GMAT3 shares have fallen more than 30% this month, and earnings released on November 12 show net income of R$ 322.4 million—down 36% from 2025, when Grupo Mateus benefited from nearly R$ 400 million in non-recurring income tax credits. Compared to the previous quarter, net income grew 33%, and same-store sales improved from -8% to -4.7%.
GMAT3 Q3 2026 Earnings: What Was in the Report?
Grupo Mateus reported net income of R$ 322.4 million for Q3 2026, released on November 12. Net revenue reached R$ 10.7 billion (-0.4% year-over-year), post-IFRS 16 EBITDA stood at R$ 767.7 million (-9.5%), and same-store sales came in at -4.7%—a sharp improvement over the -8.0% recorded in Q2 2026. Compared to the previous quarter, net revenue rose 8.8%, EBITDA grew 12.6%, and net income climbed 33.3%.
Gross margin reached 22.6% for the quarter—above the 21.2% reported in Q3 2025, but below the 23.5% seen in Q2 2026, pressured by heavier promotional intensity during the August anniversary campaign. Over the first nine months of the year, net revenue totaled R$ 30.0 billion (+7.5% year-over-year) and 9M26 EBITDA reached R$ 2.0 billion, with a margin of 6.6%.
Why 2025 Net Income Was an Impossible Ceiling to Repeat
Comparing Q3 2026 to Q3 2025 without adjustments shows a 61.7% drop—from R$ 842.2 million to R$ 322.4 million. However, that headline figure is more alarming than informative. In the third quarter of last year, the income tax and social contribution line included an extraordinary, non-recurring tax credit of R$ 396.3 million. In Q3 2026, that same line returned to normal, registering an expense of R$ 24.7 million. This reversal accounts for a R$ 421 million swing in results that has nothing to do with the company's operating health. Adjusted for this item, Q3 2025 net income was R$ 504.7 million, making the actual decline 36.1%.
That is still a significant drop. Beyond the tax effect, it is explained by deteriorating financial results—detailed below—and margin pressure driven by the macroeconomic environment. The company opened only 2 new Mix Mateus cash-and-carry stores during the quarter and finished September with 236 locations, pointing to expansion discipline. Cumulative capex for the first nine months of 2026 fell 71.1% year-over-year: cash generation has become the priority over accelerated growth.
-4.7% Same-Store Sales: The Weakest Metric Is Also the One That Improved Most
Negative same-store sales for several consecutive quarters remain the most critical metric to monitor, as it shows whether existing stores are selling more or less than before, regardless of how many new locations opened. In Q2 2026, same-store sales stood at -8.0%. In Q3 2026, they reached -4.7%, a 3.3 percentage point improvement. By September—the final month of the quarter—the consolidated indicator came in at -1.3%, with the GMAT banner turning positive at +0.5%.
The company explained that the negative indicator reflects two dynamics: elevated household debt, which compresses basket sizes, and a deliberate decision to scale back sales in the counter channel—a low-margin operation the company chose to trim in early 2026 to improve profitability. With the anniversary campaign and the strategic adjustments now absorbed, September suggests the worst may be behind them. In October trading, when the stock rose without any news announcements, the market appeared to anticipate precisely this recovery in same-store sales—and Q3 2026 partially delivered on those expectations.
Financial Results: Costs the Operations Cannot Yet Offset
While operations showed signs of sequential recovery, financial results worsened, reaching -R$ 250.1 million in Q3 2026—an expense 14.4% higher than in Q3 2025. With the Selic rate at an elevated level, companies with debt denominated in reais pay more to service CDI-linked obligations. Grupo Mateus ended September with net debt of R$ 1.141 billion, equivalent to 0.56x pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA for the trailing 12 months—a manageable level, though a slight deterioration from 0.51x in Q2 2026. Return on equity (ROE) illustrates the compounding effect: 16.91% in Q3 2025, 13.14% in Q2 2026, and 8.68% in Q3 2026, with profitability yielding ground each quarter under the same rising financial costs.
This pattern is not unique to Grupo Mateus: among listed company earnings released this reporting season, such as Marcopolo's Q3 2026 results and those of other retailers, operating results hold up while financial results tighten. What differentiates each company's recovery is when interest rates ease and how much debt each carries.
With the Stock at R$ 3.89, How Much Hardship Is Already Priced In?
The share price of R$ 3.89 (as of November 12, 2026) represents a 31.8% drop in November alone, down 13.8% for the year, and 39.5% over the past 12 months. The stock fell from a peak of R$ 6.50 to near its period low of R$ 3.37. Our model points to a fair value of R$ 4.14, offering a 6.1% margin of safety with medium confidence—a 162% dispersion across valuation techniques indicates the target is an estimate in the center of a wide range (R$ 0.97–7.68), not a precise figure.
Month -31.8% · 12-Month -39.5% · Period Low R$ 3.37
Margin of Safety 6.1% · Medium Confidence · P/E 5.5
A price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 5.5x and an EV/EBITDA of 3.8x make the stock look cheap by historical standards for the grocery retail sector, but a low multiple is not the same as a catalyst. The share price already discounts much of the recent deterioration; the model's fair value signals a small discount relative to the calculated value. Comparing this with companies like BB Seguridade, which posted R$ 2.4 billion in net income and offers a more predictable dividend catalyst, helps calibrate what "cheap" means in this cycle: the discount exists, but the timeline for a correction depends on variables outside the company's control.
If you bought at R$ 6 or higher, the 6% discount to the model's fair value does not erase your accumulated losses—and a recovery depends on when same-store sales return to consistent positive territory and when Brazil's central bank accelerates interest rate cuts. For investors holding small positions who can tolerate volatility, the stock trades cheap on a historical P/E basis, and there are real signs of sequential operational improvement. Our model's verdict remains a hold: no thesis violation, but no short-term catalyst identified either.
Q4 2026 Same-Store Sales — If September's -1.3% proves to be a trend, the next earnings report could show positive SSS for the first time in 2026. A number above zero would be the clearest sign that an operational turnaround is truly underway.
Financial Results — The R$ 250 million quarterly cost will ease once Brazil's central bank accelerates the Selic rate-cutting cycle. Each 1 percentage point reduction in the benchmark rate directly relieves the cost of the R$ 1.1 billion debt; keep an eye on Copom statements.
Capex Discipline — The 71% drop in investments during the first nine months of 2026 improves free cash flow and keeps the debt-to-EBITDA ratio in check. If the company resumes accelerated expansion before same-store sales stabilize in positive territory, financial costs will pressure net income once again.
Grupo Mateus delivered a mixed bag in Q3 2026: the year-over-year comparison looks catastrophic, but it is distorted by R$ 396 million in extraordinary Q3 2025 tax credits. On an adjusted basis, net income fell 36%—the result of negative same-store sales and financial results pressured by the Selic rate, not an operational breakdown. Sequentially, conditions improved: net income rose 33%, EBITDA grew 13%, and same-store sales improved from -8% to -4.7%. The investment thesis remains a hold, with the stock trading slightly below the model's fair value. What could change this outlook are Q4 2026 same-store sales and the pace of interest rate cuts.
