What Did Flávio Bolsonaro Propose Regarding Perse?
The full reinstatement of tax benefits previously granted to the events and tourism sector. In a speech delivered at the Great Association Meeting in São Paulo, presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro formally stated his intention to restore Perse (the Emergency Program for the Recovery of the Events Sector), a tax relief package that had been canceled and phased out under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's administration, as reported by InfoMoney.
The signal was aimed directly at the business base of services, hospitality, entertainment, and gastronomy gathered at the event. For these sectors, the benefit represented a zero tax rate on key federal taxes such as PIS, Cofins, CSLL, and IRPJ, drastically cutting operating costs in the wake of the health crisis.
This divergence marks a direct economic policy split: while the current administration's Treasury has sought to eliminate subsidies to balance the federal budget, the opposition is betting on tax relief as an engine to attract businesses and stimulate employment.
Why Was Phasing Out Perse a Battle in the Lula Administration?
Because continuous tax revenue losses threatened fiscal framework targets. Originally created during the pandemic to save companies forced to shut their doors, Perse was designed as a temporary measure with tax relief estimated in billions of reais. As the economy reopened and sectors saw revenue recoveries, the federal government's economic team began pointing to the program as an unsustainable drain on tax revenues.
The Ministry of Finance argued that the ongoing extension created unfair sector distortions against other segments of the economy paying full taxes, while also opening loopholes for aggressive tax planning. On the other hand, business associations maintained that abrupt withdrawal would compromise profit margins and expansion projects undertaken under the premise that the fiscal incentive would continue.
Watch the cost of tax relief: Any proposal to bring back a tax benefit requires indicating budget offsets or altering fiscal caps. Without a clear alternative revenue source, the market prices in rising sovereign public debt.
By promising the return of the program, Flávio Bolsonaro wins the full backing of sector businesses, but shifts to the macroeconomic level the burden of explaining how the revenue shortfall would be absorbed without blowing up the public deficit.
Which Exchange-Listed Companies and Sectors Are Directly Affected?
Companies tied to tourism, hospitality, entertainment, and travel. On the B3, companies dependent on visitor traffic and conventions felt the direct impact of both the creation and elimination of the special tax regime. Tour operators, hotel chains, and event managers saw their accounting profits boosted while the zero-rate regime was in place.
Following the phaseout decreed by the Lula administration, these companies were forced to recalculate gross margins and rebuild provisions for revenue and operating profit taxes. The prospect of Perse returning alters their calculation base once again:
Tourism, trade show, and hospitality companies return to paying zero tax on eligible federal levies, providing immediate cash relief.
The sector remains taxed under the standard regime, and the market pays the price for the fiscal stress generated by the election debate.
Market reactions to announcements of this type are always asymmetric: there is a circumscribed microeconomic gain for a handful of listed companies, but a macroeconomic cost spread across the rest of the stock market via rising long-term interest rates.
What Favors the Proposal and What Worries Investors?
The real clash is between a sector's private profit and the country's fiscal soundness. On one side, trade and association representatives argue that the benefit fosters hiring and preserves momentum for small and mid-sized operational networks. On the other, public accounts analysts point to the risk of budget disorganization.
- Operational stimulus: Reducing PIS, Cofins, and CSLL eases expenses for labor-intensive and in-person event companies.
- Investment certainty: Sectors relying on long-term convention contracts would have favorable tax predictability.
- Worsening primary deficit: Federal tax relief reduces the government's ability to deliver surpluses or contain gross debt.
- Pressure on the yield curve: More tax relief without offsetting spending cuts raises the risk premium on NTN-B bonds and DI rates.
This equation is why experienced investors do not celebrate any tax exemption without first evaluating the bill that the National Treasury passes along to the rest of the market.
How Should Retail Investors Position Their Portfolios?
Without making hasty decisions based solely on campaign promises. The 2026 election calendar brings volatility and statements targeted at specific audiences. Turning a public speech into law requires congressional approval, compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and negotiation of budget offsets.
Do not buy tourism or events stocks counting on the immediate return of tax exemptions. Perse will not return overnight. Evaluate companies based on real operating profit and current cash flow, without relying on subsidies from Brasília. At the same time, monitor fixed-income assets: loose fiscal promises keep long-term real interest rates elevated, offering attractive yields on Tesouro IPCA+ bonds.
The best filter for retail investors remains the same: separate political platform noise from concrete accounting facts. Until a legislative bill exists and moves through parliament with majority support, the current tax regime remains in full effect.
