PETR3 Dips as Oil Export Tax Is Extended Through December — How Does the 12% Levy Impact the State-Run Giant?

PETR3 shares closed Friday, November 6, down 1.10% at R$ 51.21, the same day the government published an extension of the 12% tax on crude oil exports through December 31. Yet the tax itself explains little: according to JPMorgan, the cost was already priced into the market. What weighs on the stock is the trajectory of Brent crude and uncertainty regarding 2027.

Why Is PETR3 Falling Today?

The stock faced two distinct pressures on the same day. First, the broader weekly trend: Petrobras shares dropped about 14% over the first four sessions, heading toward their worst weekly performance since February 2021 as Brent retreated amid advancing negotiations between the United States and Iran, according to *Revista Oeste*. Second, the Friday session itself: shares finished in the red, bucking the rise in oil prices noted by *Money Times*. In the same trading session, the Ibovespa gained 1.39% to reach 168,498 points, while Prio (PRIO3) fell 1.72%.

When a stock falls on a day when crude oil and the broader market rise, the reason typically lies within the sector. The key sector development of the day was the tax extension. The decision was formalized by Gecex Resolution No. 977 on November 5, published Friday, November 6, in the *Federal Official Gazette*, and takes effect this Saturday, November 7. None of the sources attribute Friday’s decline solely to the tax. Rather, the entire week reflects an unwinding of risk premium: Petrobras's market value dropped from a record R$ 819.8 billion on October 16 to R$ 628.2 billion, though it remains above the R$ 532.2 billion valuation seen before the conflict. The decline from the peak exceeds 23%, a movement readers may recognize from our coverage of PETR4's sharp drop earlier in the week.

If the market already anticipated the extension, why does it still cause concern? The answer lies in how the levy impacts each company differently.

How Does the Tax Weigh on Petrobras Compared to PRIO?

It weighs considerably less. In JPMorgan's assessment, the company most exposed to the levy remains PRIO (PRIO3), followed by Brava Energia (BRAV3), while Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4) occupies a relatively more comfortable position. The difference stems from the proportion of foreign sales: Brava sends 30% to 40% of its production abroad, while Petrobras has about 20% of its revenue tied to exports. PRIO exports virtually everything, a fact the company highlighted in its earnings report, as detailed in our analysis of PRIO's third-quarter 2026 earnings and production.

The bank also ran the numbers for a scenario feared by the market, in which the levy remains in place throughout the entirety of 2027:

The chart illustrates cash generation as a percentage of market value in 2027, with Brent at $82. With the levy maintained throughout 2027, PRIO's cash generation would equal 27% of its market value, compared to 32% without the tax. For Petrobras, it would fall from 19% to 15%, according to JPMorgan's calculations cited by the website *Investir é Começar*. In percentage points, Petrobras's decline (4 points) approaches PRIO's decline (5 points), because the state-run company is also affected on the side of fuel subsidies and realized prices. Even so, both companies continue to generate robust cash flow relative to their market capitalizations.

There is an offsetting factor that PRIO lacks. When the tax was first introduced, Bradesco BBI estimated that Petrobras would experience a more balanced net impact, combining export losses with the benefit of the fuel subsidy the state-run company receives. This subsidy is funded directly by the revenue collected from the tax. For this reason, the current extension is neither the first nor the harshest.

Wasn't the Tax Supposed to Be Temporary?

It was, and it has already been extended three times. This sequence explains why the market stopped treating December 31 as a reliable expiration date:

The legal path is the main point contested by oil companies. To maintain the tax, the government resorted to Camex, an agency with the legal authority to alter import and export tax rates. Abep, the association of oil producers, argues that the government used an administrative resolution to bypass the expiration of the provisional measure. The government cites a different rationale: ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and risks to domestic fuel supplies, particularly diesel.

There is also a fiscal motive. According to Brazil's federal tax authority, the tax collected R$ 2.943 billion in September alone, bringing the year-to-date total to R$ 12.869 billion. In a year when the Treasury relies on this revenue to fund subsidies, abandoning it in January would be a costly choice for the government. That is precisely what investors fear. Before that, however, it is worth examining what the 55 extra days cost on a per-share basis.

Will the Extension Cut PETR3's Dividend?

The cut will be modest, based on the following calculations. Petrobras reported to the SEC that it recognized a $1.087 billion expense related to this tax in the six-month period ending June 30 ($965 million in the second quarter alone), noting that the levy is non-recoverable but deductible from corporate income tax (IRPJ and CSLL) bases. The second-quarter pace implies roughly $320 million per month. Meanwhile, XP estimated $400 million for a 60-day period during the July extension. The 55 days between November 7 and December 31 should therefore cost between $400 million and $580 million (our estimate, which depends on Brent prices and export volumes).

This estimate aligns with JPMorgan's view: maintaining the tax should not prompt major revisions to the bank's earnings projections, as many investors already expected the extension. The bank maintains an overweight rating (equivalent to a buy) for PRIO and Petrobras, and a neutral rating for Brava Energia and PetroReconcavo. The figure that will actually move the dividend is scheduled for release next week: Petrobras's third-quarter 2026 earnings report is slated for November 10 after the market close, followed by an online press conference with management on Wednesday, November 11, at 3:30 p.m. Dividend projections range from $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion, according to Itaú BBA, which would correspond to a 3.2% dividend yield.

What Factors Will Weigh For and Against PETR3 Moving Forward?

The 2026 tax is a minor and known cost. What will truly drive the stock is the rest of the list, with Brent crude at the top. Crude prices can be tracked on our live oil price page, and the background on negotiations is covered in our report on Iran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

• Low per-share cost of the extension: pennies per share, partially offset by fuel subsidies received by the state-run company.
• Still-robust cash flow: even under JPMorgan's worst-case scenario, 2027 cash generation equals 15% of market value.
• Third-quarter 2026 dividend in play: next week's earnings report will detail the quarterly payout, and XP already sees room for extraordinary dividends following the Business Plan release.
• Uncertainty surrounding 2027: JPMorgan notes that a lack of visibility regarding the tax beyond December 31, 2026, could discourage new exploration and production projects. Three consecutive extensions have taught the market to distrust stated deadlines.
• Falling Brent prices amid diplomacy: a U.S.-Iran agreement removes the risk premium that drove the stock to its October record, an effect vastly greater than that of the tax.
• Priced-in regulatory risk: JPMorgan assesses that the extension increases perceived risk for the entire oil and gas sector, even without altering earnings.