Suzano (SUZB3) shares closed Friday (6) up 2.12% at R$ 53.40. It was the first trading session after Suzano reported the highest quarterly revenue in its 102-year history: R$ 16.5 billion in the third quarter of 2026. The record, however, is almost entirely the result of consolidating Arbex. Pulp revenue remained virtually flat, and a smaller share of each real sold trickled down to the shareholder.
SUZB3 Stock Today: How Did Shares React to the Record?
The stock gained ground. With the B3 closed on Saturday, the reference price is Friday's close, the first session following the earnings release. According to InfoMoney, Suzano (SUZB3) rose 2.12%, moving from a previous close of R$ 52.29 to R$ 53.40. The earnings report came out on Thursday (5) after the B3 closed, followed by the earnings call with analysts on Friday.
This gain is modest for a company reporting a "record" headline. It also follows a strong October, during which the stock accumulated a 24.2% gain driven by the U.S. dollar following the election—as we highlighted when JPMorgan placed Suzano among its favorite exporters. The market had already priced in the foreign exchange impact beforehand. On Friday, the stock reacted to an earnings report that, upon closer inspection, came in line with expectations or slightly below.
What Drove Suzano’s 36% Revenue Surge?
It was Arbex. Suzano posted net revenue of R$ 16.5 billion, up 36% compared to the third quarter of 2025 and setting a new quarterly record, according to the company. Arbex is the tissue joint venture created with Kimberly-Clark. Suzano paid US$ 1.3 billion for a 51% stake, but now consolidates 100% of Arbex's revenue, expenses, and other financial indicators into its balance sheet.
The numbers reveal the scale of the impact. Revenue climbed from R$ 12.15 billion to R$ 16.52 billion—an increase of R$ 4.30 billion, which accounts for nearly the entire R$ 4.36 billion growth in total revenue. Without Arbex, Suzano would have posted revenue of roughly R$ 12.2 billion, up about 0.5% from the third quarter of 2025 (our calculation). In other words, the legacy business remained flat. The new Consumer Goods unit, which combines Arbex and Suzano's existing operations in Brazil, posted net revenue of R$ 5 billion for the quarter, of which R$ 4.2 billion came from international markets.
So why didn't net income keep pace? For two reasons: analyst expectations and the profit margin on each real sold by Arbex.
Did Earnings Come in Better or Worse Than Expected?
Operationally, results came in slightly below expectations. Net income came in above expectations, but for a non-recurring reason.
| 3Q26 Indicator | Expected | Actual | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net revenue | R$ 16.8 billion (analyst consensus) | R$ 16.52 billion | Slightly below, despite the record |
| Adjusted EBITDA | R$ 5.9 billion (Bloomberg median) | R$ 5.7 billion | 3.1% below; gap explained by a temporary adjustment |
| Net income | R$ 1.27 billion (Ativa estimate) | R$ 2.08 billion | Above, but driven by derivatives |
| Pulp cash cost | ~R$ 778/t (Ativa) | R$ 825/t | R$ 47/t above expectations |
Genial notes that the R$ 183 million difference is smaller than a R$ 210 million elimination of pulp sold to Arbex that has not yet been resold. This amount will return to earnings once Arbex sells the final product. For this reason, the firm viewed the quarter as "in-line." Net income tells a different story: Suzano's financial result was positive by R$ 1.146 billion, compared to a negative R$ 1.2 billion projected by Ativa. Excluding this effect, the brokerage estimates net income would have stood at approximately R$ 0.7 billion. The R$ 2.08 billion figure, a 6% increase over R$ 1.96 billion in the third quarter of 2025, relies on currency derivative mark-to-market gains. A favorable exchange rate in one quarter does not guarantee identical earnings in the next.
A pulp cash cost of R$ 825/t comes as no surprise to our regular readers. Suzano revised its full-year guidance to this level, and we explained the cost revision and the debt target of below US$ 14 billion on the same day as the earnings release. The new data point is how much Arbex generates.
How Much Profit Stays From Every R$ 100 Arbex Sells?
Significantly less than in the pulp business, which explains the gap between revenue and net income. According to the 3Q26 earnings release, the EBITDA margin for the company as a whole dropped from 43% to 34%. The margin dilution becomes clear when comparing the adjusted EBITDA generated per R$ 100 of sales across segments:
Arbex has a positive point in its favor. The consumer goods segment delivered R$ 803 million in EBITDA—with R$ 694 million coming from Arbex on a 100% basis, topping our R$ 632 million expectation, wrote Genial. The business delivered what it promised. However, a return of roughly 16% on revenue (R$ 694 million on R$ 4.30 billion, our calculation) represents a different business model, and the record hides one detail: 49% of that belongs to Kimberly-Clark. Based on our estimate, Suzano's economic share of Arbex's EBITDA was roughly R$ 354 million for the quarter.
Excluding Arbex, EBITDA stood near R$ 5.0 billion. Factoring the temporary elimination back in brings it to around R$ 5.2 billion, virtually matching the third quarter of 2025 (our estimate based on the reported 9% growth). The pulp business did not deteriorate, but it did not grow either. What about cash flow? Here the news is better.
Do Cash Flow and Debt Support the Arbex Acquisition?
For now, yes. Operating cash flow totaled R$ 3.8 billion for the quarter, up 12%. Accounting free cash flow was negative at R$ 3.03 billion because it includes the acquisition payment. Adjusted free cash flow, excluding expansion projects and distributions, generated R$ 2.63 billion, up 25% from the third quarter of 2025. Leverage of 3.7x in dollar terms was already anticipated and remains inflated because the figures reflect only three months of Arbex operations. The company reaffirmed its guidance to close 2026 with net debt below US$ 14 billion.
Little in the short term, and nothing for dividends. With debt reduction prioritized until reaching US$ 11 billion in 2027, expecting distributions above the R$ 1.12 per share paid over the last 12 months—a yield of roughly 2.1% at Friday's price—is difficult. The record revenue does not increase your slice of earnings, as part of the new top line belongs to the partner. The primary driver for the stock remains the dollar-denominated price of pulp. Arbex reduces dependency on that commodity cycle, at the cost of a lower margin.
SUZB3: Buy or Sell After Earnings?
Brokerages remain divided. Ativa maintained a neutral rating. BTG maintained a buy rating with a price target of R$ 72, acknowledging that EBITDA came in 2% below consensus. Safra views the outlook for Suzano as positive. Ahead of the earnings release, Citi had lowered its price target while keeping its buy rating, signaling that market optimism depends heavily on foreign exchange movements.
Our recommendation remains unchanged: hold. Our fair value estimate is R$ 47.63, within a wide range of R$ 24.81 to R$ 68.22 due to diverging valuation models. At R$ 53.40, the stock trades roughly 11% above that midpoint. Based on trailing 12-month earnings (R$ 6.62 per share), the P/E ratio sits around 8x. The stock is not expensive for a global industry leader, but it offers little margin of safety. Investors looking to build a position would find more comfort closer to our fair value estimate.
- Arbex delivered EBITDA above expectations in its first consolidated quarter and diversified revenue away from pulp.
- Operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow both expanded, supporting the 2026 debt target.
- The temporary R$ 210 million elimination will return to earnings once Arbex resells the pulp.
- The revenue record is accounting-driven: excluding Arbex, revenue was flat, and 49% of the joint venture belongs to Kimberly-Clark.
- Net income relied on derivatives; Ativa estimates the core figure at roughly R$ 0.7 billion without this impact.
- The EBITDA margin fell by 9 percentage points and pulp cash costs ran higher than anticipated, leaving little room for larger dividends.
