I'm a unitholder. I do. HABT11. . What changes?
Short answer: the thesis does not change, but the surveillance increases. Verdict follows MANTER, note drops from 5,6 for 5,3. . The DPS follows on R$ 0,95/month (stopped 8 months ago, set/25 → mar/26), which gives 18,84% DY on the unit of R$ 74,19.
Maximum impact already visible: if the latent impairment of R$ 51,74 Mi to become provision, are ~R$ 6,36 per unit (R$ 51,74 Mi ? 8.126.783 units). But the market has already priced: unit R$ 74,19 vs VP of R$ 95,62 is a discount of R$ 21,43 per unit — three times greater than latent impairment.
Objective triggers to review the position: DPS below R$ 0,85 OR 3+ new CRIs migrating to alert/stress in RG 226 OR PDD constitution above R$ 30 Mi at once. Suggested maximum position: 5% of FIIs portfolio.
What RG 1Q26 has revealed
Until the previous quarter, the unit holder of HABT11 I had to read the name of the troublesome CRIs one by one and cross-reference the monitoring report. O Management Report of the first quarter of 2026, released in May, changed the game: for the first time XP Vista published the Formal classification of each Core portfolio CRI. . It's three statuses: normal, alert and stressed.
The result of this quarterly photograph, below, is the focus number of this reanalysis:
And an observation that passed beat in the disclosure: the Core portfolio shrinked from 44 to 40 CRIs In a quarter. 4 CRIs left the book between the previous RG and the 1Q26 — by early settlement, repurchase or down, without individual details. In a background of 40 CRIs, losing 4 in a quarter is movement that needs to be monitored.
The number that matters: impairment of R$ 51,7 Mi without PDD
The RG 1Q26 simultaneously published two values that, in healthy funds, usually walk close:
| Metric | Value | Practical reading |
|---|---|---|
| Curve value of the CRI portfolio | R$ 735,06 Mi | What's "on paper" worth by the hired coupon? |
| Market Marking (MtM) | R$ 683,32 Mi | What the market pays today for the same portfolio |
| Latent impairment | R$ 51,74 Mi (−ZQX1ZX) | How much the market already discounts from the curve |
| PDD made up of the fund | R$ 0,00 | Management NOT provided expected loss |
The secondary market has already specified a potential loss of 7% on the CRI portfolio. The trust accounts, not yet. This mismatch has two possible readings and the unit holder needs to understand both to decide what to do.
What PDD is and why it matters
PDD (Provision for Dubious Debtors) is the accounting way to recognise expected credit loss before of default to be confirmed. When the market marking of a CRI drops 7% below the curve and the bottom does not constitute PDD, the management is saying, "This is the prize of illiquidity, not expected loss—we will deliver the whole curve."
If you're right, impairment disappears in the next cycle. If you're wrong, the PDD comes later, at once, and hits the unit and the DPS in the same quarter. In paper FIIs, postponing PDD usually means greater shock at the time of recognition.
The CRIs in monitoring, with name and value
The RG 1Q26 quantified the problematic positions that previously appeared only by name. The top five are:
| CRI | Value | % PL | Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZAVIT-MEDABIL | R$ 21,89 Mi | 2,82% | In recovery of credit since 2024 (Industrial shed sale-leaseback, Medabil rental + insurance) |
| Solar Waters | R$ 16,98 Mi | 2,19% | Maturity by deadline issued in Nov/2025. RGFM dropped from 2061% to 100% (flow of payments stopped covering installments). Natos Group, Olympia/SP |
| Capivari Eco Resort | R$ 9,16 Mi | 1,18% | RGFM zeroed (no flow coverage), despite 100% of completed works. Multiproperty in Paraná |
| Ocean Barra (Senior + Sub) | R$ 8,96 Mi | 1,15% | LTV of 110% (senior) and 142% (subordinated) — debt greater than collateral. Construction companies in Sergipe |
| Villa Madalena | R$ 6,41 Mi | 0,82% | Vertical incorporation in SP with works on 0% and sales on 26%. Fragile ballast in very early stages |
| Total monitoring | ~R$ 63,4 Mi | ~8,2% PL | Value greater than latent impairment (R$ 51,7 Mi) — coherent: not every CRI in monitoring turns total loss |
It is worth noting an important symmetry: the total in monitoring (R$ 63,4 Mi) is greater than latent impairment (R$ 51,7 Mi). . This is mathematically consistent — management understands that part of the stressed positions recovers with renegotiation, triggered guarantees, or resumption of flow. The unitholder needs to form his own opinion on this premise.
Why Multiproperty Is The Core Theme
Almost half of the PL (48%) is in CRIs backed in Multi-property — fraction of hotel/resort with time-sharing. It is a sensitive sector to the cycle of tourism and income of PF: the final buyer is a physical person financing a fraction of resort. When it squeezes the household budget, multi-ownership is one of the first to stop paying.
What does that mean for HABT11 wallet?
Of the 8 alert/stress CRIs, at least 4 are multiproperty (Solar das Águas, Capivari, ZAVIT in part and Vila Madalena out — this is incorporation). Concentration in the segment is a deliberate management thesis (IPCA+13,75% in Hot Beach You 2, new quarter CRI), but is also the central origin of deterioration.
