According to InfoMoney's calendar, the week of November 9 through 13 centers on inflation. In Brazil, Itaú and Bradesco project an October IPCA inflation rate between 0.21% and 0.29%. Any figure within this range pushes inflation further above the ceiling of the target band, giving the Central Bank another reason to keep the Selic benchmark rate on hold. The Selic rate ultimately dictates your fixed-income returns, as well as the valuations of Brazilian real estate funds (FIIs) and stocks.
What Economic Releases Are Due the Week of November 9–13?
Three main events stand out: the Copom minutes and the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, November 10; the October IPCA on Thursday, November 12; and the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) on Friday, November 13. While InfoMoney's summary cited Wednesday, November 11 for the IPCA, Thursday actually falls on the 12th. The headline October IPCA will be released on November 12, according to Agência Brasil, which follows the IBGE calendar. In the United States, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that the October CPI is scheduled for November 10, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. New York time.
| Day | Brazil | United States |
|---|---|---|
| Mon (Nov 9) | Focus Bulletin, October IGP-DI, trade balance | — |
| Tue (Nov 10) | Copom minutes | October CPI |
| Thu (Nov 12) | October IPCA (IBGE) | Jobless claims, fiscal results |
| Fri (Nov 13) | — | October PPI (producer prices) |
Among all these indicators, the IPCA is the one that directly impacts your wallet. And on this front, the major banks disagree.
Where Will October IPCA Land, and Why Are Banks Divided?
Bradesco expects a stronger increase, driven by food prices. Itaú projects a lower figure, though it notes that core services—the component of inflation that shows persistent pressure excluding volatile items—remain under pressure. According to Itaú's calculations, the 12-month accumulated inflation rate rises to 4.7%, compared to 4.6% in September.
The mid-month IPCA-15 index helps explain why the banks diverge. The IPCA-15 rose 0.32% in October, coming in below expectations, but the largest increase and impact stemmed from Food and Beverages (0.32% and 0.19 percentage points). Forecasters who assign greater weight to rising food costs land closer to Bradesco's figure, while those who give more weight to relief in electricity bills lean toward Itaú.
Even the lowest projection pushes the 12-month accumulated figure higher due to base effects. The 12-month calculation drops October 2025—when the IPCA stood at 0.09%—and adds October 2026. Inflation stands at an accumulated 4.58% over 12 months and 3.95% for 2026 through September. Based on our calculations, Itaú's projection lifts the 12-month rate to roughly 4.71% (1.0458 × 1.0021 ÷ 1.0009). Bradesco's projection pushes it to about 4.79%. In both scenarios, inflation exceeds the target ceiling. The continuous inflation target established by the National Monetary Council (CMN) is 3%, with a tolerance band of 1.5 percentage points in either direction, making the ceiling 4.5%. To compare official inflation with the price changes you experience in daily life, our real inflation page compared to the IPCA, month by month runs the numbers.
Inflation running above the target ceiling is precisely the reason the Central Bank cited for halting interest rate cuts. That is why Tuesday's minutes matter just as much as the IPCA release.
What Might the Copom Minutes Reveal That the Statement Omitted?
The minutes should clarify whether the current rate pause will be short-lived or extended. On November 4, Copom voted unanimously to hold the Selic rate at 13.75% per year following five consecutive 0.25-percentage-point cuts. The committee described monetary policy as "substantially contractionary," meaning interest rates are already at a level that slows the economy. According to Itaú, the market will scour the minutes for how the committee evaluates the inflation outlook—which has become more challenging—and what guidance it provides for upcoming meetings.
Nomad pointed out the specific detail likely to dominate the reading of the minutes: the committee removed the sentence regarding the total magnitude of the easing cycle, which may signal that rate cuts have concluded, at least for now. If the minutes confirm that interpretation, projections like the one from Fecomércio-RS gain traction, pointing to a steady Selic rate at the final meeting of 2026 on December 9, with rate cuts resuming sometime in the first half of 2027.
