The question that interests the quoter when he sees a result of R$ 0.17/quoted In a fund that usually generates R$ 0.12–0.13 is immediate: "the result rose, so will I receive more?". The short answer is: não neste mês. The distribution for June, paid in July 14, was from R$ 0.12/quoted — within the standard. The surplus remained in the reserve. And that, contrary to what it seems, is good news. Let's go by parts.
Cash Result vs. Distribution: Why They're Not the Same Thing
O O O profit or loss on operating income is how much money the fund effectively generated in the month (CRAs interest, corrections, adjustments). Já a distribuição That's when the fund manager decides to return to the cottage. A Fiagro is obliged to distribute at least 95% of the result throughout the year, but is free to smooth month by month — to hold surplus in the fat months to bank the lean months.
That's exactly what happened. O O O AGRX11 R$ 0.17 generated, distributed R$ 0.12 and saved the difference R$ 0.05. Why was the June result so high? Por um evento não recorrente: the adjustment in the price of CRA Agrosepac, which went on to incorporate fines, moras, waiver fee and curve adjustment after the credit was regularized. In other words: not count on R$ 0.17 every month 0.17. It's a point peak, not a new level.
The waiver of the CRA CAM: more R$ 0.09 arriving in July
Here comes the novelty that has not yet appeared in any published results. In July, the repactuation of the CRA CAM generated one. waiver fee de R$ 1.676.442,29 — o equivalente a R$ 0.09/quoted.
Somando o resultado ordinário de julho (algo próximo dos R$ 0,12–0,13 habituais) a esses R$ 0,09 do waiver CAM, julho tende a ser outro mês de resultado forte. But notice the pattern: once again the fund manager will probably go. reforçar a reserva instead of inflating the dividend of the month. This is conservative management, and in an agro credit fund — a volatile sector subject to default — it is the behavior expected of those who think about the sustainability of the dividend, not the straw fire.
Denice in judicial recovery: what really changes the truth
The point that requires coldness. In July, the a Denice — which represents — representing 4,74% do patrimônio líquido — brought an application for judicial recovery. Scarecrow, but the devil lives in the details:
- The management of the company has not made provision for this exhibition.
- A justificativa: garantia de 329% about the value of CRA and one CRA Senior structure with 50% subordination structure. — that is, half the paper serves as a mattress before AGRX11 takes any damage.
Translated: even if Denice breaks ugly, there are more than three times the value of the debt in collateral, and the bottom is in the front row to receive. It is a risk to monitor closely (RJ is always a time-consuming and unpredictable process), but the credit design was made precisely to absorb this type of shock. It is not the CRA Agrogalaxy of life, which is 99% provisioned — Denice has real ballast behind it.
The reserve of R$ 0.31 holds the lock?
With the June surplus, the reserve rose for. R$ 0.31/quoted — enough to bank close to it. 2,6 meses dividend even if the fund stops generating cash. This is the shock absorber of the thesis. If one of the CRAs in observation (Denice, Hinove) delays payment, the fund manager can hold the distribution at the current level for a long time without "breaking" the dividend. And with the CAM waiver coming in July, this reserve tends to get fatter even more.
Box in 19% of PL: risk or opportunity?
The bottom box rose from 16.7% (May) to 16.7% (May) 19% do PL In June. Caixa alto tem dois lados. The bad: Stopped money yields less than the CRAs (average return of the allocated wallet is of CDI + 5.2%), então cada real ocioso dilui levemente o dividendo. The good: gives it. Ammunition for New Acquisitions in better conditions — and the private credit market agro is offering generous spreads. In June, by the way, in fact, No new assets were purchased.. In other words, the fund manager is sitting in a box waiting for opportunity, not for lack of it. It’s patience, not paralysis — as long as that ammunition is actually used in the next few months.
Verdict: has the thesis changed?
Não. The facts of June and July reinforce the current reading., but they didn't see her upside down. The result of R$ 0.17 was a one-time bonus; the waiver CAM is a welcome recipe that probably becomes a reserve; Denice is a headline scare with a sturdy guarantee mattress; and the R$ 0.31 reserve keeps the dividend of ~R$ 0.12/month sustainable in the short term.
With the fund negotiating with the fund P/VP de 0.77 (about 23% discount on the equity value of R$ 10.43) and a one-time discount. DY de 12 meses em 17,63% On the market share, the AGRX11 remains cheap — but the discount exists for a reason: low liquidity (ADTV of ~R$ 332 thousand/day) and a credit portfolio with names in observation. The note remains remaining. 5.5/10 — neutra: a good income carrier for those who cover the risk of agro credit and do not need to enter or leave fast.
Anyone who wants to compare within their own niche of Credit Fiagros can look at the reviews of Credit Fiagros. RZAG11 e GRWA11 — direct peers who help calibrate whether 17% of DY of AGRX11 are well paid for the risk they carry.
