ITUB4 stock isn't falling today: as of 10:18 a.m. on Wednesday, the stock was up 2.78% at R$ 39.58 following Itaú's reported recurring net income of R$ 12.6 billion for the third quarter. What's weighing on the stock is something else entirely: CEO Milton Maluhy Filho warned that the bank is "not immune" to a 2027 marked by high interest rates and tighter credit.
Why Is ITUB4 Stock Falling? Today, It's Actually Rising
Anyone searching for that answer likely watched the stock dip over the past few days. Our analysis yesterday on the stock's pullback linked the decline to the elections and anticipation surrounding the Q3 2026 earnings report. Today's sources don't point to a new catalyst for the drop. Instead, they capture the market's positive reaction to the earnings release.
The lingering unease stems from the earnings call, not the ticker screen. A bank that delivers solid numbers while warning that the following year will be tougher forces investors to separate two things: what Itaú delivered versus what Itaú fears.
What Did Itaú's CEO Say About 2027?
“We are not immune, we have never been immune.”Milton Maluhy Filho, CEO of Itaú Unibanco, during the Q3 2026 earnings call (Money Times)
According to Money Times, Maluhy stated that Itaú is better prepared for an adverse cycle, but he made no secret of his concerns. He listed three headwinds: prolonged high interest rates, slower growth, and a potential rise in unemployment. He drew attention to the combination of households facing higher debt-servicing burdens and corporations forced to refinance debt at steeper costs. In his view, this could weigh on both loan demand and client repayment capacity.
The CEO also noted that "economists are all revising their GDP projections for next year." The bank's response, in his words, is to continue growing with discipline: prioritizing more resilient clients and well-collateralized loan segments—a strategy built over several quarters to avoid accelerated expansion during favorable periods.
Does the Q3 2026 Report Support This Caution or Contradict It?
The numbers validate both sides. According to InfoMoney, results came in near or slightly above analyst consensus estimates:
Up about 2% quarter-over-quarter and 6% to 13% year-over-year, depending on analyst methodology.
Return on equity for the quarter.
Growth over 12 months, driven by real estate, payroll-deductible loans, and government-backed SME lending.
Notice that last card: the loan portfolio grew precisely in the segments the CEO highlighted as priorities, those with stronger collateral. The caution isn't just talk; it's already showing up in the credit mix.
Delinquency is where the earnings report shows nuance. Loans past due by more than 90 days ticked up from 1.9% to 2.0%, a movement attributed to the portfolio normalization of small and mid-sized enterprises following the expiration of grace periods in government programs. Meanwhile, early-stage delinquencies (loans 15 to 90 days past due) fell from 1.8% to 1.7%. This second indicator typically serves as a leading indicator for what lies ahead, and it improved. In other words, today's report doesn't show the deterioration the CEO fears; it shows a bank preparing for it.
If Earnings Are Strong and the Warning Is Serious, Why Is the Stock Rising?
According to InfoMoney, the earnings report reinforced the view that Itaú is the institution best positioned to navigate a challenging credit environment, while the broader market also saw an uptick in sentiment. In other words, the caution voiced by the country's largest private bank was interpreted as sound risk management rather than a panic signal. That matters for the sector: if the market leader says the cycle is tightening, peers face the same backdrop with less cushion.
- Earnings and ROE met or beat consensus, with early-stage delinquencies (15 to 90 days) on the decline.
- Loan growth is concentrated in collateralized segments, offering protection if employment softens.
- The CEO cited stretched household budgets and companies refinancing at higher rates: the risk exists, even if it hasn't shown up in the financials yet.
- Delinquencies past 90 days ticked higher, even though the bank attributes this to expiring SME grace periods.
Is Itaú turning off the credit spigot? Based on management's comments, no: the portfolio grew, and the plan is to expand selectively. What changes is who gets funded and under what terms. As for shareholder distributions? Today's sources don't offer updates on dividends; rules regarding the new interest on equity (JCP) payments are covered in our article on the JCP record date.
Nothing in today's report warrants a rush to sell. The recent pullback happened ahead of the earnings release, and the results were strong. The CEO's caution is a warning about 2027, not a reality of 2026: it changes what you should monitor, not necessarily what you should do today. If your investment thesis relies on a calm credit cycle, the sector leader just put you on notice.
What to Watch Moving Forward
The CEO outlined the risk roadmap, and the earnings report provides the benchmark. It is worth cross-referencing our analysis of Itaú's projections and cost of capital, which examines the same outlook from another angle.
15-to-90-day delinquencies — currently at 1.7%, down from 1.8%. If this metric climbs back above 1.8%, the CEO's caution will start showing up in the numbers.
Delinquencies past 90 days — currently at 2.0%, up from 1.9%. If this upward trend persists even after the SME normalization phase passes, the grace-period argument loses weight.
Loan portfolio momentum — grew 10.2% over 12 months. A slowdown would reflect either the bank's selectivity or softer demand, which is the other risk Maluhy highlighted.
Summary: Itaú's CEO warned that the bank is not immune to a tougher 2027, but Q3 earnings show preparation rather than deterioration. ITUB4 investors should track 15-to-90-day delinquencies as a reliable barometer instead of reacting to headline noise.