Market expectations have already shifted. In our preview of the Copom decision, the market remained split between a rate cut and a pause. In a survey of 105 institutions, 72 bet on interest rate stability while 33 expected a further cut to 13.50%. Following the decision, the central bank's Focus survey pointed to a Selic rate of 13.50% by the end of 2026, compared to 13.25% in the previous survey.
However, Brazil does not operate in a vacuum. On that same Tuesday, the U.S. releases data that could either reinforce or alleviate external pressures.
Why U.S. Inflation Affects the Exchange Rate and the Stock Market
The U.S. CPI will show whether the Federal Reserve has grounds to raise interest rates. Higher U.S. rates tend to pull capital out of emerging economies like Brazil. Friday's nonfarm payroll report came in strong, showing the U.S. added 165,000 jobs in October against a forecast of 65,000, according to Investing.com. As InfoMoney reported, this increased the probability of a U.S. rate hike, yet the Ibovespa rose more than 1%, following Wall Street. The same employment data contributed to a sell-off in European equities, as we examined in why European stock markets fell on Friday.
U.S. inflation is already running hot. The latest September CPI reading hit 3.7% over 12 months, topping the 3.6% forecast, and Investing.com's consensus for October anticipates a monthly increase of 0.3%, half of September's 0.6% pace. If October comes in higher than expected, the Fed moves closer to raising rates in December, the U.S. dollar tends to strengthen, and the Brazilian real loses value. A weaker real also exerts upward pressure on the IPCA in the coming months by making imported goods more expensive.
Weighing both inflation reports, what changes for your portfolio? It depends on where the final IPCA figure lands.
What Each IPCA Scenario Means for Investors
The 12-month accumulated inflation rate will exceed the target ceiling in virtually any scenario. For the market, the remaining question is whether it rises by a little or a lot. The accumulated figures below are our estimates, using the same base effect described previously.
Indicates that energy relief outweighed food inflation. Reinforces expectations that rate cuts will resume in early 2027 and tends to compress long-term bond yields.
Confirms the scenario of a steady Selic rate through December. Changes little for investors already positioned.
Generalized services inflation, combined with a weak real, pushes the resumption of rate cuts further out and weighs on fixed-rate bonds, real estate funds (FIIs), and growth stocks.
For investors holding post-fixed income securities, the math remains favorable. With the Selic rate at 13.75% and inflation around 4.7%, the ex-post real interest rate (adjusted for past inflation) sits near 8.6% per year: 1.1375 ÷ 1.047 − 1. Inflation-linked bonds also offer high yields. The Tesouro IPCA+ 2040 bond yielded IPCA + 7.62%, and the 2050 maturity offered a 7.48% real yield, according to Money Times, the day after the Copom meeting. Yields remained elevated for the same reason discussed in what to expect for the dollar, stocks, interest rates, and FIIs following the reelection: the market is demanding a fiscal risk premium.
If you hold Tesouro Selic or post-fixed bank certificates of deposit (CDBs), the rate pause secures several more months of strong returns, and this week's data does not change that. For Tesouro IPCA+ bonds or paper-based FIIs indexed to the IPCA, higher inflation boosts the monetary correction factored into distributions, typically with a one-to-two-month lag. The downside is that long-term bond prices fall if the minutes signal prolonged high interest rates. For equity-like brick-and-mortar FIIs and stocks that depend on falling interest rates, an IPCA reading above the Focus median defers the capital appreciation that would accompany rate cuts. None of these outcomes call for an immediate portfolio overhaul. They shift the timeline of your expectations, not the fundamental logic of each investment.
The week will answer a single question: Will the Selic rate remain at 13.75% only through December or well into 2027? Tuesday's minutes will reveal the Central Bank's mindset, and Thursday's IPCA will show whether inflation gives policymakers any reason to change course.