Ana Carolina Marson, an International Relations professor at FESPSP, stated on InfoMoney’s Risk Map that import tariffs and the conflict involving Iran have raised the cost of living in the United States, turning them into one of the main obstacles for Donald Trump and the Republican Party in the U.S. midterm elections. For investors in Brazil, the key takeaway is that the U.S. economy is being judged at the ballot box, and the outcome could move the dollar, interest rates, and risk appetite.
What did the professor say about tariffs, war, and the cost of living?
Marson spoke on InfoMoney's political program during a special edition on the U.S. midterm elections. Her thesis is that economic performance is the key to understanding the president's electoral standing. Trump returned to the White House promising to recover jobs, strengthen domestic industry, and improve living standards. According to the professor, some of the measures adopted to fulfill that promise ended up placing additional pressure on consumers.
“So when Donald Trump imposes tariffs, it naturally raises the price of goods and services within the United States.”Ana Carolina Marson, FESPSP professor, on InfoMoney’s Risk Map
InfoMoney’s report does not feature opinion polls or inflation figures. What exists is an analyst's assessment, and it should be read as such. The article's own language is cautious: Trump's decisions may have become one of the party's primary electoral hurdles. This is a diagnosis, not a prediction of the outcome.
It remains unclear how the war factors into the equation. Marson places it alongside tariffs as a driver of the higher cost of living, but the report's summary does not detail the price transmission mechanism. Consequently, this article will not fill that gap with numbers the source did not provide.
Why does a tariff affect prices for people who do not even buy imported products?
Because tariffs do not apply only to finished goods. InfoMoney notes that they can drive up the cost of both imports and the inputs used by American industry. A factory that imports parts or raw materials pays more to produce, even when selling a "Made in USA" product.
How much of that cost reaches the consumer? The report explains that it depends on the ability of companies and suppliers to absorb the increase or pass it on to the final price. There are two paths:
- If the company or supplier absorbs the cost, its margin shrinks and retail prices rise less.
- If the cost is passed on, the consumer pays the tariff at the cash register, in the store, or at the dealership.
Marson’s assessment is that the pass-through was significant enough to amplify dissatisfaction with the administration. That leads to the paradox she points out.
How did a policy designed to protect workers end up alienating voters?
Tariffs exist to protect local production, which is why they are politically marketable. The problem is that voters feel the cost month by month, whereas the benefits (industrial jobs, reopened factories) take time and do not always materialize. When the two meet in a midterm election, the price at the grocery store tends to speak louder than political rhetoric. That is the professor's reading.
Does this mean Republicans are going to lose?
That is not what the source claims. She states that the political environment is strained, and InfoMoney's own coverage describes the election as a test of Trump and his influence, with an outcome that will signal the future of the president and his domestic and global initiatives. Voters decide the outcome, not a television program's analysis. Treating an interviewee's opinion as a finalized tally would be the easiest mistake to make here.
What does this mean for the Brazilian investor?
Nothing changes in your portfolio because of a single interview. What does change is what you should monitor: elections that redistribute power in Washington can alter the pace of tariffs and foreign policy, and that reaches Brazil through the dollar, interest rates, and capital flows to emerging markets. The source does not provide market projections, so there is no specific impact figure to cite.
The transmission channel is familiar. The dollar has already featured prominently in recent news, as we showed in our analysis of how the exchange rate and the stock market reacted to the reelection, and the external environment tends to weigh on sentiment toward the Brazilian real just as much as domestic factors do. The discussion surrounding the U.S. role in the world has also broadened in recent days, a topic we addressed when reviewing a UFABC political scientist's assessment of American leadership.
For investors holding fixed income, equities, or FIIs in Brazil, the useful question is not "who wins in the U.S.," but rather whether the outcome will drive up or ease the cost of living there. That influences what central banks do and, by extension, global investors' appetite for Brazilian assets. That is our mechanistic reading, not a statement by the professor.
What to watch going forward
The outcome of the midterm elections — if the Republican Party is weakened, Marson's thesis gains traction; if it holds its ground, the assessment loses momentum.
The trajectory of tariffs after the vote — whether they are maintained, suspended, or expanded will show if the administration heard the message on the cost of living.
Corporate pass-through — earnings reports from American retailers and industrial companies indicating whether tariff costs were absorbed or passed on to consumers.
Summary: an FESPSP professor argues that tariffs and war have raised living costs for Americans and weigh against Trump at the polls. It is an assessment, not a definitive result, but what emerges from this election could reach your wallet via the exchange rate.