- The Sell-Off: The Ibovespa dropped 13.8% and the IFIX fell 5.7% on the first post-election trading day.
- The Defense: Our portfolio gained 2.3% on the day thanks to a 70% allocation to protective assets (Cash, U.S. Dollar, and TLT).
- Transparency: Today we launched a public, immutable blockchain-based allocation record via Bitcoin.
Closing data from B3 and Yahoo Finance confirms that the Brazilian financial market experienced a day of panic on October 26, 2026. The Ibovespa plummeted 13.8%, but our sector-based portfolio—which had already shifted to a defensive stance on October 18—managed to close the day in positive territory.
What Happened to the Ibovespa and the Market Today?
The market priced in a scenario of absolute uncertainty. According to the close of the October 26, 2026 session, the Ibovespa finished at 176,608 points, a brutal 13.8% drop from its previous level of 205,083 points. The IFIX, which tracks real estate investment funds (FIIs), was not immune, falling 5.7% to close at 3,763.9 points.
A drop of 28,400 points on the day.
FIIs suffered from rising interest rates.
The U.S. currency jumped to R$ 5.39.
Protection in long-term U.S. Treasuries and foreign exchange.
While local risk assets (stocks and FIIs) collapsed, defensive hedges surged. The U.S. dollar climbed 8.7% to reach R$ 5.39, and the TLT (long-term Treasury ETF) measured in reais followed suit with a 9.1% gain. This divergence is what protected investors positioned outside of Brazilian risk.
What Did We Do on October 18 and Why?
We cut our risk exposure in half before the election results. On October 18, 2026, still unaware of who would win the runoff, we determined that the risk premium on stocks and FIIs no longer justified the political uncertainty. With the Ibovespa above 200,000 points and the IFIX near its highs, these assets could no longer be considered "cheap."
Our decision was clear: triple our cash position (from 10% to 30%) and increase exposure to long-term U.S. interest rates (raising TLT from 10% to 15%). To fund this, we cut our exposure to the Ibovespa, FIIs, and auction real estate in half. The goal was not to "guess" the winner, but to ensure capital protection if the market reacted poorly. And it did.
The Measured Impact: How Much Did the Shift Protect Your Portfolio?
The difference between the new portfolio and the old one was 1.7 percentage points in a single day. According to our internal calculations via the script apurar_dia.py, the portfolio with current weights (set on October 18) gained 2.3% during this October 26 session. Had we maintained our previous allocation, the gain would have been just 0.6%.
It is important to note our methodology: we used the same closing prices for both simulations. Cash yields the CDI rate, while the U.S. dollar, TLT, and Ibovespa track official exchange rates and prices. Assets like auction real estate and IPCA+-linked investments are treated as stable since they lack daily market pricing. This single-session result demonstrates that asset allocation matters far more than picking any individual asset.
How to Verify It: Our New Public, Immutable Record
Starting today, every change to our portfolio is permanently recorded on Bitcoin. We created the /transparencia/ page so no one can claim we "changed the portfolio after the fact." Each allocation file is linked to the previous one via a SHA-256 hash and timestamped using OpenTimestamps.
We want to be 100% transparent about limitations: this registry was created today, October 26, 2026. Therefore, prior allocations (from January through October 18) were reconstructed from our internal history and carry the "reconstituted" label. Their timestamp proof starts today. Moving forward, every move will be recorded on the exact day it occurs. Today's entry, "Post-election: allocation maintained," is the first record logged natively and immediately.
What's Next? How Will We Manage the Portfolio?
We are keeping our allocation exactly as it is. Although the U.S. dollar and TLT rallied by about 10% and now represent a larger share of the portfolio due to valuation gains, we have no plans to trim these positions right now. Our view is that the U.S. dollar could still head toward the R$ 5.50 to R$ 5.60 range by the end of the year.
Short-term trend supported by ongoing fiscal uncertainty.
We still expect difficult periods ahead for local risk assets.
Personally, the channel's founder is already increasing his cash position in CDI within his own portfolio. We believe the environment for stocks and real estate funds could deteriorate further before improving. Consequently, there is no rush to rebalance by selling what went up to buy what fell.
Beware of the "Opportunity" to Buy the Dip
A 13.8% drop is not a simple correction; it is a structural shift. For anyone looking at the Ibovespa at 176,000 points and thinking "everything is cheap," we offer a warning: the market has priced in a negative scenario with no immediate prospect of recovery. The jump in interest rates and foreign exchange indicates that Brazil's risk profile has stepped up to a higher level.
If you followed our sector allocation, you can sleep better tonight. If you are 100% invested in the stock market, now is a time for patience rather than panic. Do not try to catch a falling knife; focus on building cash for when the dust genuinely settles.
This article reflects the opinion of the Rico aos Poucos channel and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Review our portfolio at /setores/ and our transparency proof at /transparencia/.