Today's discharge is technical, not fundamental.
O CACR11 It's gone up. +10% today (02/jun), second discharge followed after the fall of 70%+ in May. But Nothing on the grounds has changed: CRI Helvetia follows in default, dividends have been suspended since April, and seven main portfolio CRIs remain in simultaneous stress. . The movement is technical recovery + speculation of unit holders betting on the resumption of the promised works for the 2nd semester. There was no new relevant fact in 02/jun.
For those who are thinking of buying now attracted to the high: this is the classic manual of value trap. . The price has fallen a lot, but the real value of the portfolio has also fallen — and it is still under formal fraud complaint.
What Happened — The Timeline of Recovery
After dropping more of 70% in May (from ~R$ 81 at the end of April to ~R$ 24 at the end of May), the CACR11 emitted two high-powered studs. The sequence was this:
- 29/05/2026: Notice to the Quoters announces R$ 0,23/unit For the purposes of this Regulation, the following definitions shall apply: first distribution after total suspension which has been in force since April. It is 80,8% below the historical ~R$ 1,20/unit, but symbolically indicated that the fund has distributed something again.
- 01/06/2026: CACR11 rises +9,52% (R$ 24,00 → R$ 26,28). The market reads the R$ 0,23 drip as a sign that the sangria stopped.
- 02/06/2026: CACR11 rises higher +10% (R$ 26,00 → R$ 28,60). No new relevant fact — it is pure continuation of the movement begun on the eve.
Why did the unit go up?
The movement is explained by two factors, both of a speculative nature — none of them is improvement of the fundamentals.
1. Technical recovery (rewind). When an asset drops 70%+ in three weeks, the trend is very stretched down. Any positive signage — even a R$ 0,23 dividend against historical R$ 1,20 — can trigger a violent rebound, especially on a hard-selling paper (shortist) that needs to rebuy to make a profit. Forced buybacks amplify high in the short term, but do not create value.
2. Resumption speculation. The fund manager promised to resume the works of the blocked projects (Savoie, Viva/Amalfi, Real Park and Station) in the second half of 2026. There are units betting that if the works unlock, the cash flow returns and the dividend is restored. It's a bet -- not a fact. And she ignores the most serious element: part of the portfolio is under formal complaint of fraud in MPF, Federal Police, BACEN, CVM, B3 and BSM.
The fundamentals have not changed
The two-day discharge did not alter any of the structural problems that brought down the fund in May. The photo of the portfolio remains the same:
| CRI | Balance | % of PL | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saint Andrew (BA) | R$ 125,9 Mi | 24,7% | Formal reporting of fraud |
| Amalfi / Viva Itaparica (BA) | R$ 107,0 Mi | 20,9% | Work on 5,7% — release 2Q26 |
| Savoie (BA) | R$ 59,7 Mi | 11,7% | Stressed / Blocked Project |
| Helvetia (SP) | R$ 58,9 Mi | 11,4% | DEFAULT (22/05) |
| Real Park (SP) | R$ 39,5 Mi | 7,7% | Stressed / Blocked Project |
| Station Vila Madalena (SP) | R$ 18,2 Mi | 3,6% | Habite suspended (TJ-SP) |
Note: CRI Helvetia continues in default since 22/05, with R$ 58,9 million outstanding debt. CRI Santo André — the largest of the fund, with 24,7% of the estate — is under formal complaint of fraud. . And the declared equity VP of ~R$ 96/unit, which produces the P/VP of ~0,30 that so many point out as a "discount", is precisely one of the points questioned by the quotasmen's complaints. Buying R$ 28,60 "because it is 70% below VP" only makes sense if the VP is reliable — and it is not.
The verdict
SALE — The Two - Day High does not change anything
We maintain the verdict of SALE (Note 1,0/10). . The +19% movement in two nails is technical recovery and speculation, not reversal of fundamentals. The fund follows with suspended dividends (R$ 0,23 residual is not income), a default CRI, 100% portfolio in some degree of stress and part of it under suspicion of fraud. The risk here is of almost total loss of capital, not price oscillation.
Who Is Buying Now — And Why It Is Dangerous
The buyer of this high You're not a rent investor.. . Income Investor runs from a trust with suspended dividends. Whoever buys R$ 28,60 is mostly a very short-term speculative profile: traders betting on the continuation of the rebound, or old unit holders buying on average to "dilute the loss" — one of the most dangerous decisions in active collapse.
The pattern is known. HCTR11 and TORD11 they produced exactly this type of rebound during their crises: highs of 10%, 15%, 20% in few nails that attracted new buyers convinced that "the bottom of the well has passed", followed by new legs of fall as each bad operational news (guarantee execution below expected, VP revaluation, new judicial block) was digested by the market. Whoever bought it on the rebound, not in the proven stabilization of dividends, lost it again.
It's the definition of value trap: an asset that seems cheap by the past price, but whose real value continues to deteriorate. In CACR11, the aggravating factor is that the reference value (VP) is under complaint. There is no "high" proof when the account denominator is unreliable.
How the CACR11 got here
If you want to understand the chain of events that brought down the fund in May — the total suspension of dividends, the default of Helvetia and the revelation that the entire portfolio was in stress — read our analysis of May 27: The crisis of the CACR11: CRI Helvetia in default and 100% of the stressed portfolio.
In short: what changed from May to June was only the price of the unit — Up, by two nails. The problems that destroyed the fund all remain in place. Recovery of fundamentals requires unlocked works, renegotiated CRIs and the outcome of fraud complaints. None of this happened on June 2nd.
