What has changed since the previous analysis (19/05/2026)
Na previous analysis of May we worked with the number that the fund manager estimated in the April Management Report: R$ 73,19 balance sheet and ~10% spread. O Monthly Information of May/2026 brought the consolidated data after leaving the real estate balance sheet, and four things changed:
- VP confirmed in R$ 68,10/unit — R$ 5,09 below estimated. The actual spread fell from ~10% to ~6,2%.
- Profitability of -23,6% in the month (equity unit dropped from R$ 89,15 to R$ 68,10) — is accounting effect of the sale, no operational loss.
- Vórtx deadline closed in 11/06/2026 — those who did not report average cost will have IRF calculated by the basis of R$ 40,02 (R$ 5,62/withheld unit).
- Final PL of R$ 339,9 mi — 100% in units HGLG11 (R$ 337,8 mi) + R$ 5,14 mi in public securities to cover IRRF. No more physical properties.
Why VP dropped from R$ 89,15 to R$ 68,10
Who opened the Monthly Report of May/2026 and saw equity profitability of -23,6% in the month You've had a legitimate scare. The share fell from R$ 89,15 (April/2026) to R$ 68,10 (May/2026). Looks like the fund lost almost a quarter of its worth in 30 days. You didn't. That's accounting, not cash coming out of your pocket.
The explanation is how the assets were marked before and after the sale. In April, the 4 sheds were still in the balance sheet of the PATL11 for the value of evaluation — which embodyed a accumulated historical real estate valuation. This value inflated the equity share for R$ 89,15. When the sale to HGLG11 was effectively counted in may, there were three releases at the same time:
- The sheds They're out. the balance sheet at fair value accounting of the transaction (not by the full valuation that was in the asset).
- The 2.130.508 units HGLG11 received in payment They're in. marked on the market.
- The unrealised asset gain that was "guarded" in the valuation of the properties was download — because it no longer exists as a real estate asset.
The net result was the equity unit converge to the amount that the unit will actually receive: ~R$ 68/unit in HGLG11 + box units. In other words, the R$ 89,15 was a paper number; the R$ 68,10 is the real number of what is in the bottom hand today. The simple numerical example: If you had 1.000 units marked to R$ 89.150 in April and R$ 68.100 in May, you did not lose R$ 21.050 — this value was never redeemable. What counts is what will be amortised in July, and this is ~R$ 68/unit (before IRRF).
Vórtx deadline has passed — what happens now
This is the part where there's no turning back. The window to report the average purchase cost to Vórtx was 12/05 to 11/06/2026 and It's over.. . Whoever read the previous analysis and acted is protected. Whoever let it pass automatically enters the conservative calculation. See the practical difference:
- Who informed the average cost: the IRF will be calculated on the real gain (VP − your purchase cost). Who bought above R$ 68,10 has not won and paid R$ 0. Who bought R$ 60 pays 20% over R$ 8,10 = R$ 1,62/unit. Fair tax.
- WHO DIDN'T REPORT: Vórtx applies as a cost base the lower historical unit price, R$ 40,02. . The automatic calculation is: R$ 68,10 − R$ 40,02 = R$ 28,08 of "hypothetical profit" × 20% = R$ 5,62/IRF unit retained at source - even if you've never had that win.
The unfair detail: most of the 33.546 unit holders bought above R$ 40,02 (the unit was only at this level in Jan/2025). Whoever bought R$ 64, R$ 70 or R$ 90 and did not report will pay tax on a gain that does not exist — and whoever bought above R$ 68 will pay IRRF even if it has real damage. It's the rule, no matter how much it hurts.
The exact value of the IRRF to be retained by unit will be disclosed in 30/06/2026, along with the amortisation notice. Whoever paid DARF of equity gain in previous months may have minimized the bite — but if it did not report the average cost to Vórtx within the deadline, the retention in the source will follow the conservative calculation of R$ 5,62/unit anyway. The recovery of excess will only be possible later, via adjustment in the IR declaration of 2026, with all the bureaucracy that this implies.
Final schedule: the next 18 days
| Date | What's happening? | Impact for the unit |
|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2026 | Disclosure of the exact value of the depreciation | Sets how many HGLG11 units per PATL unit, the cash value and the IRRF retained by unit. |
| 03/07/2026 | Delivery of 2.130.508 units HGLG11 | Quotas fall into the brokerage company at the market price of HGLG on that date — not the acquisition value. |
| 07/07/2026 | Payment of the instalment in cash | Remaining cash falls into account, IRRF net and expenses. |
Notice: The number that matters is not the VP of R$ 68,10 isolated. It is the market price of HGLG11 in 03/07, because it is that day and at this price that units are credited. The R$ 68,10 is today's accounting reference; the actual value delivered depends on the mood of the market in 18 days.
