- More than 20 million electric cars were sold globally in 2025, reaching a quarter of the new vehicle market.
- Lithium demand is projected to grow nearly fivefold by 2040, driven by batteries.
- A leading country accounts for an average of 70% of the refining for key transition minerals.
The rapid advancement of automotive electrification is reshaping the global mining market and opening up new investment opportunities. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released striking data on the surge in consumption of critical inputs for batteries and infrastructure.
What Did the International Energy Agency (IEA) Survey Reveal About Electric Vehicles?
The global market for electric cars surpassed the 20 million unit mark in 2025, registering a 20% increase compared to the previous year, according to the IEA. To put this expansion speed into perspective, worldwide sales had already exceeded 17 million vehicles in 2024.
With this performance, electric vehicles now account for a quarter of global new car sales. The immediate reflection appeared in the energy storage segment: in 2024 alone, demand for batteries dedicated to these vehicles exceeded 950 GWh, a 25% growth compared to 2023.
Which Minerals Are Most in Demand by the New Global Fleet?
The manufacturing of electric vehicles requires minerals in varying intensities, with lithium and graphite standing out. Both are fundamental to the composition of lithium-ion batteries, which are core components of any battery-powered vehicle.
Essential for energy storage and lithium-ion battery cathodes.
Intensively applied in electrical systems and recharging networks.
Neodymium and praseodymium make up high-efficiency permanent magnets.
Beyond lithium and graphite, the industry consumes nickel, cobalt, and manganese across different cathode chemistries. Copper plays a vital role in electrification infrastructure and automotive electrical systems. Meanwhile, rare earth elements—such as neodymium and praseodymium—are used in the permanent magnets of certain electric motors.
How Are Demand Projections Shaping Up Through 2040?
The IEA projects that lithium requirements will grow about fivefold by 2040, considering the current policy scenario and environmental targets. This expressive gain reflects the automotive industry's continuous appetite for new storage capacities.
Growth led by the expansion of the worldwide electric vehicle fleet.
Demand projected to double over the same time horizon.
Moderate advance, yet critical for grid infrastructure.
For graphite and nickel, the agency expects demand to approximately double by 2040. The need for cobalt and rare earths will also remain elevated, while copper demand is expected to post a roughly 30% increase over the period.
What Are the Geographic Bottlenecks, and Where Does Brazil Fit In?
The primary obstacle pointed out by the IEA lies in the high geographic concentration of refining for these inputs. In 2025, the leading country in processing key energy transition minerals accounted for an average of 70% of all global refining.
With strategic mineral reserves and a profile geared toward commodity extraction, Brazil is gaining relevance on the radar of investors seeking exposure to the global energy transition. Mining companies and lithium, graphite, and copper exploration projects in the country are drawing heightened interest from international markets seeking supplier diversification.
Facing this scenario of heavy concentration in a few markets, Brazil aims to carve out its space in the global supply chain, attracting investments for critical mineral extraction and processing projects on domestic soil.
What to Monitor in the Global Mineral and Electric Vehicle Chain
EV sales pace — Monitor quarterly and annual IEA reports on electric car penetration within global fleets.
Trade policies and geopolitics — Keep track of export restrictions and bilateral agreements between major powers concerning lithium and rare earth refining.
Local projects in Brazil — Watch the progress of licensing and capital allocations in B3-listed mining companies focused on strategic minerals.
