasons.
2. The fund manager will follow the vacancy schedule and operational and financial reflections — no start date and no effective exit date.
3. The estimated impact is ~22% on contracted revenue from the bottom. This number is what matters most to the unit holder, because it was the fund manager herself who signed the estimate.

The document also states that the commercial team follows "working actively" the prospecting of new tenants and that "the vacant areas of the complex remain the target of visits by potential stakeholders". . It is exactly the same phrase that appears in previous communications from the background — the absorption thesis of vague areas exists in the discourse, but the vacancy curve of recent years says the opposite: CENESP continues to empty faster than it replaces.

Where this hits the CNES11 balance sheet

It is worth separating two concepts that are often confused. A 59,4% vacancy It's a measure of busy area (ABL): Today, 40,6% from the FII ABL (which totals 64.480 m2) is rented. O revenue impact of 22%, announced now, is a different measure: it refers to how much of this financial flow hired the tenant of the financier delivered. You can't add 59,4% + 22% and say that the vacancy goes to 81% — arithmetic is another. But you can say two things:

• A vacancy in m2 It will rise when the two floors are effectively unoccupied. The size of the jump depends on the footage of these floors, which the relevant fact did not publish.
• O box that was still left to distribute to the unit holders it will shrink proportionally to the -22% of the contracted revenue — as soon as the vacancy has financial effect. In a fund that has already distributed R$ 0,09 throughout 2025, maintaining a minimally positive level in the DPS requires the commercial team to replace at least one part of this area before the current tenant leaves.

Why this output weighs more than a common turnover

In a healthy office, one lessee leaves and another enters is part of the life of the bottom. No CNES11, the framework is different for three reasons that are reinforced:

1. Monoactive in old complex off premium axes. The background is 100% concentrated in a single address — the Av. Maria Coelho de Aguiar, 215, in the southern part of São Paulo, in a complex inaugurated in 1977. . The corporate demand for premium slabs in São Paulo focuses on Faria Lima, Vila Olímpia and Chucri Zaidan. CENESP carries LEED V4.1 O+M Gold (2022), but this has not been enough to compensate for location and age.
2. Structural vacancy above 50% more than a year ago. The announced output now adds to the notification of Jun/2025 output of more 1,5 floor of Block F. Each additional notification hires new months of damage while the area is not relocated.
3. Liquidity practically extinct to institutional. The average daily volume is R$ 117 thousand. The fair value adjustment of the properties by 2025 has already been negative in R$ 35,8 millions — and each new chapter of vacancy raises the probability of a further down adjustment in the next report, further compressing the PL and the VP/unit (which has already retreated from R$ 7,57 to R$ 6,40 in 12 months).

What this changes in the thesis of the fund

The canonical note of the CNES11 is gone 2,8 / SALE before this relevant fact — and today’s document does not change the direction of the thesis, it just reinforces with one more hard dice. The fund remains a classic case of monoactive in structural deterioration: vacancy above 50%, recurrent accounting losses, irregular and very low-level distribution, extremely low liquidity and dependence on external catalysts (fall of Selic, resumption of the office market B) that do not depend on the fund manager.

For the unitholder who is already inside, the decision depends on average price, loading time and expectation: to dock more in this window is not defensible by the fundamentals, but is not the ideal point to zero — because part of the 75% discount on VP already reflects the expected deterioration. For those who are looking at the CNES11 from the outside, attracted by the P/VP of 0,25, the message from the fund itself, in the words of the fund manager, of course: minus 22% of contracted revenue to enter a vehicle that already operated in red.

Where to dig

• Full analysis of CNES11 (CENESP complex, BTG Practical, vacancy history, valuation)
• Original relevant fact in FundosNet (ID 1197958)
• See all FIIs analyzed

About the author

Article Author Edinei Bauer

Investor and founder of Rico to the Few.

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