AGE: AGE has been postponed and the reserve falls months ago — is it still worth accumulating?

What has changed in the June report?

The management report of June/2026 (delivered in 14/07) brought five facts that touch on the thesis. The most important thing is not the larger dividend — it is what it is. happened: the assembly of the merger, which should have been convened in June, was pushed forward again.

Why was AGE really delayed?

The official justification — "marking readjustments still in progress" — seems bureaucratic, but it has a practical meaning that directly affects your pocket.

Before merging four funds, the trustee needs the equity value of each to be in place. Correct. The account of the merger is made as follows: each fund enters the new fund by its equity value, and the quotist receives shares of the resulting fund in proportion to what he brought. It's called the call. of exchange relations of exchange relations and exchange relations of exchange relations.

Now imagine that one of the four funds has a problematic CRI marked in accounting. ← Along the way of the real value. If the merger were made today, the shareholder of this fund would receive it. More quotes than you deserve in the new fund — at the expense of those who brought an honestly marked wallet. That would be an unfair transfer of value between quotationists.

That's why Patria is reviewing these markups before they mess with the exchange relationship. And the clue that there is still work to be done is in the balance sheet itself: since May, the four funds (PCIP, VCJR, RBRR and RPRI) have been recognizing it. Provisions Provisions — that is, admitting losses on assets that were marked above the real. Postponement is not administrative laziness. It is the process of clearing the marking before melting. Chato, more correct.

The reserve is falling — how long does it last?

This is the point that the dividend of R$ 1.25 disguises. In June, the Distribuible Result Distributible Result — how much the fund effectively generated cash — was R$ 1.18 per share. But the fund distributed R$ 1.25. The difference of R$ 0.07 came out of the R$ 0.07 Result reserve result reserve, that mattress that the FIIs keep to soften weak months.

The problem is that this is not punctual. The reserve has been falling for three consecutive months:

At the current pace — something between R$ 0.06 and R$ 0.07 consumption per month — the account is direct: with R$ 0.80 reserve, the mattress lasts about about R$ 0.80. 11 to 13 months If nothing changes. It's not a short-term emergency, but it's a clock counting.

Only "if nothing changes" is the fragile part of the account. There is a favourable wind on the horizon. If Copom continues cutting Selic, CDI falls. And here is the mechanics that many ignore: the VCJR11 wallet is 96% indexed to IPCA+. The cost of it. Charger Charger these roles (the money that "could render" in the CDI) get relatively cheaper when the CDI drops, so the CDI drops. Real Real Estate Spread that the catch fund tends to increase. Minor Selic is good for the distributable result of a IPCA+ paper background.

CRI Moreias: restructuring OK or yellow sign?

The CRI Moreias — a lot financing on the coast of Ceará — expired in June and June. was not paid in vencimento.. When a debtor fails to pay on time, the fund has two exits: execute the guarantees (delayed, uncertain) or restructure. The Fatherland chose to restructure via restructuring. Dation in payment payment.

Dation in payment is when the debtor delivers an asset (here, R$ 22 millions in goods/rights) to pay off part of the debt, instead of money. In addition, the fund put R$ 5 millions new to the lotting capex — fresh money to touch the work and unlock sales that will eventually pay the CRI. Arose from there the "CRI Moreias II"::

How to read this without illusion: a CRI that expires and needs payment is, by definition, credit. sub-standard sub-standard sub-standard sub-standard sub-standard — below the standard, even with the guarantees maintained. It is not a clean default, but it is also not a healthy role. The extended term (+2.5 years) and the migration from IPCA to CDI show that the debtor did not have cash to honor the original schedule.

The good news is that the 23.5% LTV% 23.5% LTV. LTV (loan-to-value) is the ratio between the debt and the value of the collateral. A LTV of 23.5% means that the warranty is worth more than four times what you owe. If the worst happens and the fund needs to run, there is plenty of fat to absorb the loss. Added to the small size (~2% of PL), CRI Moreias is a controllable problem, not a threat to the thesis.

Why 19% P/VP imports so much here

In an ordinary FII, buying at a discount on equity is just a safety margin. No. VCJR11, because of the pending merger, the discount can turn around. capital gains explicit explicit equity gains — depending on the criterion of the exchange relationship.

The precedent is the precedent or the precedent is the precedent. PSEC11, an earlier consolidation of the Fatherland itself in which the exchange was made. by equity value (VP), not by the market price. If the AGE of the VCJR11 follows the same path, the account is as follows:

That's why selling now, at the bottom of the discount, is delivering this arbitration for free to anyone who stays. But there is the other side of the coin, and it is risky to wait:

• The AGE may delay more. It has been postponed once before. If it takes 6 to 12 months, the quoter gets stuck in a transition fund, without clarity, without knowing the exchange relationship, with the reserve diminishing in half-time.
• The criterion may not be the VP. The precedent PSEC11 is a good sign, but it is not a guarantee. If the exchange is by market, the gain of +24% evaporates.
• The discount may close for other reasons. before the merger — which would be good for those who already have, but shortens the window of purchase with discount.

For the common shareholder: Is the dividend sustainable?

The dividend jump — from R$ 1.00 in May to R$ 1.25 in July — was welcomed. And the result of R$ 1.18 in June was the R$ 1.18 Best of last 12 months months 12 months. What drives? What drives? IPCA. June inflation rose, and as 96% of the portfolio is IPCA+, the burden of these papers rises together. It makes economic sense: month of high inflation is month of fat result for indexed paper background.

The history of the distributable result shows the typical volatility of a paper FII:

The honest reading: the average of the last 12 months is close to R$ 0.90, not R$ 1.18. June was a peak, helped by inflation. Distribute R$ 1.25 on an average result of R$ 0.90 only holds as long as there is a reserve — and the reserve, as we saw, is shrinking. The unitholder should treat R$ 1.25 as one. Temporary ceiling Temporary ceiling, not like the new normal. The realistic floor continues in the house of R$ 1.00.

The attention points that follow on the table.

It is worth registering two points that are worth registering two points that are worthwhile. worsened: the sale of the CRIs UNACORP and UNACORP SUB ZQX (R$ 15.2 million) already had the loss of R$ 0.47 / unit recognized in May via rescheduling — does not beat in June again. and the e. the watchlist has not won any new CRI at risk. The known problems are still monitored; no new problems appeared in this month’s balance sheet.

Do you expect to sell or sell?

If you are already a quoter, the answer is: Hold and, if fit into your plan, accumulate with parsimony.. Selling R$ 74.44 is crystallizing the discount of 19% just on the eve of a merger that, by the precedent of the fund manager himself, tends to convert units by equity — which would return R$ 92.26 per unit. The real risk of the thesis is not the wallet (solid, HG, no leverage); it is the one; it is the one. High Speed: a AGE that delays too much and a reserve that shrinks while the dividend insists on staying above what the fund generates.

If you don't have it yet, the discount offers an asymmetric entry — but enter with the awareness that R$ 1.25 is ceiling, not floor, and that clarity about merger can take months. It is a position for those who have patience and horizon, not for those who need liquidity or certainty in the short term.

Read also the previous analysis, May: VCJR11 — what the consolidation of the Fatherland does with its units.

About the author The author

Article author Article author Edin Bauer

Investor and founder of Rich to the Few.

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