For the specialists interviewed by InfoMoney, yes, it is worth it: fixed-rate yields above 15% and IPCA+ rates near 8% in real terms present an attractive entry point. Their unanimous caveat is to buy in installments and commit only funds that can remain invested until maturity.
Is It Worth Investing in Tesouro Direto at Over 15% a Year?
Yes, but with caution, according to analysts consulted by InfoMoney. Yields on Brazilian government bonds have surged since President Lula's reelection. In two weeks, the shorter-term inflation-linked bond jumped from IPCA + 6.72% a year to a real yield of 7.82%, and the short-term fixed-rate bond climbed from 12.90% to over 15% on Friday (6). For first-time buyers, the recommendation is unanimous: enter gradually. Matheus Villela, of Aware Investments, suggests dividing the investment into three or four tranches over three to six months.
In practice, the question is whether these yields represent a bargain or the start of something worse. The answer depends on what drove yields higher, and it was not the central bank.
“On longer-term bonds, fiscal perceptions weigh more heavily than the Selic rate.”Maria Carolina Luchesi, investment specialist at Hike Capital, speaking to InfoMoney
Why Did Yields Cross 15% If the Selic Rate Did Not Rise?
The driver is anxiety over government finances. Copom, the central bank's rate-setting committee, kept the Selic benchmark rate at 13.75% on Wednesday (4), but bond yields move independently, embedding the risk premium investors demand to lend to the government over several years. The most tense moment occurred on October 26. On that day, according to InfoMoney, fixed-rate bonds saw their largest daily jump in historical series, and trading was temporarily suspended—an episode we explain in why Tesouro Direto halted trading.
The rise was not a straight line. A month ago, notes paying close to or above IPCA + 8% had disappeared from the Tesouro Direto storefront, according to Seu Dinheiro, and on October 8 the Treasury sold fixed-rate bonds in its largest auction since 2020. This volatility shows that yields can fall as fast as they rose, and they could also climb further. JPMorgan projected that real-denominated government bond yields could reach 15.5% in a pessimistic scenario. That outcome depends on the fiscal adjustment measures the government puts forward, a topic we cover in what Lula is expected to announce regarding fiscal adjustment.
So which bond should you choose? It depends on your investment horizon and your outlook for inflation.
Fixed-Rate, IPCA+, or Selic: What Do They Pay Today?
| Bond | Yield (Nov 5) | Specialist Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Tesouro Selic | Selic 13.75% | Yields about 11.6% a year net; ideal for emergency reserves |
| Prefixado 2029 | 14.94% | Preferred by Luchesi and Villela: near 15% and less volatile |
| Prefixado 2032 | 15.34% | Higher yield, but experiences sharper price drops when rates rise |
| Prefixado with semiannual coupons 2037 | 15.21% | Pays interest every six months; longer maturity |
| IPCA+ 2032 | IPCA + 7.92% | Luchesi sees 2029 to 2032 as the optimal balance |
| IPCA+ 2040 | IPCA + 7.62% | Villela leaves long-term bonds for retirement planning |
| IPCA+ 2050 | IPCA + 7.48% | Exhibits the highest price volatility |
The yields in the table are those recorded by InvestNews following the Copom meeting. The Prefixado 2029 hovers around 15% and sometimes drops below: on Friday morning (6) it paid 14.78%. Luchesi's calculation for Tesouro Selic: with CDI near 13.65% a year and a 15% income tax rate for investments held over two years, the net return is around 11.6% annually.
To choose between fixed-rate and IPCA+ bonds, examine implied inflation. Based on our estimate comparing the Prefixado 2032 with the IPCA+ 2032, which mature in the same year, the market prices in average inflation near 6.9% a year through maturity (1.1534 ÷ 1.0792 − 1). If the IPCA index exceeds that level, the IPCA+ bond outperforms. If inflation comes in lower, the fixed-rate bond wins.
What does this mean in reais? At the price of R$ 481.63 on Nov 5, R$ 10,000 buys approximately 20.76 units of the Prefixado 2032. At maturity in January 2032, each unit is worth R$ 1,000, totaling R$ 20,763 gross. Deducting the 15% income tax on the gain leaves about R$ 19,150 (our estimate, excluding custody fees). In Tesouro Selic, assuming the Selic rate remains at 13.75% over the same period, the estimated return is around R$ 17,600. This advantage only materializes if the Selic rate drops during that window and you hold the bond to term. Selling early changes the math.
Did Investors Who Bought Before the Spike Lose Money?
Only those who sell now. When yields rise, existing bonds drop in price. According to Luchesi, the rise of slightly over 1 percentage point in yields since October 23 reduced the price of the IPCA+ 2032 bond by roughly 6%. Fixed-rate bonds fared worse: the Prefixado 2032 lost about 10% since October 23. Investors who hold to maturity receive the contracted yield, and the paper loss disappears from their statement. That was our recommendation in late October in how to invest in Tesouro after the reelection.
The same rule applies to new buyers today. If yields climb to JPMorgan's 15.5% pessimistic scenario, today's buyers will see their positions in the red temporarily. Dollar-cost averaging mitigates this: each tranche enters at a different yield, removing the pressure to time the market. Villela emphasizes that holding the bond until maturity is what allows the contracted yield to be realized.
Pros and Cons of Buying Now
- Fixed-rate bonds yielding over 15% outperform Tesouro Selic, while the Selic rate sits at 13.75%, nearly 1.5 percentage points lower.
- IPCA+ notes yielding close to 8% secure a real return above inflation that was unavailable a month ago.
- Bonds maturing between 2029 and 2032 pay nearly as much as ultra-long bonds while exhibiting less volatility. Lucas Oliveira, of Nexgen Capital, focuses on horizons of two to six years.
- The yield spike stems from fiscal risk, and it remains uncertain whether the promised fiscal adjustment will be delivered. If not, yields could climb higher.
- Selling before maturity can result in losses. Emergency funds do not belong in fixed-rate or IPCA+ bonds.
- Maturities in 2040 and 2050 pay less than the 2032 bonds while experiencing significantly higher volatility.
If you are investing for the first time, our step-by-step guide to buying Tesouro Direto explains how to open an account and select a bond. If your concern is runaway government debt, read our analysis on the backup plan for public debt and inflation risks. In that scenario, IPCA+ bonds offer better protection than fixed-rate options.
Summary: Specialists interviewed by InfoMoney indicate that current yields are worth capturing, and the math supports it. Fixed-rate bonds outperform Selic if held to term, and IPCA+ notes win if inflation exceeds roughly 6.9% a year. The pitfall is deploying all capital at once or using funds you might need before maturity. Their recommended strategy: keep emergency reserves in Tesouro Selic, target maturities between 2029 and 2032, and stagger purchases over three to six months.
