What is lock-up — and why does that date matter
Each FII unit issue may provide for a lock-up period for new subscribers. It is an exit lock: whoever entered the offer is prevented from selling the purchased units for a fixed interval (usually 6 months in the case of the 11th of the HGLG11). It serves two purposes — it prevents the new money from entering just to arbitrate the agio of follow-on and resell the next day, and it gives the fund manager time to allocate the captured capital before half of the float returns to the fold.
The 11th issue of HGLG11 left R$ 166,58/unit and captured about R$ 700 Mi for the acquisition of new logistical assets. In 29/05/2026, the lock-up of these units ends. In gross numbers:
- 3.197.177 units are free to negotiate
- That's equal to ~7,35% of the total float background
- Subscription price: R$ 166,58
- Current quotation: R$ 155,00 → Nominal injury of ~7%
Who are these people who can sell?
The profile of subscribers changes the risk reading a lot. About 2,13 million of the 3,2 Mi of units (~67%) were not purchased with new money — came from the incorporation of the PATL11, in which former unit holders of the former fund received units from the HGLG11 in conversion. This group:
- He didn't write a check on R$ 166,58 — received unit in a trading relationship
- In general he was already a logistics background unit holder, a well-known thesis
- Has more consolidated buy-and-hold profile
The 1,07 Mi of remaining units (~33%) was subscribed with new money, in the primary offer to R$ 166,58. This is the group with clear incentive to think twice before carrying damage: investor person who entered the 11th and saw the unit slide to R$ 155 in recent months.
The numbers of "real risk"
The scenario of imagined panic is: lock-up wins, 3,2 Mi of units flood the fold, unit lands. Math doesn't support this base scenario:
| Indicator | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Float HGLG11 | 43,5 Mi units |
| Quotas released tomorrow | 3,2 Mi (7,35%) |
| ADTV (daily average volume) | R$ 13,5 Mi |
| Equivalent in units/day | ~87 thousand units |
| Days to absorb the entire lock-up | ~37 nails |
| Total Quotas | 565.330 |
Even in the extreme scenario — all 3,2 Mi selling — the market would absorb in ~37 nails with normal flow. Considering that about 2/3 of the units are in the hands of those who received by incorporation (less urgent), the effective impact should be much lower: probably 20-30% of this total reaching the book in the first weeks. Translation: some pressure on tomorrow's platform and the next few days, but far from "falling the bottom."
Base scenario vs. adverse scenario
Base scenario (probable)
Over-average trading volume per 5-10 nails. Quota oscillates between R$ 152 and R$ 156, without structural disruption. Whoever signed up and wants to leave is going to come out in slices, not in a block. In two weeks the noise goes away.
Adverse scenario (less likely)
It coincides with macro worsening (long rising interest) or new bad operational news (vacancy going to 11%, for example). Cota tests R$ 148-150, but with increased liquidity and entry opportunity for outsiders.
Impact on grounds: zero
Lock-up is event market technician. . Doesn't change:
- The DPS of R$ 1,10/month (which, remember, is supported in part by reservations — see the Q1/2026 analysis)
- The financial vacancy of 9,37%
- THE WALE of 3,6 years
- The leverage of 9,2%
- The portfolio of 37 real estate and 2,07 Mi m2
What moves the fundamental thesis of the HGLG11 continues to be the vacancy in the hubs of Guarulhos, Osasco and SJC; the ramp-up of the new assets (New World Park and Embu); and the country's ability to digest the cycle of two large emissions in four months (10th of ZQX1ZX Bi + 11th of R$ 700 Mi). Lock-up winning is nothing like that.
Two recent administrative reminders
In the communications package of the last two weeks, it is worth mentioning two points that do not change the investment, but the unit holder must know:
- 26/05: regulatory change including fee transparency clause in the ANBIMA standard. Administrative change, no operational impact.
- 27/05: former PATL11 unit holders have up to 11/06/2026 to inform the average purchase price. Those who do not inform will have the IR of sale calculated on the lowest historical quotation of the PATL11 — that is, you can pay tax on earnings you did not have. If you're from incorporation, do the information on time.
How to read this in practice
For those who already have HGLG11 in their wallet
There's no fundamental reason to zero position tomorrow. If you bought it for the logistics blue chip thesis with Homeland management, the thesis follows. Lock-up winning is short-term noise. If you want to buy more, waiting 5-10 nails can get the unit a little cheaper.
Who are you looking at from the outside?
HGLG11 to R$ 155, P/VP 0.91x, DY 8,55% — is already discounted. Short-term selling pressure can offer an even better entry point (R$ 148-152), but trying to time 1-2 real on top of a fund that will deliver by dividing for decades is typical of the investor who loses the trade trying to find the perfect fund.
For those who have subscribed to R$ 166,58 and are at the expense of
The decision to sell now to R$ 155 and perform the damage only makes sense if the thesis of the fund has changed. It hasn't changed. What changed was the market cycle and the timing of the entrance. Selling at maximum technical discount point, without change of foundation, is exactly the error the lock-up tried to prevent.
Verdict: BUY — Note 7,5
The 11th emission lock-up is a technical event, not a structural event. Sustained the recommendation of BUY with note 7,5. Short-term save: In the next 5-10 nails, it is reasonable to expect volume above average and additional oscillation between R$ 152 and R$ 156. Cotista in position: maintain. Looking unit: unit to 0.91x VP with 8,55% DY is already defensible input; noise can deliver additional 1-2% discount, but it is not worth losing the asset for that. The points of attention that matter (vacancy in specific hubs, DPS supported by reserves, absorption cycle of the two large emissions) remain the same as in the previous analysis — and none of them has to do with what happens tomorrow at 10 a.m.
