Political scientist Ivan Fernandes, a professor at UFABC, stated in an InfoMoney video that the United States is no longer a responsible leader: under Trump and a more aggressive foreign policy, the country no longer acts as the reliable actor that protected allies and stabilized regions. In his view, this weighs directly on Brazil, and for investors, the takeaway translates to paying attention to the dollar, interest rates, and oil.
What Did Ivan Fernandes Say About the United States?
The warning was issued on Mapa de Risco, an InfoMoney political program, as the professor analyzed the challenges facing President Lula’s new administration. His argument has two parts. The first is a diagnostic shift: the U.S. was, in his view, an actor allies could rely on—one that protected them and helped stabilize regions—whereas today, under Trump, it has adopted a more aggressive stance. The second is the consequence: this shift is not restricted to those near conflicts; it directly reaches Brazil.
“The United States is no longer a responsible leader”title of the InfoMoney video featuring Ivan Fernandes of UFABC
This is an international relations analysis delivered by a political scientist, not a price projection. Translating this thesis into implications for the dollar, interest rates, and the stock market is our job from here on out, and it is worth clarifying where his remarks end and our analysis begins.
What the Source Does Not Detail—And Why That Matters Before Tweaking Your Portfolio
The material we have is a video summary, and it does not cover the details that would interest investors most. It does not state which American government decisions the professor has in mind, which regions he considers less stable, or through what channel he sees the impact hitting Brazil. Nor are there any numbers: no estimates for the exchange rate, interest rates, or economic growth accompany the warning.
This changes how the information should be used. A geopolitical thesis without a dated trigger is neither a buy nor a sell signal. It serves as background context to weigh the risks you are already carrying, and it is in that role that it enters the upcoming sections. Anyone who watches the full video will find the concrete examples missing here, and it is worth checking whether they point to any of the channels listed below.
Why the U.S. Stance Reaches Your Wallet
For decades, global investors treated the United States as the anchor of the financial system: a country whose decisions could be inconvenient, but were predictable. When that anchor begins to be perceived as a source of uncertainty, capital demands a higher return to accept risk, and emerging markets—with Brazil among them—usually feel it first. That is the reasoning behind the professor's statement, and it appears across four main channels.
| Channel | How Geopolitics Enters | Where You Feel It |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate (USD) | Global uncertainty drives capital to seek safe havens and pull back from emerging markets | Travel, imported goods, exporting companies, and firms with dollar-denominated debt |
| Future Interest Rates | Higher risk requires a larger premium to finance Brazil | Fixed-rate Treasury bonds (Tesouro Prefixado), inflation-linked bonds (IPCA+), and rate-sensitive stocks |
| Oil | Tension in producing regions moves Brent crude | Fuel prices, inflation, and Petrobras |
| Equities and Foreign Flow | Global managers reduce exposure to markets perceived as riskier | Ibovespa, FIIs (Brazilian real estate funds), and asset liquidity |
Oil is the easiest channel to spot, because American diplomacy has moved prices before. As we showed when a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran caused Brent crude to plummet and eased future interest rates in Brazil, it took only one negotiation for the market to reprice. The reverse reasoning is what worries those who agree with the professor: if American foreign policy is more aggressive and less predictable, the movement tends to happen more frequently in the negative direction, rather than just the positive one.
Does This Add to the Risks Brazil Already Faces at Home?
The central point is the compounding effect. The program started from the challenges facing Lula’s new administration, and Brazilian investors already contend with domestic risks. Market reactions to election outcomes are covered in our reporting on the 2026 elections. Goldman Sachs' warnings regarding fiscal risk and governance, which have impacted the exchange rate, are covered in our analysis on the topic.
An external risk does not cause or replace an internal one. What it does is reduce the margin for error: with a more nervous global environment, Brazil has less tolerance for fiscal or political noise, because the capital that could otherwise absorb the shock is more cautious. Even so, based on what we have from the source, the professor does not claim the dollar will rise or that the stock market will fall. What he asserts is that the external landscape has fundamentally changed.
What Questions Remain?
Should I sell Brazilian stocks because of this? Nothing in the source supports that kind of decision. It is a thesis without a price tag or a timeline, and acting on it would mean shooting in the dark. The sensible approach is to review how much of your portfolio depends on a single assumption: whether it is entirely domestic equities, long-term fixed-rate bonds, or dollar-denominated debt.
Will the dollar go up? The source does not say. A stronger dollar is a possible consequence of greater global uncertainty, but it also depends on the fiscal scenario, interest rates, and capital flows—factors that Fernandes' warning does not cover.
Is this news, or is it already priced in? The summary does not make that clear. Trump is in office, not breaking news, and the market is already familiar with his foreign policy. The new element here is an expert's assessment, not a fresh development that alters a benchmark rate tomorrow.
Nothing changes in your returns today, and no asset gained or lost value because of the professor's remarks. What does change is the question you should ask your portfolio: if the external environment becomes more volatile, can it withstand it? Investors with a large portion of their wealth tied to a single factor—such as exchange rates, long-term interest rates, or a commodity—have more to review than those who have diversified.
What to Monitor Moving Forward?
The full video — look for the specific foreign policy examples the professor cites. These indicate whether the risks point toward oil, trade, or conflicts, and consequently, which market channel is worth watching.
Oil and the dollar on tense days — if the thesis holds true, they react first to external decisions. Compare their movements against calm weeks, without drawing conclusions from an isolated single day.
Future interest rates — this is where Brazil's risk premium shows up. If rates rise without a clear domestic trigger, the external environment may be weighing on the numbers.
In short, Ivan Fernandes provides a lens, not a prediction. That lens is worth using, provided investors do not mistake an expert's analysis for a buy or sell order.
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