If you buy HABT11♪ You're buying ♪ a diversified portfolio by name, but concentrated by theme. . Multi-property is the dominant theme — and that is what will define the outcome of the next 24 months.
The positive side of the quarter
ID 1Q26 didn't just bring bad news. Four materially positive points:
1) XPHR Sub zerou — intragroup conflict solved. The position in FII XPHR (another XP home product) fell from 3,57% for PL 0,12%. . It was one of the largest red flags of intra-group governance. Management's cleaned up.
2) RBRR11 entered as the largest position of the FII block. The FIIs block of HABT11 (9,96% from PL) gained institutional weight: the RBRR11 entered as the highest position (3,48% from PL). RBRR11 is a High Grade paper FII — improves the aggregate credit profile of the block.
3) Selic falling — wind for. The Copom cut 25 bps in May: Seal 14,50%. . XP Asset projects 14,00% at the end of 2026. For paper FIIs, Selic falling is wind in favor: the discount of P/VP compresses, the unit rises structurally.
4) Rare transparency in the segment. The publication of the formal classification by CRI (32/4/4) is unusual among high-yield paper FIIs. O HABT11 It's being more transparent than most pairs. This weighs positively — even when the content of transparency is bad, it is better to know than not to know.
Bucket comparison: high-risk residential paper
In the high-risk residential paper FIIs buffer (9 funds), the HABT11 Stays in 5th place, below pairs as LIFE11, RBRY11 and FYTO11:
| Ticker | Note | Position |
|---|---|---|
| LIFE11 | 7,4 | 1º |
| RBRY11 | 7,0 | 2º |
| FYTO11 | 6,5 | 3º |
| HABT11 | 5,3 | 5º |
The relative note of 5,3 reflects the downgrade of 5,6 caused by RG 1T26 — not by surprise, but by quantification. . The unitholder now knows exactly where the risk is. The absolute note of 6,0 keeps the bottom out of the critical tail of the bucket, and the P/VP of 0,7759 shows that the market makes coherent reading: skepticism, yes; panic, no.
Scenarios for the next six months
| Scene | Probab. | DPS | Quota | DY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base — stable IPCA, Selic drops to 14%, 32 normal CRIs sustain flow | 60% | R$ 0,95–1,00 | R$ 75–85 | 14–15% |
| Optimist — IPCA returns to 5%+, management recovers 1–2 CRIs in monitoring | 20% | R$ 1,05–1,15 | R$ 90–95 | 14–15% |
| Pessimistic — default spreads, PDD of R$ 30–50 Mi constituted, multi-ownership deteriorates | 20% | R$ 0,85 | R$ 65 | 15–16% |
Mathematical hope: base + optimistic scenario (80% combined) support DY in the 14–15% range with recovery unit up to R$ 90. The pessimistic scenario (20%) takes ~R$ 9–10 per unit and R$ 0,10/month from DPS. The risk/return is asymmetric for those who enter below R$ 73.
Action plan by profile
For those who already have HABT11
Maximum position: 5% of the total portfolio of FIIs. Above that, the concentration in multi-ownership becomes risk that the yeld does not compensate.
Mandatory monitoring: Open the quarterly ID. CRI status is the real thermometer. There's no substitute.
Green light to maintain: stable DPS in R$ 0,95–1,00, number of CRIs in alert/stress stable (≤8), possible PDD gradually constituted without shock.
Yellow sign: 1–2 new CRIs entering alert on RG 226 (no PDD yet).
Red light (sell): DPS falling below R$ 0,85 OR 3+ additional CRIs migrating to stress OR PDD constitution above R$ 30 Mi at once.
For those who are thinking of buying
Entry price: below R$ 73,00. Above that, the security margin does not compensate for the explicit credit risk.
Minimum horizon: 24 months. High-yield paper FII needs time for Selic + IPCA cycle to take effect.
What is NOT HABT11: He's not a replacement for CRI High Grade FIIs. Yeah. high yield real, with explicit credit risk. . Those seeking stable paper income should look at other names; the HABT11 only makes sense for those who understand that the IPCA+11,36% coupon comes with 20% of the portfolio in monitoring.
Maximum Allocation: 2–3% of the total investment portfolio.
Before you buy: read the entire RG 1Q26. It's not optional.
What's changed and what's still the same
What's changed: the RG 1T26 gave name, number and classification to what was previously narrative. 20% wallet on formal alert/stress. R$ 51,7 Mi latent impairment without PDD. The note drops from 5,6 to 5,3 because of this — not by surprise, by quantification. . The unitholder now knows exactly where the risk is.
What follows equals: the structural thesis has not changed. O HABT11 is a high-yield paper FII with 48% in multi-property, intra-XP governance and 18,84% DY which is fair compensation for real risk. The P/VP of 0,7759 (25% discount) already employs the latent impairment three times. The verdict MANTER It survives the quarter.
Verdict: Maintain surveillance — note 5,3/10
The difference between winning and losing with HABT11 in the next 24 months It's not in today's quote. — it is in the discipline of reading the quarterly RG, monitoring the objective triggers (DPS below R$ 0,85, 3+ new stress CRIs, PDD block) and not confusing the background with CRI High Grade.
Whoever understands this, finds a real defensible Yield. Anyone who ignores it will be surprised next quarter. RG 1T26 hasn't changed what HABT11 is -- changed what the unit holder may pretend not to see.