The risk that still exists: price of HGLG in 03/07
The VP of R$ 68,10 presupposes the HGLG11 marked next to the acquisition value (R$ 166,58). But delivery is the market. Today the HGLG11 negotiates around R$ 166–167, practically in the purchase price — which validates the VP. The problem is that it can change until 03/07.
The bill is direct. The proportion is ~0,4267 unit HGLG per unit PATL (2.130.508 Logo:
- If HGLG is R$ 166 in 03/07: each PATL unit is worth ~R$ 70,83 in HGLG (0,4267 × 166), in line with VP + box.
- If HGLG drop 5% for ~R$ 158: each PATL unit is worth ~R$ 67,42 in HGLG — you lose ~5% of the delivered value, and the ~6% spread virtually evaporates.
- If HGLG up 5% for ~R$ 175: each PATL unit is worth ~R$ 74,67 in HGLG — the total gain is well above the current spread.
Who is sitting on PATL11 today is in practice purchased at HGLG11 without knowing the final execution price. Is it worth keeping HGLG after receiving? The HGLG11 is the largest logistics FII in Brazil, CSHG (Credit Suisse Hedging-Griffo) management, 13+ logistical assets in SP, RJ and MG, high liquidity and core portfolio. For those who wanted high-quality logistics exposure, ending the trade as HGLG’s unit is a good outcome — keeping makes sense. For those who just wanted to leave, the decision to sell on 03/07 will depend on the price of HGLG on the date.
Who Won and Who Lost — The Trade verdict
Now that the final number is practically locked in ~R$ 68/unit, you can close the honest balance of each unit profile:
| When you bought it | Cost | You will receive (~) | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Minimum (jan/2025) | R$ 44 | ~R$ 68 + dividends | +~55% In 17 months. Excellent trade. |
| IPO (Aug/2020) | R$ 100 | ~R$ 68 + ~R$ 28,50 accumulated dividends | Total ~R$ 96,50 → -3,5% nominal in 6 years (and much worse already discounted inflation). |
| Spread Thesis (May/2026) | R$ 66 | ~R$ 68 | +~3% gross — it can be zero or negative if it has not reported average cost. |
The reading is clear: the post-IPO "arbitrage" destroyed value for those who stayed from the beginning. Who bought in the IPO R$ 100, received ~R$ 28,50/unit dividends over 6 years and will leave with ~R$ 68, closes with nominal loss of ~3,5% — and, discounted the period inflation, the real loss borders the -35%. The fund promised high standard logistics and delivered vacancy, revaluation down and a sale to ~ZQX0ZX× VP. Whoever knew how to buy cheap at a minimum and is leaving now is the only group that really made money with this vehicle.
6 Month RMG and Tail — Which Can Still Change
The number of ~R$ 68/unit is not necessarily the end point. The Minimum Guaranteed Income (RMG) that the PATL gave to HGLG goes from Apr to Sep/2026 and messes with the remaining PL in both directions:
- If vacancy in real estate (Itatiaia and RDN) is reduced during the RMG, the PATL disburses less to HGLG, leaves more cash in the PL and the final amortization can be slightly larger.
- If vacancy persists, RMG disbursement consumes part of the minimum PL of R$ 5 mi reserved, and the final portion shrinks.
- Tail: If HGLG sells any of the assets received before out/2026 with profit, the PATL is entitled to a party — which would be used as additional amortisation in subsequent months.
These are margin adjustments, not grand order adjustments. The bulk (~R$ 68/unit in HGLG + box) is defined; RMG and tail move pennies up or down in the final balance.
Verdict — for the current unit holder: Wait
O PATL11 It's no longer an I.I.D. with real estate. Today it is, accountingly, a fund that has HGLG11 inside" waiting for delivery. The VP of R$ 68,10 is confirmed, the actual spread is ~6% (not the ~10% that was calculated on the estimated R$ 73,19), and the final number depends on the price of HGLG on 03/07.
For those who already have a unit: There's nothing to do now but wait. The place closed on 11/05, the units are blocked, there is no secondary market. The deadline of reporting average cost has passed — who reported is protected, who did not report will see R$ 5,62/IRF unit in the amortization and will have to seek adjustment in the IR declaration. Follow the 30/06 communiqué with the exact value. Upon receiving the HGLG11 units on 03/07, maintaining is defensible (HGLG is high quality logistics core); selling will depend on the price at the date.
For those who are outside: You can't get in. PATL11 units have been blocked since 12/05 — there is no way to buy to capture the spread. Anyone who wants exposure to the outcome buys HGLG11 directly, which is the fate of all this.
